2025 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Preview: Targets, Fades and Prospects
Feb 24, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Starting Pitchers: Targets, Fades and Prospects
We are taking a look at Starting Pitchers (SP) to Target and Fade outside the Top 20. This is for redraft only and will also include a prospects that are receiving attention. ADP’s are based on all NFBC 12 team $50s format completed drafts between Jan 16 and Feb 15 (47 total). Projections are from Steamer (unless otherwise noted).
Targets:
The Mets are an improved team and Kodai Senga is critical to their 2025 success. If he is healthy and returns to his 2023 form Senga will anchor the rotation along with Sean Manaea (assuming return from injury). It’s not a strong rotation so you can expect Senga to be leaned on if able. At ADP 154 he could deliver a top 100 performance given his 11 K/9 and 2.98 ERA rookie season. Steamer: 11 wins/165 IP/9.76 K9/3.78 ERA
Ryan Pepiot TAM has an ADP of 174, which seems low given his 3.60 ERA and 9.83 K/9 over 130 IP last year. It’s possible that the considerations of a new home ball park have dropped Pepiot’s stock a bit. Pepiot’s 3 primary pitches (four seam, change, slider) each have a whiff rate over 28%. That’s notable and Pepiot also added a curveball that delivered a 50% whiff. It’s an impressive arsenal and the play here is to bet on the pitcher, not the park, and enjoy a discount. Steamer: 10/165/9.44/4.18 (the ERA PJ is wild given Pepiot has a 3.28 ERA over 208 career IP)
Cristopher Sanchez PHI has been a primary target for me all draft season. Why? His change up is devastating to RHB, he has a very good slider and really only needs a better fastball. So, what has he done over the offseason? Added a cutter to compliment or take over for his hittable sinker. Even with the fastball questions Sanchez delivered a 3.32 ERA over 181 IP last year. A fantasy knock on Sanchez has also been his relatively low career 8.01 K/9. If the cutter helps lift Sanchez to a 9+ K/9 then he could deliver a top 125 performance from an ADP of 188. Steamer: 11/170/7.89/3.48
I started out avoiding Taj Bradley TAM this draft season. Now I am grabbing him at his ADP of 205. Bradley has an interesting arsenal, delivered 10 K/9 last year, and will be just 24yo this season. The former top prospect graded out as a 55 FV featuring a plus fastball and slider with solid command. That presents as solid upside for an SP going this late. Steamer: 10/170/9.46/4.06
Speaking of former top prospects, MacKenzie Gore WAS sure fits the bill. Gore took a meaningful step forward in 2024, driven by a greatly improved ability to reduce hard contact and stay away from the barrel. Gore did this in part by refining his pitch mix, reducing the use of his four seamer and slider. Additionally, he tripled the use of his changeup against RHB - and it was very effective with a 51.2% whiff rate. We are always looking for profit and Gore gives us 4-7 rounds of upside going at an ADP of 216. Steamer: 11/174/9.70/3.75
Nick Pivetta SD was an interesting option at ADP 216 even before landing with the San Diego Padres. Pivetta will give you 150 IP with an ERA around 4 and a K rate nicely over 10/9. It’s not a perfect profile and he does allow too many long balls. Given that we are talking about your 6th or 7th SP this a high floor choice with a level of upside. Steamer: 10/153/10.31/3.88
Like Sanchez earlier, Reese Olson DET has been on my must target list all draft season. Olson is SP3 in Detroit, sitting nicely behind Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty. Comerica is a pitchers park and it’s interesting that Olson was just as good on the road delivering a 3.51 ERA away and 3.54 ERA at home. If Olson had avoided injury and continued his strong 1st half of 2024 (3.30 ERA) we would have zero chance to pick him up at ADP 255. If you want Olson you need to be ready to go in the 220-230 range, if not sooner. He’s already on enough radars that it won’t be surprising to see Olson move up further as Opening Day approaches. Steamer: 9/144/8.24/3.87
