2025 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Preview: Top 20
Feb 17, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Starting Pitchers: Top 20
We are taking a look at our Top 20 Starting Pitchers (SP) from a redraft perspective for 2025. ADP’s are based on all NFBC 12 team $50s format completed drafts between Jan 16 and Feb 15 (47 total). Projections are from Steamer (unless otherwise noted).
Note that Shohei Ohtani is not included with the Starting Pitchers. There will be little use of Ohtani as a pitcher in weekly formats. His offense is just too valuable to trade it for 1 (planned, but not guaranteed) start that week. Additionally, Ohtani will be on an innings limit this year leading to short outings and skipped weeks. So, short of a situational need late in the season Ohtani will be whacking home runs for us out of the Utility position.
Top 20:
Full disclosure, I’m an LSU guy so right off Geaux Tigers! And therefore you know I’m all about Paul Skenes PIT. Homer vibes aside - between the arsenal, velo, advanced approach and work ethic Skenes is a problem for hitters. Consider that his rookie season Baseball Savant page lights up like a Mardi Gras parade as he sits red in every metric except extension. And at 6’6” he has a lot of extension already built in. Skenes has an ADP of 12, going as early as 3 and as late as 18. Some drafters focus on hitting with their early picks and I understand why. But if you are looking for an absolute impact arm to anchor your staff grab Skenes late in the 1st rd. He will drift into the 2nd much less frequently as we approach Opening Day. Steamer: 13 wins/188 IP/11.57 K/9/2.80 ERA
There’s a slick move I have seen pulled off several times, which is to draft Paul Skenes in the late 1st and then hit Tarik Skubal DET in the early 2nd. It’s counter to how a lot of players approach their build and I’m here for the move. In fact, I have been able to pull it off once so far - drafting last in a 12 teamer. The “if he stays healthy” mantra applies to all pitching always and Skubal is no exception. That one consideration aside Skubal is in his prime at 28yo, has a modest 571 big league innings under his belt, and is coming off an electric Cy Young season where he dropped a 2.39 ERA while averaging 10.69 K’s per 9 over 192 IP’s. Oh, and btw, he added 1 mph to his fastball and now sits 96.8 mph on average as a starter bringing it left-handed! Just piling on the fun, Skubal’s changeup creates a whiff rate of 46% against righties with his slider coming in at 35%. And have we discussed how great Comerica Park is to pitch in? It’s true, and Skubal kept his ERA below 2 at home and below 3 on the road so no issue there either. Steamer: 13/196/10.49/2.92
If you aren’t up for dropping a 1st or an early 2nd on an SP then consider Zack Wheeler PHI at an ADP of 22. It’s a solid play and one I have made adding 4 shares through 10 drafts. Wheeler’s range is 17 to 32, but the high range is an outlier. In my 10 drafts he has gone 16-24 and that’s the cost you are working with. Wheeler shouldn’t see the 3rd rd in a 12 teamer. He may be 34yo but still sits 95mph on his fastball while pitching for the Phillies who are going to win a ton of games. If there is a word of caution though, it’s age combined with career workload and the fact that his fastball has lost velo each of the last 3 seasons. Steamer: 13/199/9.63/3.32
Logan Gilbert SEA was exceptional in 2024, logging a 3.23 ERA over 208.2 IP while carrying a 9.49 K/9. PJ’s suggest he will more or less repeat this in 2025 and that’s a strong volume guy to front your rotation. Two areas to be cautious with Gilbert, one is that he does give up hard contact and the other is that he is likely priced to absolute perfection at an ADP of 28. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve ended up with a couple of shares but I don’t think I will add more. Not when there are still top bats available at his ADP and then you have the opportunity to grab Burnes, Sale, Ragans, Cease as your #1 SP on your next pick. Steamer: 12/199/9.42/3.43
Cole Ragans KC just signed a 3 year $13.25m contract that bought out all but one of his arbitration years. X lit up with a wave of comments about how he shouldn’t have signed the deal and was robbed. He wasn’t. And signing it made a ton of sense. Really, the deal is smart for both sides. Keep in mind that Ragans has already had two Tommy John surgeries. So he locked in a solid payday and if he stays healthy he’s still set for a big last year of arbitration and then a fun free agency in 2029. Ragans has three out pitches to go with his two fastballs and it makes for a very effective arsenal. The changeup is a wipeout pitch against righties and the slider is his go to pitch to put lefties away. There was a 1 mph velo drop 2024 to 2023 and it’s not surprising given his workload near doubled to 186.1 IP. As mentioned, Ragans at ADP 45 feels a bit better than where Gilbert is going. No guarantees with pitching though, make your play and keep building! Steamer: 12/183/10.22/3.49
