MLB Trade Deadline, Ranking Prospects, Matt Olson and Josh Lowe
MLB Trade Deadline, Ranking Prospects, Matt Olson and Josh Lowe
Jul 26, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
We are now 4 days away from the MLB Trade Deadline and things are heating up. In the last day we have had 5 pretty interesting deals.
Randy Arozarena OF dealt to the Mariners:
The Rays are master traders so right off the top never doubt their return. Here they moved Arozarena for 2 minor leaguers drafted in 2023 and 1 player to be named later.
Aidan Smith OF is s currently at A ball and has performed well this year with a power / speed profile. The hit tool still has questions and he has time to develop further as he just turned 20yo this week.
Brody Hopkins RHP is also at A ball but is 2 years older than Smith as he was a college draftee out of Winthrop. Hopkins has a had a strong season and likely overmatched his level. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Rays assign him to High A.
The return for Arozarena feels light right now, and that’s not to take away from Smith and Hopkins. It’s just that Arozarena is a proven performer with 3 very good MLB seasons under his belt and is still under team control through 2026. This has been a down year for Arozarena but it looks mostly BABIP driven and he has heated up of late.
Fantasy Takeaway: Keep an eye on Hopkins and Smith as they develop. Plenty of time to pursue them if things pick up for either but both will have a premium attached to their names atm. On Arozarena, the switch to Seattle is likely to hurt his production. Tough home ballpark and a very weak lineup right now.
Mariners pick up Yimi Garcia RP from the Blue Jays for Jonatan Clase
The Mariners adding to their strength with a strong bullpen addition in Garcia. The cost is high as Garcia is a free agent at seasons end and Clase at 22yo is a young, talented OF. Like many, Clase has questions whether he can hit big league pitching but he is tooled up and coming off a 20 home run / 79 steal season last year across High A and AA.
Fantasy Takeaway: Yimi will likely be just another really good arm in the Mariners bullpen, but with little fantasy impact. I suspect Clase will get regular playing time with the Blue Jays and he is definitely the interesting fantasy side of this deal. The question is can he become Cedric Mullins? That would be a pretty fun outcome.
You have to root for any player with a Bobblehead this cool!
Orioles deal Austin Hays OF to the Phillies for Seranthony Dominguez and Christian Pache
This shapes up as a need for need deal. The Orioles needed a bullpen lift and Seranthony will fit right in. The Phillies have very few weak spots but outfield production has been one. The fact that they have carried non-hitting Christian Pache and very light hitting Johan Rojas most of the season is just surprising to me. Austin Hays should help this lineup immediately and may force his way into a larger role than weak side platoon. Back to Pache, I wouldn’t be surprised if he were dealt again or just DFA’d. Strong defender with no bat.
Fantasy Takeaway: You will have to be in a daily lineup league for this one to really matter. And that would be if Austin Hays starts to produce - and I do think he can still hit. There was just no place for him in Baltimore with so much talent arriving from their farm.
The busy Orioles add Zach Eflin SP and his $18m contract for next year and send Mathew Etzel OF, Jackson Baumeister RHP, and Mac Horvath IF to the Rays
The Orioles had to add starting pitching and may not be done. Eflin is solid and is a quality get for Baltimore. The Rays return likely would have been a bit stronger if not for Eflins contract but again…never doubt the Rays. Baumeister is the lead while Etzel and Horvath both have a shot at big league time. Particularly for a team like the Rays that are so good about maximizing matchups and getting the most out of their players.
Fantasy Takeaway: Eflin’s value is neutral to boosted with the change of scenery while Baumeister gets a boost landing in the Rays system. Really no change of status for Etzel and Horvath.
Diamondbacks pick up A.J. Puk RP from the Marlins for Deyvison De Los Santos CI and Andrew Pintar OF
The DBacks wanted and needed bullpen help and Puk has been a force in that role. He also comes with 2 more years of team control. The price may have been steep but the DBacks struck early and got a strong asset.
For the Marlins this has the potential to be a very good return. I’m not convinced De Los Santos can thrive against big league pitching but if he can reasonably get to his power (and there is a lot of it) without channeling Joey Gallo then the Marlins may have picked up 5-7 years of an impactful bat. And then adding Andrew Pintar to the picture gives them another shot at a player who should at least see big league time. It’s a power / speed over hit profile and Pintar is still likely 2 years away.
Fantasy Takeaway:
Puk could factor into the DBacks save mix but given Paul Sewald (struggling lately) and Kevin Ginkel are already in high leverage roles and Puk is a LHP I wouldn’t chase this too hard for saves. If you are in a league that counts holds or just need quality pitching stats then this is much more interesting.
De Los Santos is closing in on big league time. I wouldn’t promote him yet, but the Marlins might. It’s more likely we see him up around Jun ’25. He’s worth an investment for the power potential, just be aware he may struggle against big league pitching. This is a risky profile. On Pintar, he’s just too far away and with enough question marks for me to look elsewhere.
Prospect rankings can vary wildly from source to source. It’s a subjective process and there are varying approaches. Some overweight a players ceiling, some factor in proximity, some use current production, some use a mix of approaches, and so on.
