Around the Horn
Apr 21, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Around the Horn
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Let’s take a look at some of the players that stood out over the past week. We’ll dig in a bit and see if there is something actionable for Fantasy Baseball.
Did you see the Reds scored three touchdowns and a field goal against the Orioles yesterday? It was a 24-2 disaster for Baltimore, who gave up runs in 7 different innings including 9 earned that were tacked on to position players Jorge Mateo and Gary Sanchez. Charlie Morton was on the bump to start the game and now sports a 10.89 ERA. I have a huge appreciation for Morton’s career and feel we may be at the end. His velocity is still ok, but the only pitch not getting hit around is the four seamer.
You would think my focus here would be on all the offense the Reds delivered but instead it’s squarely on what will the Orioles do from here? Their rotation is in shambles with little help on the way. Top this off with the news that Grayson Rodriguez BAL is seeking a second opinion on his shoulder, which is even worse news than an elbow. Could Baltimore be the trade partner for Sandy Alcantara MIA? Maybe, they connected last year when the Orioles overpaid for Trevor Rogers sending Connor Norby to Miami. The thing is, Alcantara is off to a rough start of his own which adds uncertainty.
Staying in the AL East, we had Triston Casas BOS as a fade during draft season. For me, the reason is still tied to the player I saw in the AFL during the 2021 season. Casas hit .371 during the AFL that year, so it wasn’t a lack of production that caught my attention. Rather it’s that you can learn a lot about players when you watch them work in the minors, AFL, etc.
Casas is off to a brutal start to 2025 and likely should start losing playing time. His EV, ISO and BB rate are all noticeably down. And he is hitting just.109 against RHP - albeit it a small sample size of 71 PA’s. You could envision a number of scenarios, including Rafael Devers working his way into 1B and Roman Anthony joining the big club.
Next up is another first baseman we faded during draft season. Early returns say we got this one wrong as Spencer Torkelson DET made changes to his swing / approach this offseason and results have been better. In fact, he is tracking much more like his 2023 season as opposed to the disaster of 2024 that had him sent back down. Tork is hitting the ball as hard as he ever has, is getting to more barrels, and has a career best walk rate. We like all of that. However, he’s still striking out 28% of the time and both his ISO and BABIP are unsustainable - suggesting small sample size and luck factors. The takeaway is Tork is relevant again yet is very unlikely to sustain his current pace. If you have him rostered either ride the wave or look to sell high. If you don’t have Tork on your team avoid the temptation to chase his current performance.
Dansby Swanson CHC is hitting .177 with a .344 SLG, while striking out 28.8% of the time and walking a career low 5.8%. It’s bad but the underlying numbers show that Swanson is hitting the ball harder than ever and is enduring some bad luck. A BABIP of .206 has drained an xBA of .243 and xSLG of .470. This looks like the same Swanson that slashes in the neighborhood of .245/80/20/70/15. Not a fantasy star yet someone you might find a nice buy low on here.
A bit reverse of Swanson is Trevor Story BOS, who is enjoying a strong start to 2025 that is supported by a .400 BABIP. To be fair, when healthy Story has delivered BABIP’s in the .340-.360 range so his variance isn’t as significant as Swanson’s. While Story is carrying a low BB% and high K% his hard hit rate has bounced back to pre 2022 levels and he’s barreling the ball at the highest rate of his career. Story is also running well this season, sitting in the 85% percentile at 32yo is no small thing. All of that said, don’t chase this. The plate approach is problematic and the injury risk has just been too great with Story.
We’re going to take a look at a seemingly off-the-radar relief pitching in Phil Maton STL. He was a late Spring signing by the Cardinals, in fact Maton was their only meaningful free agent addition this year. Clearly Ryan Helsley is the Cardinals closer and other than a spiked walk rate he looks fine even with his velo down a tad. The thing is that the Cardinals are 9-13 in a division where the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds all are playing better baseball. And, you guessed it, Helsley is a free agent at the end of the season. So, back to Maton, who has yet to give up a run in 11.1 IP and has a 14 K’s to 0 BB’s. If Helsley were to falter or were to be traded then someone has to close for the Cards and that someone right now would likely be Phil Maton. Depending on how deep your league and roster are you might want to either keep an eye on the situation in St. Louis or even go ahead and acquire Maton. And if you are in a saves + holds league I probably don’t have to tell you about Maton as he has been scooped up in most of those already.
Phil Maton STL Deep RP Target
Baseball Savant 2025
Youth Movement
We’ve discussed Logan Henderson MLW previously, so you know this is a call-up we’ve been waiting for. A 2021 4th rd pick Henderson made his debut yesterday against a potent Athletics lineup. How did he do you ask? He logged 83 pitches over 6 innings, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits and a walk while striking out 9. We were traveling yesterday, so this is a game I listened to on the radio. As a result I didn’t realize until this morning that Henderson featured his four seamer 53% of the time and his changeup 40%, leaving just 4 cutters (to lefties) and 2 sliders (to righties).