The first time I typed Garrett Crochet “BOS” I actually still had him on the CWS…clearly I need to get with the program. The Red Sox have had a great offseason and even though Crochet was very expensive in prospect capital he is a beast that completely changes their rotation. The former 1st rd pick should add innings to his workload now that he is fully removed from TJS. And you know Crochet will get more wins in Boston than Chicago. My concern here is mainly on innings pitched. He logged 146 in 2024 and likely won’t exceed 175 in 2025. That’s fine, but it is 25 IP short of what we normally look for from a #1 type SP. The loss of 25 or so IP reduces your stat impact by roughly 12.5% over the course of the season. At ADP 30 you are paying up for what should be an excellent stat line otherwise. It’s a far cry from last year when we were scooping up shares of Crochet in the 500’s during early drafts. Steamer: 12/170/11.68/3.04
Alex Anthopoulos turned Vaughn Grissom into a Cy Young Award when he dealt the young infielder for Chris Sale ATL. It’s magic that would make David Copperfield proud. Can Sale repeat the feat? Absolutely. If his health holds. And that is a concern greater with Sale than most any other pitcher. He will pitch at 36yo this year and had a stretch from 2021-2023 where he made a total of only 31 starts. At ADP 40 I’ve pretty much avoided the play, landing only 1 share so far and that was when he fell almost a full round. Drafting Sale off of his Cy Young season feels a bit like hitting a jackpot at the casino and deciding whether to drop more money on that machine or move on to another one. Sale’s velo did bounce back last year so if you are looking for a vote of confidence focus on that, not his late season back issues. Steamer: 14/187/11.10/3.07
It seems that most everyone is on board for Corbin Burnes ARI this year. Yet I’m not. And I may miss out here. But I can’t get past Burnes having his K rate drop substantially over the last 3 years. Sliding down from an uber elite 12.61 K/9 to a pedestrian 8.38 last year. Add in the fact that Chase Field is more of a hitters park (#8) than Camden Yards (#19). Those are a couple of big considerations for someone being picked at ADP 35. Steamer: 12/190/9.13/3.69
George Kirby SEA is one of my favorite starters to watch pitch. I was able to see him come through the minors at AA and have enjoyed every outing I’ve watched. Kirby has the arsenal to overpower hitters yet he pitches much more than he throws. Which is part of why he’s such a treat to watch. Kirby will pitch to contact and that helps keep his pitch counts down but it also nicks his value in our game. With two straight seasons at 191 IP Kirby will give you a full workload and pair it with a really nice ERA and WHIP. It’s just unlikely you see elite K’s. And that is why he is still available at ADP 45 and why I have found Kirby often falling into the 50’s and even to 64 in my current draft. Steamer: 11/180/8.54/3.53
Will the real Dylan Cease SD please stand up? As a high K rate pitcher Cease has seen his ERA bounce all over the place the last 4 seasons (3.91/2.20/4.58/3.47). I think the PJ’s probably have it right, particularly if he does stay with the Padres. Which may still be a question mark. His ADP of 47 places Cease between Kirby and Snell coming off the board. Steamer: 13/189/10.68/3.49
We all know that Blake Snell LAD is a 5 to 6 inning guy. That’s it. And he has cleared 30 starts just twice in 9 seasons. The stat line may be elite but the question is how do you value all of this? An ADP of 53 feels high but is at least in the right range, just one that I will almost certainly steer clear of. Steamer: 12/170/11.70/3.51
2nd half 2024 Pablo Lopez MIN would go even higher than ADP 69. He delivered a 2.77 ERA and 77 K’s over his last 81.1 IP. Unfortunately, that was layered on top of a brutal 5.11 ERA in the 1st half. Lopez put up four straight seasons (2020-2023) with an ERA between 3.07 and 3.75 so 3.60 for 2025 feels like the right range. The PJ’s also land in the 3.60-3.80 range.With Lopez you pick up 190 IP and a 9.5 K/9 for a solid Minnesota Twins team. Steamer: 12/193/9.45/3.62
