Judge, JRod, Turang, Jhonkensy, Wood and Colorado
Judge, JRod, Turang, Jhonkensy, Wood and Colorado
Jun 28, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
Today I’m writing from my scenic perch in Colorado. Enjoying the gentle breeze while looking out over the San Juan Mountains. We plan to be here for 3 - 4 weeks and during that time I plan to mostly do nothing, except a little trout fishing and, of course, watching and writing about baseball.
South Central Colorado
The weekend is here and I always like to take a look at what MLB series looks the most interesting. Here are a couple to watch over the next three days:
Astros v Mets: Both teams are playing exactly .500 baseball. And both have charged back just to get to this point. Each at 8-2 over their last 10 games - and with the Astros enjoying a 7 game winning streak. The Mets are 1 back in the Wildcard race and the Astros are 3 back. It wouldn’t surprise if one or both made the playoffs but the Astros do seem to have the harder path.
Guardians v Royals: If the season ended today both teams are in the playoffs. Cleveland as the AL Central Champs and Kansas City as a wildcard. The Guardians have been the better team and in fact have the 2nd best record in baseball. Each team has a mega star in Jose Ramirez CLE and Bobby Witt Jr. KC. And each team has solid enough pitching. I expect the current standings are representative of what we will see in the second half.
Twins v Mariners: The two teams are separated by just one game in the AL standings. The Twins have gotten it done mostly on offense and the Mariners mostly with pitching. Each has a big wildcard that could change things moving forward. For the Twins, it’s can SP Pablo Lopez reclaim last years form? His last outing was promising. For the Mariners it’s what in the world has happened to OF Julio Rodriguez and can he rebound (more on this below).
Player Spotlights:
I might as well kick this off with the aforementioned Julio Rodriguez OF SEA. I am pretty floored we are halfway through the season and he is still struggling so much. We are talking about a previous MVP candidate who put up 11.3 WAR his first two seasons and is now pacing for only 2 WAR this year while also currently sitting on an 89 wRC+. He is still hitting the ball plenty hard but he is striking out 10% more often and has seen his barrel rate noticeably drop. Additionally Julio’s flyball rate dropped last year and then again this year, so more line drives and ground balls.
Oversimplification, but this is a guy that has always struck out a bit much and has chased too often. Both have gotten worse this year. Julio is also struggling mightily with breaking and off speed stuff. What to do if you own him in fantasy? You probably just ride it out and hope he has a 2nd half jump like he did last year. If you sell, it will be at depressed valuation. That said, I don’t think I would pursue acquiring him in a deal unless the cost was just too good to pass up.
I feel obligated to point out that Aaron Judge is pacing to slightly eclipse his utterly dominant 2022 MVP season. A year in which he had 10.5 WAR and received 28 of 30 1st place MVP votes. His current slash projects to .304/119/58/150 with 54 doubles, 117 walks, a .425 OBP, .702 slug, 1.131 OPS, and 213 OPS+. Compared to 2022 at .311/133/62/131/16 with 28 doubles, 111 walks, .425 OBP, 1.111 OPS, and 210 OPS+. All of this in his age 32 season. It’s remarkable.
Brice Turang is one of the most impactful late round fantasy picks this year. Playing 2B and SS while rotating between leadoff and hitting 9th Turang is pacing for a .288/78/10/64/54 season. The steals are driving a ton of fantasy value. He currently is in 2nd place in steals behind only Elly De La Cruz who has 38. Turang isn’t matching what Corbin Carroll ARI did last year, but it’s not as far off as you might expect. Carroll slashed .285/116/25/76/54 in 2023 and that earned him NL ROY honors as well as a 5th place MVP season. Not suggesting Turang is getting MVP votes but he is shaping up to be on the list of highest value returned against pick or auction salary in fantasy.
Emmanuel Clase probably gets the most attention when it comes to closers this year - and he has been fantastic. But here I am going to point out that Ryan Helsley and Kyle Finnegan have also put up really great numbers without receiving the same level of attention as Clase. This is my thought - sell high on Clase if you have needs elsewhere. If you need saves consider buying Helsley or possibly Finnegan. A bit of caution on Finnegan as I do have a bit of concern he could be impacted by a MLB trade. Either being dealt and setting up elsewhere or the Nationals pushing in and landing a closer that would slot in front of Finnegan.
Prospect Spotlights:
I must start with Seattle Mariners prospect Hogan Windish 1B/2B. Why? Well, during a game at AA this past week Windish erupted for 4 home runs and 9 RBI against the Springfield Cardinals. It’s a career highlight game for anyone. Windish is a 25yo who was drafted in the 7th rd in 2022. While not a prospect that makes many rankers he has shown the ability to hit a bit and to flash power. I’ve seen a lot of Windish this year as he plays for my home team the Arkansas Travelers. If you had told me early in the season that a Traveler would have a game like this I would have said it would be Tyler Locklear or no one. It’s just so improbable. I’m curious to see if Windish has unlocked another level or if the stars just lined up for him in Springfield.
Jhonkensy Noel CLE 1B/OF made his debut this week. Noel is a large man listed at 6’3 250lbs and he likes to hurt the baseball. Still just 22yo Noel has moved from A ball to the big leagues in 4 years - clubbing 96 minor league home runs in the process. He’s going to strike out a bunch, will probably hit for a low average and will crush some mammoth home runs along the way. For fantasy purposes I’m not sure he will be in a full-time role even if he sticks at the big league level. Cleveland loves to platoon plus he has the kinda profile that often ends up sharing time. I think he will be fun to watch, just not a guy I am pursuing for my teams.
Now James Wood WAS OF is absolutely the guy I want on all of my teams but sadly have on just one of them. I stashed Wood on my long running keeper team early in the year and I sure hope it’s about to pay off. Wood has gotten the call and will debut for the Nationals on Monday. He’s considered the games best prospect by most (including me) and the Nationals are giving him elite treatment in lining him up for a debut at home. Wood crushed AAA and he may be able to avoid the rookie blues that have plagued so many high end prospects this year. Just a reminder though, Major League Baseball is hard! So if Wood struggles, stay with him in any non redraft format.
I went digging for a name I am less familiar with and came up with Adrian Del Castillo C ARI. He’s a legit prospect and already at AAA. It’s just that Del Castillo has generally been off my radar (like many non-elite catching prospects) other than being aware of his name and general status.
So, what did I find? A guy that appears to have broken out at AAA this year. His production is noticeably up and his strikeouts are remarkably down. Del Castillo is a left handed hitter who has walked almost 10% of the time this year while striking out just 17% of the time. Along the way he has hit .321 with 14 home runs, 58 runs scored, and 48 RBI. Watching video, Del Castillo’s swing looks pretty solid and it certainly seems his plate approach has advanced. Scouting reports have Castillo’s defense at adequate so up until this breakout he was looking at most likely reaching the big leagues as a backup catcher. I’m not sure that has changed yet but it’s clearly worth keeping an eye on - particularly with proximity.
My last prospect note today is on Brooks Lee MIN SS. I’ve written about Lee several times. What’s new? He’s smoldering hot and the Twins could use his bat right now. Lee can play 2B, SS, and 3B with SS being his primary so far. It may take until the trade deadline to clear up some of the Twins logjams but I expect we see Lee sooner rather than later.
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