Mining The MLB Leaderboard - Pitchers

Apr 19, 2025

Author: 3-1Count.com

Mining the MLB Leaderboard - Pitchers

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We are now just a bit over the 10% mark into the 2025 season. A good time to take a peek at the leaderboards and see who is standing out. And, accordingly, identify if there is something actionable from a Fantasy Baseball perspective. Note that all stats referenced are though games played Apr 17, 2025.

ERA

Can you imagine the preseason odds of Chris Bassitt TOR (0.77) and Tyler Mahle TEX (0.92) leading MLB in ERA at any point?!? Well, that’s where we are with Hunter Greene CIN (0.98) in 3rd. Bassitt and Mahle have both been worth rostering before, but this is clearly an exceptional start for both. Of the top 3, Greene easily has the highest upside and likely value for the remainder of the season. Mahle and Bassitt are a toss up the rest of the way and you might consider testing the trade market and selling while they are hot if you are holding either.

There are 24 qualified SP’s with an ERA below 2.50 currently. All have 4 starts so far, except Shota Imanaga CHC with 5 (Tokyo) and Shane Baz TAM at 3. On the list are guys you expect like Garrett Crochet CWS, Max Fried NYY, Cole Ragans KC, and Logan Gilbert SEA. Then there are a couple of other names none of us would have expected in Randy Vazquez SD and Mitchell Parker WAS (more in a minute).

Of the 24 SP’s at the top of the ERA list some names that would be interesting to acquire at this point (based upon upside and likely cost) are Hunter Brown HOU, Nick Pivetta SD, Mathew Boyd CHC, and Andrew Heaney PIT. We’ve been discussing Brown most of the off-season and believe he is moving into Ace territory. Pivetta, Boyd and Heaney are all with new teams and have seemingly elevated as a result. Boyd and Heaney likely still have a modest acquisition cost making each an interesting target. On Heaney, keep in mind he signed a one year contract with the Pirates and is likely to get traded by the deadline, which could have an impact.

Wins

It’s really just too early to dig into such a random category. There are 12 pitchers tied with 3 wins a piece, including reliever Anthony Banda LAD with only 8.1 IP’s and Merrill Kelly ARI who is sporting a 5.57 ERA. So let’s roll on to the more meaningful Quality Starts.

Quality Starts

Who had Mitchell Parker WAS starting his 2025 season with 4 consecutive Quality Starts? Parker was drafted late in the 5th rd in 2020. Which, given the shortened draft due to covid, means Parker almost wasn’t drafted that year. He came out of a JuCo in California and carried a Fangraphs 40+ FV in 2024. Last year was interesting for Parker as he logged 151 big league innings in his rookie season. Realistically though, Parker was on few radars going into the 2025 Fantasy Baseball draft season. The profile suggested a late volume play versus an upside pick. And I’m not sure thats changed as his K/9 is below 6 and he has an xFIP of 4.40.

Beyond Parker we have 7 SP’s sitting on 3 QS’s a piece. The list is a mixed bag including Erick Fedde STL, Hunter Greene CIN, Mitch Keller PIT, Nick Lodolo CIN, Max Meyer MIA, Nick Pivetta SD and Spencer Schwellenbach ATL. We are buying into what Greene, Pivetta and Schwelly are doing. Fedde is a low K guy that does a solid job of limiting runs. While Keller has been in the “will he break out” category for years and it’s hard to push in there. Lodolo might have upside, but the home ballpark, low K’s, and innings limits all offer caution. As does an xERA more than a run higher than his actual ERA. We will discuss Meyer further in a bit, also suggesting we don’t chase.

Innings Pitched

Even this early in the season it’s meaningful to watch innings pitched for starters. Quality volume is a huge plus, particularly in leagues without an IP cap. And even in leagues that do cap at 1,500 to 1,800 innings it has become increasingly challenging to hit the mark given how many starters are 5 and done now. So, we are particularly interested in the ones that are averaging at least 6 IP per start. That list currently includes 19 names.

MLB Innings Pitched Leaders (through Apr 17)

Three that would be difficult to acquire: Garrett Crochet CWS, Paul Skenes PIT, Zack Wheeler PHI

Three to target: Spencer Schwellenbach ATL, Cristopher Sanchez PHI, Logan Webb SF

Three to avoid:  Luis Severino ATH, Kyle Freeland COL, Yusei Kikuchi LAA

WHIP

We won’t end the season with 22 SP’s sitting below 1.00 in WHIP even though that’s where we are atm. Last year there were 4 (Logan Gilbert, Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Bryce Miller SEA), and in 2023 just 1 (Gerrit Cole NYY).

Of the 22 SP’s currently allowing less than one baserunner per inning here are the…

Most surprising names on this list: Hunter Wesneski HOU, Shane Baz, Tyler Mahle, and Andrew Heaney

Most likely to finish below 1.00: Logan Gilbert, Paul Skenes, Garrett Crochet, Cole Ragans, and let’s include Tarik Skubal even though he currently sits at a 1.01 WHIP.

WHIP is usually more indicative of a pitchers effectiveness than ERA. Less baserunners allowed = less opportunities for runs to score. Shop in the below 1.15 WHIP category and good things will happen for your teams. For reference, there are currently 38 SP’s at or below 1.15.