Jesus Luzardo PHI could be had in the 300-350 range earlier in draft season. With reports of good health and a trade to the Phillies Luzardo has rightfully pushed up draft boards. He’s still just 27yo and 2023 showcased what he is capable of in throwing 178 IP with a 3.58 ERA and 10.48 K/9. So for 2025 this is mainly about health. Luzardo has a trailing ADP of 261 but is going more in the 220-240 range recently. Steamer: 10/161/9.27/3.94
Wrigley Field can be pitcher friendly, particularly early in the season. Mathew Boyd CHC should benefit as he comes over from Cleveland where he had a strong return from injury. Don’t expect Boyd to be a workhorse, that’s unlikely. But let’s say you can plug him into your rotation 12 weeks of the season at an ADP of 311. That works and that should be his role - a bench arm to plug in based upon matchups or need. Steamer: 8/134/8.97/3.93
DJ Herz WAS is on this list in large part because he has an excellent fastball loaded with horizontal break. Command has been an issue and there is plenty of competition for rotation spots in Washington. So what’s the upside? Herz could be a fairly elite strikeout guy to spot start over the course of the season. At an ADP of 317 he is another arm you are drafting in a bench role, yet one that could surpass safer SP’s going 100+ picks before. Or he could be back at AAA much of the season. I like the play, but only when it fits roster needs. Steamer: 7/125/9.77/3.99
Ryan Weathers MIA has the “reported in great shape” tag and has always carried promise since he was drafted 7th overall in 2018. If healthy and reasonably effective a rotation spot is there. At an ADP of 369 grab Weathers when you can and plop him on your bench. There’s a 100% chance you need bench help during the season and Weathers could be there for you. Steamer: 8/142/8.00/4.18
Will Kris Bubic KC make the rotation or end up back in the pen? Bubic came up a starter and only an elbow injury had him shift to relief work last year. Now healthy, Bubic looks to start the season as the Royal’s #5 SP. His competition was expected to be Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright but both are already sidelined by injury. Bubic is climbing draft boards as he started in the 500’s and is now in the 380 range with an ADP of 401. It feels like 125 IP is likely the cap, so keep that in mind. Steamer: 7/123/8.17/4.12
Fades:
There’s going to be a theme to the fades. SP’s coming off of injury and almost assuredly facing a lighter workload will describe many on this list. Let’s start with Jacob deGrom TEX, who appears to still have elite or near elite stuff. Yet he has only pitched 197.1 innings since the start of 2021. Additionally, deGrom will turn 37yo this season. Steamer has deGrom at 152 IP and there is just little chance of this. Even 125 IP feels like the high end. And yet deGrom is coming off the board at an ADP of 48. That’s potentially 75+ IP you are giving up versus the many other options at or below this 4th to early 5th rd pick. There’s a price where taking deGrom would be warranted, it’s just lower given the considerations. Top 50 is way too early to knowingly take on this much risk. Steamer: 11/152/12.20/2.88 (overstated across the board)
I fully get that Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD will be good. If fact, he looked solid in his spring debut. So, why should we fade? It’s the combination of price (ADP 63) and workload. Yamamoto logged 90 very good IP’s last year. Assuming 150 IP is a reasonable expectation for 2026 the ADP just doesn’t line up. That’s 35-50 IP short of most top arms and here we have at least some level of known injury risk. Yamamoto is really one of the easier fades in redraft. Los Angeles and New York helium is real and at work here. Steamer: 11/159/9.46/3.58