If you’ve ever spent time trying to rank even 100 prospects you know the challenge that presents itself. Let alone trying to rank 400 or more as some sources do. You pretty quickly end up with groups of players with little discernible differences for blocks of 5, 10 or even more. And then factor in whether you have seen this player perform in person or at least watched video? Or are you using information collected from others?
I subscribe to quite a few sources that offer significant prospect analysis and have more confidence in some than others. This is mainly from an approach standpoint as there are a number of people doing good work. Generally speaking I really like the prospect work from Fangraphs and Baseball America. Both approach their analysis from a pro scouting perspective and I feel it really shows.
Sometimes when you compare sources you will see a wide swing on a player. I actually like to see this as it can mean someone is seeing something that others are not. An example I ran into today is Drake Baldwin C ATL. Baldwin was taken by the Atlanta Braves 96th overall in the 2022 draft - out of Missouri State. He’s had an interesting offensive profile from day 1 but then he broke out this year - particularly after arriving at AAA. And to top it off Baldwin hit an opposite field missile for a home run in the MLB Futures Game.
Baldwin is ranked 36th overall on Fangraphs, a huge jump for him and he now has a 50 Future Value there. Neither Baseball America or MLB.com have Baldwin in their top 100’s and RotoWire has him at #261. That’s a pretty wide variance across the four rankers.
My best advice is to take it all as input while leaning on your own observations to make your Fantasy Baseball decisions. Figure out what type of player profile you prefer, watch video, and go to games if you can. I can’t stress enough how much you can learn about prospects by catching MILB games in person. Just watching how well a player moves, or doesn’t move, will tell you a great deal.
Player Spotlight:
I’ve had Matt Olson 1B ATL on my hit list to discuss for weeks. I keep thinking he’s going to break out of this funk, I mean, he has too right?
2023 was likely Olson’s career season as he slashed .283/127/54/139/1 with a 160 wRC+ and 6.5 WAR. This year he is pacing for .220/68/22/73/0 with a 92 wRC+ and 0.0 WAR (as of Jul 23). It’s a staggering fall for a player who led the NL in HR, RBI and SLG while finishing 4th in the MVP race.
So, what’s happened? Team context is part of it. The Braves lost Ronald Acuna Jr. early in the season and that took RBI chances away from Olson. Michael Harris II has been hurt, other players have struggled, and Olson has been a guy that teams could afford to pitch around earlier in the season and now they can just go right at him as he has clearly lost his way.
From a stat standpoint a few things do stand out. Olson’s K’s are up, his walks are way down, his ISO has dropped almost in half, his average EV is down almost 2mph and his barrel rate is actually at a career low. Olson is also performing significantly worse against fastballs, breaking balls and off-speed pitches this year. But what may have jumped at me the most is his 2024 spray chart when compared to 2023. Last year he did so much damage to all parts of the ballpark but this year he doesn’t have a single home run to the opposite field or center field!
Matt Olson 2024 Hits Spray Chart - Baseball Savant
Matt Olson 2023 Hits Spray Chart - Baseball Savant
If Olson is beginning to decline at age 30, and I am not yet saying he is, then the Braves have a mess on their hands. Olson has 5 more years (2029) on his contract and Atlanta can’t afford to have those be league average or worse. Particularly not given that Sean Murphy C is signed through 2028 and is currently a platoon player. Then you have Acuna’s health questions and so on.
And for this year, particularly with Ozzie Albies 2B fracturing his wrist, it looks like the Braves are at risk of falling out of the Wild Card race and missing the postseason. GM Alex Anthopolous can always be counted on to pull the right strings and it’s still very likely the Braves look to add by the MLB Trade Deadline. But how hard they push in will have to be weighed against all the question marks.
Staying with the theme of tremendous drops in productivity year to year I want to take a quick look at Josh Lowe OF TAM. He flat delivered for Tampa and in fantasy baseball last year as he put up .292/71/20/83/32. This year he’s lost a chunk of the season due to injury but hasn’t put up the numbers when healthy either. The thing is, he’s still hitting the ball hard, getting to his barrels, and BABIP says he has also been unlucky. Not to give Lowe a complete pass as his K rate is north of 30% this season and that is certainly an issue.
The larger issue imo is that the Rays simply are playing Lowe in a straight platoon and that is drastically reducing what he can contribute. YTD Lowe has 16 at bats against LHP and given that this came over 11 games played it’s pretty safe to say he hasn’t started against a lefty yet. His use last year was actually quite similar. Lowe just did so much damage against righties it was harder to notice. Bottom line here is I would look to add Josh Lowe as a buy low in daily lineup leagues and I would straight out avoid him or trade him in weekly lineups. This is who the Rays are and until they trade Lowe, at just the right time to max out his return, he’s probably a strong side platoon guy only.
The next 4 days should be a whirlwind of MLB trades as teams sort out their directions at the deadline. There are a lot of fun stories to watch and one I am really curious about is how much value the Marlins might return dealing Jazz Chisholm OF and most of their bullpen. It should be significant given that this year has once again shaped up as a sellers market.
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