Top Prospects - 2024 Arizona Fall League
2024 Arizona Fall League Schedule
Oct 24, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
I know, I know…I’ve been MIA. On hiatus. Taking a break. Chilling out.
What has me back on the field? A trip out west for the Arizona Fall League!
I’ve been to the AFL every non-covid year since 2018. And I love the experience, for so many reasons. The main one is getting a chance to watch so many future big leaguers refine their game and take another step closer to the MLB.
Over my five AFL seasons I have had a front row seat for the likes of Julio Rodriguez, Vladimer Guerrero Jr., Royce Lewis, Pete Alonso, Luis Robert, Heston Kjerstad, Lawrence Butler, Nico Hoerner, Tristan Casas, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Logan O’Hoppe, Bobby Miller, Matt McLain, and so many others. All before they became the big leaguers they are today.
My AFL experience this year will be a bit different as I will be in Arizona for just 13 days. During that time I expect to catch somewhere around 15 games. Many days allow you to catch an early and a late game if you’re up for what is usually an hour plus drive across the Valley. I will do that occasionally but generally will stick to games in Mesa, Scottsdale, and Salt River. These are fantastic ballparks and also are the closest to where I stay.
The AFL talent level can vary from year to year but rarely disappoints. And for me 2024 is much stronger than 2023, which was the lightest crop I have seen during my AFL trips. And given that the players are already approaching the mid-season mark we have standouts beginning to emerge.
Combing through the team rundowns I have a target list of players I am most interested in seeing. This is 100% hitter focused as the AFL is notoriously a hitters league with limited impact arms rostered. That’s not to say some pitchers won’t stand out, just that my focus is predominantly on the hitters in the AFL.
So here’s my “gotta see ‘em” list for the 2024 AFL (with a comments for context and AFL stats through games played Oct 23):
Max Acosta TEX AA: He was once on the IFA hype train and then faded from the lists. The swing has always been tight while his production has been mostly average. We need to keep in mind that Acosta has not yet turned 22 and has been on the younger side for every level he’s played. 2024 was his best year yet and has Acosta starting to get a bit of buzz again.
AFL: .297 BA, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 4 SB…pretty much as advertised
Drake Baldwin ATL AAA: Drafted in the 3rd rd in 2022 Baldwin started to elevate in 2023 and full on broke out when he hit AAA this past season. I like the swing, the approach and the player. The big question is will the Braves find a way to work him into the big league lineup next year, will they deal him for other needs (SS or OF), or will he start gathering dust in AAA?
AFL: .265 BA, 1 HR, 4 RBI
Moises Ballesteros CHC AAA: A consensus top 100 player that currently hovers around 50 on most prospect lists. Ballesteros’s game is about the bat and he does damage with it. In 2024 he put up 19 home runs across AA and AAA while striking out less than 20% of the time. Ballesteros did this while also hitting for average and playing young for both levels at 20yo. He should see Wrigley in 2025 and is positioned to catch and DH there for years to come.
AFL: 3 HR, 9 RBI, .375 BA…and only 5 K’s in 40 AB’s…the bat is probably big league ready right now
Joe Caglianone KC A+: A 1st rd pick this year and a big dude listed at 6’5 250. Bobby Witt Jr.’s future teammate has only received 126 professional plate appearances so this assignment is probably about reps as much as anything.
AFL: .227 BA with 2 BB’s against 11 K’s in 44 AB’s
Tyler Callihan CIN AAA: This is a player pretty much off everyones radar at this point. He’s still on mine because he was involved in one of my early trades in my deepest dynasty league - one where we roster 110+ players each and have 30 teams in the league. So, I still have Callihan there and still think he will see some amount of MLB time. He can hit a bit yet has no real position and hasn’t stayed healthy. As a former 3rd rd pick the Reds might be taking whatever additional looks at Callihan they can as he’s Rule 5 eligible this year. It’s hard for me to see the Reds protecting him at this point though.
AFL: .370 BA with 5 BB’s to 4 K’s
Denzel Clarke OAK AA: Clarke is coming off two full seasons at AA and will be 25yo early in the 2025 season. I’ve had the chance to see him play quite a few times and he is as advertised. A tooled up player with interesting upside as well as continued issues with swing and miss.
AFL: .433 BA with 6 BB’s to 8 K’s and 5 SB’s
Leo De Vries SD A: De Vries just turned 18yo this month so like with Ethan Salas the Padres are being very, very aggressive. To which I say…Jackson Merrill (who played in the AFL last year at 20yo and that story certainly has turned out well!) De Vries didn’t hit for average at A ball this year but did everything else pretty well. And did I mention he was just 17yo the entire season! This is one of my favorite AFL stories for 2024.
AFL: .217 BA with 4 BB’s and 9 K’s in 23 AB’s. Being here is the win, any production is remarkable…he just turned 18yo!
Bryce Eldridge SF AAA: A 1st rd pick in 2023 Eldridge did the very unusual this year and played at 4 different levels…reaching AAA after only 9 games at AA. Along the way he showed off his big time power while keeping his strikeouts at least manageable. Eldridge is 6’7 and has the long levers to go with it so I’m particularly curious to see how he handles upper level heat.
AFL: 2 HR’s is solid but the 16 K’s in 41 AB’s says more work to be done
Colt Emerson SEA A+: I loved Emerson when drafted in 2023 and judging by my fantasy FYPD’s so did everyone else. I’ve yet to see Emerson in person but like what I have seen of the swing. Great hands. High A was a challenge for him but remember - he just turned 19 in late July! If things go well in 2025 we may get to see him for half a season with the Arkansas Travelers. The AFL is an aggressive assignment for Emerson.
AFL: Hitting .383 with 5 SB’s. 11 K’s is a bit much but remember 19yo!