Gerrit Cole NYY lost half of 2024 due to an elbow issue. When he returned his fastball was down almost 1mph, and for the second year in a row. Cole also used the fastball less and reduced his slider use as well. You can interpret this as measures to minimize strain on the elbow although I’m not aware of this being verified. A couple of other considerations include that Cole will turn 35yo this year, has logged almost 2,000 big league innings, and has seen his K rate drop 3 years in a row. So we have an aging star coming off injury while showcasing a decline in effectiveness. Despite this Cole has a crazy high ADP of of 63. Grab Lawrence Butler OAK in this range instead and then pick up someone like Pablo Lopez MIN, Shota Imanaga CHC, or Aaron Nola PHI in the next round or two. Steamer: 12/189/9.37/3.99 (if Cole avoids injury in 2025 it’s still unlikely he sees 175+ IP)
Let’s start by pointing out that Bryce Miller SEA had a 1.96 ERA at home versus 4.07 on the road. Next, consider that his xERA was 3.72 versus an actual of 2.94. Additionally, Miller has a middling K/9 rate of 8.53. Miller has a ton of supporters and he’s only a soft fade for me. Yet at an ADP of 85 there are just more interesting options for that draft capital. Particularly when you consider someone like Logan Webb SF is available 2 rounds later. Steamer: 10/175/8.64/3.90 (versus Webb 12/201/7.82/3.43)
Tyler Glasnow LAD falls into the same health and workload conversation we have discussed. He has never pitched over 134 innings in his 9 year MLB career. In fact, Glasnow has averaged just 74 IP since reaching the big leagues. A fairer way to look at him is probably to focus on his last two seasons where Glasnow averaged 127 IP with a high K rate and a mid-3 ERA. The volume is just not there to warrant the pick at even ADP 100. It’s not as far off as others we have discussed but Glasnow does have elevated health questions given his elbow history. Steamer: 11/144/11.16/3.22
Luis Castillo SEA still throws hard at 95.6 mph but he has seen a steady decline since his peak of 97.4 in 2020. It’s been a heavy workload for Castillo since 2018 and at 32yo you have to wonder if time is catching up to him. The ADP at 98 is less concerning than others yet we could benefit from investing on a player on the upswing versus one with a growing number of question marks. Steamer: 11/184/9.14/3.64
Prospects:
Paul Skenes impact in 2024 redraft was remarkable and also quite rare. Usually young starting pitchers have struggles during their first 20-40 starts. And rarely does someone come up and just dominate the way Skenes did. When deciding whether to take a flier on a rookie SP, particularly one who hasn’t debuted, we have three questions to ask.
When might they arrive in the big leagues? The sooner they come up the more potential value.
How good could they realistically be?
What is the cost to draft?
We’ve already seen reports from the Phillies that Andrew Painter PHI will not see big league action until the 2nd half of 2025. An ADP of 334 is a lot to ask for a pitcher that has only logged 28 IP at AA and none at AAA. Painter is excellent but given the strength of the Phillies rotation combined with where Painter is in his career we are likely to see less than 10 starts from the young righty. Steamer: 4/73/8.19/4.40
Quinn Mathews STL is lining up to be the better rookie Mathews to pursue in 2025. The Cardinals will have opportunities in their rotation and after breezing through the minors last year Quinn should see at least 15 big league starts this year. It’s a reasonable cost at ADP 408 and he often goes in the mid 450’s. Quinn’s a late target for me (6 of 10 so far) and should be for you too. Steamer: 6/92/8.13/3.98
Zebby Mathews MIN is going just a bit after Quinn at ADP 430. The cost is fine if he’s your guy. Currently Zebby is likely #7 on the Twins SP depth chart and it wouldn’t surprise me if Andrew Morris applies some pressure as the season progresses. Zebby should be a solid big league pitcher with excellent command. The question is what will he offer this year? Steamer: 5/89/8.05/4.01
The Pirates showed confidence in their young arms by bringing up Paul Skenes and Jared Jones last year. For 2025, Bubba Chandler is the most likely Buc to impact the big league rotation. I’m in on Chandler, yet have missed out due to his 287 ADP. At 350 I would probably be all over the profile.