Strikeouts

Like with low WHIP, the more we focus on high K rates the more often we have good outcomes in Fantasy Baseball. Combining the two categories is a great formula and one that we will dive into in a future article. For now, let’s look at the K/9 leaderboard.

K/9 Leaders for Starting Pitchers (through Apr 17)

The Top 11 features star names in Ragans, Gilbert, Yoshinobu Yamamota LAD, and Chris Sale ATL. It also includes surprises in Clay Holmes NYM, Baz, MacKenzie Gore WAS, Eduardo Rodriguez ARI, and Cristopher Sanchez.

Cristopher Sanchez PHI grabs our attention here as the one knock had been his previously low K rate. We discussed during draft season that his sinker was a problem and an improved fastball could better compliment his devastating changeup. Reports came out in Spring Training that Sanchez was working on a cutter. But so far, he is still rolling out a 3 pitch mix with the sinker, the changeup and a slider. The same mix as last year. What is different is that Sanchez has added 1.5 mph to all three of his pitches. It’s clearly increased his effectiveness, particularly with the changeup that is now delivering a remarkable 53.8% whiff rate!

Cristopher Sanchez creates significant movement across his pitches (changeup, slider, sinker)

Clay Holmes NYM has been a mixed bag with over 12 K/9, unfortunately combining with a truly rough 5 BB/9. His FIP and xFIP both suggest he’s good and the changeup is a legit weapon. Just don’t go crazy chasing Holmes as not all of the advanced metrics are favorable and we have to keep in mind he has never thrown more than 70 IP’s in a big league season.

MacKenzie Gore WAS is operating at a new level, starting to reach the potential that earned him Top 10 prospect status as he was coming up. Gore is still a work in progress and is likely to deliver some bumpy outings along with really good ones. The net effect should be a solid season and a strong return for a pitcher regularly available around 210 ADP in draft season.

Shane Baz TAM and Eduardo Rodriguez ARI are two names to avoid on this list. In both cases there will likely be reduced volume with Baz likely to top out at 125 IP and Rodriguez carrying big injury risk over the last 4 years. Not to mention ERod’s career 4.08 ERA and a K rate nearly 3 K/9 below his early 2025 mark.

A couple of other names sitting above 10 K’s per IP to mention here include:

Freddy Peralta MLW: You know what you get with Peralta, decent volume with an upper 3’s ERA, a K/9 over 10 and too many walks. Serviceable profile with a touch of upside.

Zac Gallen ARI: Be in full sell mode if you can, or at least avoid acquiring Gallen. The profile is worsening and his velo is down. Other than whiff and K % Gallen sits below the 55th percentile in all other advanced pitching metrics.

Kris Bubic KC: A five pitch arsenal with 3 of them delivering a 34%+ whiff rate. Don’t overpay, but acquire if you can. Remember though, he will likely top out around 125 IP in 2025.

Max Meyer MIA: Throwing your slider 40% of the time is unusual for a starter and Meyer is still delivering a 47% whiff rate with it. The pitch may be elite but the pitcher isn’t there yet. Plus the Marlins context is so bad. Ride him if you have him.

Let’s also touch on Logan Webb SF here. A bit like Cristopher Sanchez we have knocked Webb down in recent years due to a low K rate hovering around 8 K/9. What’s different so far in 2025? Webb’s sweeper and changeup have both elevated, making this K boost look more sustainable. Great team and ballpark context to go with a pitcher that has delivered at least 192 IP each of the last 3 seasons.

Saves

During draft season Robert Suarez SD was faded hard. Look, it made sense. He’s 34yo, relatively unproven, and had a poor 2nd half in 2024. Not to mention there are several other options to close in the Padres bullpen. So, of course, here we are with Suarez leading MLB with 8 saves. He’s also allowed just 5 baserunners in 9 IP and struck out 10. The Padres are going to win a ton of games and if Suarez stays anywhere close to this level we could be looking at 40+ saves.

Really, none of the current top 5 in saves were strong targets in draft season. Andres Munoz SEA was an arm to grab after the top 10 or so closers were off the board and now he’s sitting 2nd with 7 saves. Then you hit Kyle Finnegan WAS who didn’t even sign until well into Spring Training. He’s tied with Luke Jackson TEX who went mostly undrafted and Tanner Scott LAD who could have been had between pick 175-200 until late in the spring.

All of this is a reminder just how volatile relievers and bullpen decisions can be. The New York closers Devin Williams NYY and Edwin Diaz NYM have not been good, but should still be safe. The consensus top closer Emmanuel Clase CLE has been awful with a 6.75 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. And yet we have the ghost of Emilio Pagan CIN resurrected to deliver 4 saves for the Reds. It’s mind numbing!

So what’s the play for saves? Maybe it’s to join more Saves + Holds leagues. Seriously, I prefer them. The overpay to chase saves both in draft and in season is so extreme and yet so necessary if you want to compete - particularly for overall rankings. In the meantime, if you have the roster room, try to handcuff your relievers when possible. Particularly when the current closer is less established, has an injury history, or is getting hit around.

Seemingly the solid closer plays at the moment include Mason Miller OAK, Josh Hader HOU, Andres Munoz SEA, Ryan Helsley STL (trade risk), and Tanner Scott LAD.

That’s a wrap for today. Check back soon for more content!

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