Drew Gilbert NYM AAA: A 2022 1st rd pick out of Tennessee Gilbert has been a mixed bag since the draft. I liked Gilbert coming out but have since moved off of him. There’s upside here and there’s also enough questions to make his future path unclear.
AFL: .188 with 3 HR and a 4/4 BB/K
Gino Groover ARI AA: I struggled to figure Groover out when he was drafted in the 2023 2nd rd. And I still don’t know what kind of player he might become. Groover can hit but hasn’t reached his power and really doesn’t run. I’m looking forward to seeing Groover in-person, getting a feel for his approach and physicality.
AFL: .300 BA with zero XBH’s in 30 AB’s…which illustrates part of the concern here
Robert Hassell III WAS AA: My in-person looks at Hassell have ranged from High A to a previous stint in the AFL. Hassell has a lot to live up to with his 2020 1st rd hype as well as inclusion in the Juan Soto trade. I’m still unsure whether we are looking at a 4th OF or a lower half starting OF. Unless something has changed that’s the current range for me. His ’24 AFL stats so far suggest I might need to update my take though.
AFL: .400/8/2/13/3 over 8 games and 35 at bats.
Zyhir Hope LAD A: An 11th rd pick in 2023 Hope is one of this years biggest pop-up players. He’s only 19yo and had a solid season at A ball for the Dodgers.
AFL: 3 HR, 15 RBI, .275 BA
Xavier Isaac TAM AA: It’s quite a list of 1st rounders for the AFL this year and that includes Isaac in 2022. He may be the highest ranked player in the AFL this season and I can’t wait to see why. Not having seen him in person yet I only have video and stats to go by. Power is the carrying tool with Fangraphs showing 80 grade upside, which would be game changing off-the-charts stuff. Yet with a hopeful 40 hit tool and no strong position defensively there are still questions. Isaac delivered 15 home runs at High A with a 30% K rate. At AA his slug dropped from .535 to .349 and that K rate jumped over 40%. Soon to be 21yo he’s still youngish for the level but that K rate has to come down in 2025 before we end up with Joey Gallo comps.
AFL: .265 BA, 2 HR, 4 RBI and a league leading (uggh) 17 K’s in 34 AB’s
Termarr Johnson PIT AA: During a spring training game this year I’m sharing with my wife that I like Johnson but worry about his mechanics and approach. So, of course, he hits two home runs that day. Termarr is athletic, powerful, and can do damage. 2024 looks like a bit of a step back for Termarr but he did lower his K rate, while holding a strong walk rate. He also had a somewhat BABIP induced drop in average. 2025 will return him to AA and will likely say a good deal about how his career path is likely to shake out.
AFL: .300 BA with 9 BB’s to 5 K’s and I love to see this! Also, 5 of his 9 hits have been for extra bases.
Colson Montgomery CWS AAA: A returning AFL’er and still just 22yo. The former 2021 1st rd pick took a step back in 2024 but did so while young for AAA. I was underwhelmed during last years AFL and curious to see what may have changed.
AFL: .321 average with 2 HR and 9 RBI and is second in walks with 10
Tre’ Morgan TAM AA: Loved what Morgan brought at LSU and was surprised he was there for the Rays late in the 3rd rd last year. This type of profile gets slept on though, particularly with MLB’s fascination and commitment to power. Morgan is strong defensively and has high end bat to ball skills with a plate approach to go with it. Even middling power development will continue to elevate a profile that is already hovering around top 100 rankers.
AFL: Hitting .417 with a HR and 12 RBI in 8 games
Thomas Saggese STL AAA/MLB: Got his first taste of the big leagues this year and is trying to carve out a FT role moving forward. 2023 was his breakout campaign and there is a path to PT at 2B or Utility in St. Louis.
AFL: .382 BA, 2 HR, 6 RBI and 7 BB to 8 K’s
Ethan Salas SD A+: A wildly aggressive assignment for an 18yo catcher! Salas is one of the more hyped players in the baseball card world and in the MILB. I use a similar approach for both - avoid young catchers! There’s just so much development needed and so many variables that can influence outcome. Salas may be the exception and reports have him very advanced and mature for his age.
AFL: .343 BA, 1 HR, 10 RBI and 5 BB’s to 10 K’s…anything would have been great given age/experience context. This is a really strong showing!
Daniel Susac OAK AA: Susac will catch at the big league level. Likely making his debut late 2025. Which would be a fairly quick rise for a 2022 1st round catcher. I saw quite a few games with Susac behind the plate at AA this year. Listed at 6’4 218 (at least) he’s a big body guy that is solid defensively and long levered at the plate. And that’s where the question marks are - will he hit enough?
AFL: .286 BA, 2 HR, 7 RBI and 5 BB to 5 K’s…solid
Tommy Troy ARI A+: The 12th overall pick in 2023 has only reached High A despite being a college (Stanford) draftee and now almost 23yo. Injuries and (related) poor performance have held back his progress. My read is that this is still the same player we saw when he was drafted and much better days are ahead for Troy. As an undersized total gamer type you know this is my kind of player.
AFL: Big struggles early and now has logged a couple of productive games.
Brock Wilken MLW AA: A ’23 1st rd pick and a member of Wake Forest lore as a result of his heroics there. Big power with the usual K risk. Wilken rebounded from a big injury and played in 108 games this year at AA with a 13% walk rate and 28% K rate. Also an abysmal .199 batting average that may have been in part driven by BABIP. The Brewers have big expectations for Wilken and a strong fall would have helped.
AFL: 2 HR’s, but little else than K’s…hitting .135. Definitely a poor showing so far for an advanced college bat.
There are more players I can and probably will write about. And If you’ve read this far then you need to join me in Arizona for the AFL! I bet you would love it as much as I do.
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