Rhett Lowder CIN (ADP 443) will get his chances this year but the production may be rough. Cincinnati is a difficult place to pitch and Lowder has low odds for upside in 2025. Steamer: 7/124/7.37/4.55
There are a lot of mouths to feed in Cleveland and Joey Cantillo was likely pushed out of the initial rotation when the Guardians traded for Luis Ortiz. He’s been sliding in ADP and now sits at 460. Steamer: 5/94/9.26/3.92
Cade Povich BAL is another AL arm that has been sliding down draft ranks. Baltimore’s signing of Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano likely pushed Povich out of the rotation. With an ADP of 490 he’s now in a range where the investment more or less lines up with the potential return. Take a shot after 500 on Cantillo, Povich and others with similar profiles. Steamer: 5/92/8.21/4.24
AJ Smith-Shawver ATL will see big league action again in 2025. The things is it’s hard to see it being more than spot starts or short runs and those are difficult to manage in weekly lineups. You would rather have someone that you have some confidence will run off a string of starts when up versus someone riding the spot start train. It’s unlikely that 2025 is the the year for AJSS.
I had Cade Horton CHC on my list of talented arms that are unlikely to see much time in the Bigs this season. And then Geoff Pontes discussed him during a Baseball America podcast. Pontes, who is plugged in and a strong evaluator, feels like Horton will work his way into the rotation in 2025. The Cubs top 3 SP’s are set and Mathew Boyd should log 20-25 starts as #4. That leaves a group of 5-7 fighting for starts with Javier Assad and Colin Rea likely leading the way. Horton often goes undrafted so this is someone you could grab in the last couple of rounds in hopes that the dominos fall his way. I’ll stay off the profile for 2025, but felt worth mentioning that Pontes sees an opportunity for Horton.
Max Meyer MIA has been on a rollercoaster since 2020 when he was drafted 3rd overall. Meyer lost 18 months of development due to 2022 TJS and returned for 115 combined innings between AAA and MLB last year. The bad news is that it was rough for him over 11 starts with the Marlins. The good news is that he is reportedly adding (needed) to his arsenal and looks locked into the rotation. An ADP of 478 is worth the flyer for 20-25 starts that could be usable, at least in a pinch.
Fangraphs has Brandon Sproat NYM as the 24th overall prospect and carrying a 55 FV. With only 116 minor league (very good) IP it’s unlikely we see a great deal of Sproat in 2025. Yet Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea are already hurt. The Mets rotation is not exactly a strength - so, this could play out any number of ways. Take a flyer if you are on Sproat, you might get 75-100 big league innings or you might get 20.
There has been speculation Chase Dollander COL may break camp with the Rockies. Looking at their rotation, it could happen. But it’s more likely we see him up in June, which could put 15 big league starts on the table. Dollander was excellent at High A and AA last year, logging 118 combined innings. So 150 innings could be in play this year. If you can let go of any Coors Field fears Dollander is a worthy flyer with an ADP in the mid 500’s.
There is a rotational logjam in Washington. This includes Cade Cavalli who logged 8 big league innings last year after returning from an almost 2 year hiatus due to injury. Cavalli last pitched at AAA in 2022 and that’s where he will start off in 2025. The Nationals have already stated that they will manage his workload during the first half of the season so they can bring him up in the 2nd half. This likely puts a max of 10-12 starts on the table for Cavalli who is only being drafted about a 1/3 of the time in the NFBC.
Fangraphs is particularly high on Will Warren NYY. They have him as the #65 overall prospect and sporting a 50 FV. Warren has a solid arsenal led by his sweeper and change. At 25yo Warren still has 2 MILB options and no clear path to a rotation spot. So barring an injury we either see Warren shift to the pen for 2025 or more likely be on standby in AAA to spot start.
Thomas Harrington PIT is a pretty deep dart throw with a chance to see 5-10 starts in the 2nd half. The Pirates signing Andrew Heaney likely has Bubba Chandler as the only rookie we will see in the first half, if then. Harrington did log 46 IP in AAA last season and continued displaying his strong command while seeing his K rate slide. Keep in mind that Harrington currently sits somewhere between 8th and 10th on the Pirates SP depth chart.
Chase Burns CIN, Logan Evans SEA, Tink Hence STL, Logan Henderson MLW, and Carson Whisenhunt SF all fall into the category of unlikely to contribute enough to warrant even a late pick. Take a flyer if you have a feel or a piece of info you can act on but in general this group is unlikely to make more than a late season appearance as a Starting Pitcher at the big league level.
Check back soon for a look at the top Closers.
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