Off-season buzz that Michael King SD might get traded has settled down after he signed a contract for 2025 that also has a 2026 option. It’s great for King and a good thing for all the Fantasy GM’s out there. Predictability (at least the illusion of it) is important, particularly for a player who has vaulted to a 61 ADP this year. PJ’s are pulling King’s K/9 down a bit and pushing his ERA up - likely due to FIP and xFIP suggesting he is more mid 3’s than high 2’s. Steamer: 12/180/9.59/3.65
Another big value in 2024 was Shota Imanaga CHC. This time you’re going to pay up at ADP 77. Imanaga gave up 22 of his 56 earned runs during just 3 games last year. I’m not saying he won’t have a bad game (s) in 2025, just putting in perspective that this is a guy that gave up 2 ER or less in 20 of his 29 starts. He also just doesn’t put people on base. I’ve read a few negative takes on Imanaga for 2025 and just don’t share the opinion. Steamer: 11/180/9.12/3.64
Framber Valdez HOU is a pitcher that I struggle to understand and therefore tend to avoid. He’s certainly effective, putting up four quite solid seasons in a row. So if you are on him, I get it. Valdez is carrying an ADP of 67 so he’ll likely be a 6th rd pick for you. Steamer: 12/185/8.63/3.43
On the other hand, I was able to watch close to half of Spencer Schwellenbach’s (ATL) starts last year. And I was blown away with the combination of stuff and maturity from the 24yo rookie. I’m a believer, advanced metrics are on board, and you should be too. Schwelly’s fastball sits 96 and he takes out righties with the slider and gets lefties with a curve and a split. An important consideration is that he threw 168.2 combined IP last year. So something in the 180 range is on the table for 2025. Steamer: 12/172/8.70/3.79 (will take the over across the board, particularly the K/9)
Bailey Ober MIN has 88 career starts with a combined 3.76 ERA and 9.24 K/9. Last year we were sneaking him onto our rosters, not this year. It’s ADP 88 if you want in and you pretty much know what you will get. Steamer: 10/171/9.27/4.03 (expect a better ERA)
Speaking of LSU, Aaron Nola PHI has been getting it done since 2015. The 2014 7th overall pick likely has seen his best days on the bump yet he is still a workhorse that should fill up the stat line. Grabbing Nola’s profile at an ADP of 92 is just fine, but maybe avoid the temptation to reach for him earlier. Steamer: 12/188/8.88/3.84
Hunter Brown HOU helped a lot of people win leagues last year with his incredible 2nd half run. We are talking a 2.26 ERA stretch with 74 K’s over 71 IP. Brown is good at home and also on the road while, oddly, being more effective against lefties. Brown does this with a 6 pitch mix that features 3 fastballs, a change, knuckle curve, and a slider that he will likely use more frequently in 2025. Get your shares. Brown is going at ADP 116 and should be higher. Steamer: 11/168/9.40/3.70
There are a lot of interesting names to consider as we round out the Top 20. This includes Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, Roki Sasaki LAD, Luis Castillo SEA, Freddy Peralta MLW, Logan Webb SF and more. Rather than looking West Coast we are going to the Cleveland Guardians pitching factory and discussing Tanner Bibee. He’s sitting at ADP 106 with a range of 89 to 131. The play here is to look in the range of 110-120 and grab him there if you can. If not, there are still lot’s of fun options available. Bibee get’s the bulk of his work done with a cutter he throws to RHB or LHB. Two of the things that offer optimism for Bibee to outperform his PJ’s is that his K/9 climbed from 8.94 to 9.69 while his BB/9 dropped from 2.85 to 2.28. More strikeouts and less walks is a nice formula. Steamer: 10/173/9.26/3.86
Summary:
Every year starting pitchers go early in the draft and either don’t deliver or get injured. And there are some arms that go later in the draft that pop up with a huge season. Every single year this happens. So approach your SP work by mitigating known risk when you can and through building substantial depth to fall back on. In this years draft there are a couple of strong pockets to scoop upside SP’s without breaking the bank. ADP 80 - 130 is absolutely loaded with quality arms, several of which will end up returning a top 50 performance. We’ll discuss the back end of this block in our next article and we will also dive into the 170-220 range that is full of quality options as well.
Check back soon for more on Starting Pitchers outside the Top 20.
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