Logan Henderson Debut Apr 20, 2025
We have seen similar approaches before for young pitchers, who begin deepening their pitch mix as they go. For Henderson, the four seamer and changeup are clearly his best pitches anyway. He generated 13 whiffs between the two, adding another 11 called strikes as well. While his debut supports that Henderson is ready for big league action there are still question marks regarding how many starts he will see with the Brewers this year. Tobias Myers, Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Civale are working their way back from injuries while Freddy Peralta, Jose Quintana and Quinn Priester are ahead of Henderson in the rotation. The bottom line is that Henderson offers upside at SP and is worth the investment if you have the depth and bench to ride any additional time spent in AAA. If not, he could be a target to stream based upon progress and match up.
The Brewers also promoted Caleb Durbin MLW for the weekend series. Durbin, acquired from the Yankees this past off-season, was a 14th rd draft pick by the Atlanta Braves in 2021. He has already far exceeded his draft stock with a solid hit tool, plus speed, and enough pop to keep it interesting. Durbin strikes out less than 10% of the time and can play 2B, SS, 3B, and OF. The speed, contact and position versatility should offer Durbin plenty of leash with the Brewers.
I’ve had a couple of extended looks at Durbin in the Arizona Fall League as he led the league in steals both in 2023 and 2024. He also became a fan favorite there as a result of his all-hustle all-the-time approach. Durbin logged 50 steals in 47 AFL games over the two seasons, chipping in 8 home runs to go with the bags. If you missed it, the Brewers set a team record with 9 stolen bases yesterday. Absolutely exploiting Jeffrey Springs and Shea Langeliers. This is Brewers baseball and Durbin fits the lineup very well.
Luke Keaschall MIN holds a special place in our household. Last year he was thoughtful enough to crank a foul ball our way at a AA game. The ball bounced right into my wife’s lap and she chatted with him about it after the game. So you know who in our home would spend all their FAAB to add Keaschall if they could.
I dug into Keaschall’s profile a good deal during his 2023 draft season and then saw quite a few of his AA games with Wichita last year. Fangraphs has Keaschall with a 50 FV and as the 51st overall prospect. They also show him as a balanced offensive player with defensive issues. This feels pretty spot on to what I have seen. What I will add is that Keaschall is at the plate looking to pull and to do damage. I found him selective, hunting for pitches he could turn on.
Keaschall has reminded me of Spencer Steer CIN and that’s the comp here. If things go well, Keaschall could eclipse Steer and that would be a very solid outcome. The larger question right now is whether playing time will continue to be there for Keaschall. The Twins are loaded with infielders and DH bats that need playing time when healthy. A strong debut could force the Twins to keep him in the lineup. If not he could end up back in AAA in fairly short order. Regardless, Keaschall is an upside Fantasy asset for dynasty.
Chase Meidroth CWS logged 9 games with the White Sox before hitting the IL with a thumb injury. Meidroth could be a bright spot in a rough White lineup. Just keep your expectations modest given both team context and the fact that Meidroth hasn’t been much of a stat compiler so far.
Chandler Simpson TAM has generated buzz the last two seasons primarily due to stealing 198 combined bags across A, A+ and AA. Fangraphs has Simpson at a 50 FV and currently ranked 78th among prospects. Simpson has a solid approach at the plate, doesn’t strike out and will take a walk. He also brings zero power to the party, illustrated by one career MILB home run across parts of 4 minor league seasons. Simpson’s 50 FV is heavily driven by his legit 80 grade speed. For those that remember Billy Hamilton, Simpson seems to shape up like a version that can actually hit a bit.
With Simpson getting the call in Tampa Jeff Passan tweeted that “If you play fantasy baseball, get Chandler Simpson now.” I get the enthusiasm, I do. Simpson can do things virtually no one else can right now. If you decide to follow the advice, you will have a hole in home runs and RBI that must be covered somewhere else in your lineup. And that’s not even getting into the playing time issues that always exist with the Rays. Compounding that issue is Josh Lowe near a return and the fact that Kameron Misner has played very well since his recall. So now there are at least 6 players fighting for 3 OF spots and that’s not counting Richie Palacios who is injured again.
Edgar Quero CWS also got the call in Chicago. It’s an early debut for a catcher that just turned 22yo. Fangraphs has Quero as a 50 FV prospect ranked 59th overall. He’s been solid in the minors and is worth keeping an eye on. This is not the time to chase Quero though, unless its for a deeper dynasty format. He’s young, has only 173 PA’s at AAA, has the poor team context, and you have to be prepared for Kyle Teel to also get the call this year. And Teel has the stronger offensive profile.
Staying on catchers, reports have Agustin Ramirez MIA being promoted to the Marlins. Ramirez not only has the stronger offensive profile over Quero, but he should see more playing time given he can play 1B and will also get time at DH. If Ramirez clicks he becomes a middle of the order bat quickly with Xavier Edwards and Connor Norby possibly hitting in front of him and Jesus Sanchez behind. Maxing out catcher AB’s is an often overlooked consideration in Fantasy Baseball. Ramirez may prove to be an impactful second or third catcher, particularly with respect to playing time.
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