Baseball is Back!
Mar 28, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Baseball is Back!
Here’s a basket full of observations from someone who watched way too much baseball on Opening Day 2025!
To start, we have reason 1 billion that baseball is the best. Checking lineups as they began posting I spotted Andres Gimenez TOR hitting cleanup for the Blue Jays and thought “what the…”, they need a stronger hitter behind Vladdy and Santander. So, of course, Gimenez rocks a 2 run bomb in his second AB! Gimenez is a notorious soft contact guy with bottom 10% average EV, barrel rate, and hard contact. Yet he does have the ability to occasionally turn on inside pitches and that is what he did today.
Vinnie Pasquantino KC barely avoided the IL to make the Royals Opening Day roster. A hamstring injury was expected to take him out for a few weeks but Vinnie posted up and slotted in at DH. A healthy Vinnie is a key player for the Royals and showing this he deposited a three run homer in his 2nd AB. Big Vinnie has it in him to deliver a .290/80/25/110/0 slash.
MacKenzie Gore WAS shut down a very good Phillies lineup. He struck out 13 over 6 IP, allowing just 1 hit and no runs. At 26yo this could be Gore’s breakout season. As a former top prospect the pedigree has always been there. Gore and James Wood alone are delivering a big return on the 2022 Juan Soto trade. A footnote, the Nationals bullpen blew the lead after Gore came out of the game. This is going to be an ongoing issue for Washington this season.
Hunter Greene CIN with 5 IP, 8 K’s, and 3 earned in his first outing. I couldn’t figure out what to do with Greene during draft season and still feel that way. Advanced metrics are strong and the fastball is electric. Yet there have been durability issues, lesser home splits, and some rough games sprinkled in. An ADP range of 90-140 in redraft reflected some of this variance and was probably the right value for Greene. One thing is for sure, with an 11.25 K/9 Greene will continue to send a lot of opposing hitters back to the bench.
Cam Smith HOU has been a great story to follow all spring. He went from no chance to make the club to how could they break camp without him. If you haven’t seen it, check out the video below where the Astros (and his family!) broke the news to Cam that he had made the team. It’s pretty awesome!
Cam went 1 for 3 in his debut with an opposite field single in his first AB. In his second AB Cam hustled down the line at 30.2 feet per second on a ground out. He moves exceptionally well for a 6’3 225 LB athlete. Still, Cam was taken out of the game late for a defensive replacement. This will likely be the case until he gets more comfortable in the outfield. It will cost at-bats in fantasy yet there could be more than enough production here to pay off nicely on the late pick invested in Smith.
On the list of things to pay attention to is Drake Baldwin ATL who looked comfortable at the plate but the Padres stole 5 bases against the Braves. It may have been situational, and even pitcher influenced to a degree, yet it’s worth keeping an eye on. If the league continues to run wild on the rookie catcher it could affect his playing time behind the plate.
Wilyer Abreu BOS had a miserable spring going just 1 for 21 and then missing time with an illness. At one point he was expected to start the season on the IL but Abreu was able to rally and make the Opening Day lineup. How did he fare? Abreu went 3 for 3 with 2 home runs, 3 runs scored, and 4 RBI. And, of course, I immediately saw auctions pop up for Abreu in several of my Ottoneu leagues where he was not yet rostered.
Jackson Chourio MLW had a huge spring so we weren’t going to be surprised if he made a statement on Opening Day. And he did. Just not the way we might have expected. Chourio went 0 for 5 with 5 strikeouts. Yup, five. So he rolls into game 2 with a 100% K rate.
I’ve written about Lars Nootbaar STL many times and targeted him aggressively throughout draft season. The reason? Nootbaar’s underlying metrics have been excellent and it’s primarily injuries that have stalled his breakout. On Opening Day Nootbaar delivered a 2 for 4 performance with a home run. As nice as that was the bigger takeaway is that Nootbaar was hitting from the leadoff spot. If this continues Nootbaar would pick up 50+ additional PA’s over the season while protected in the order by Willson Contreras.
Alec Bohm PHI batted 3rd on Opening Day, sandwiched between Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. If Bohm stays 3rd in the order it should contribute to a strong season. A 2 for 5 game with 2 RBI and a run scored is a solid start to the year. With a draft season ADP in the 170-200 range Bohm could prove a source of solid profit.
Over the last week the Boston Red Sox announced Aroldis Chapman BOS as their closer…so, you know what happened. On Opening Day Chapman pitches the 8th and Justin Slaten comes in for the 9th and gets the save. It may have been situational but don’t overlook this. With Chapman being a lefty and having a tendency to have control problems the door was always going to be open for Slaten or someone else to step up and grab saves.
The Baltimore Orioles rotation going into the season doesn’t scream playoffs. With Grayson Rodriguez out with injury the staff features Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich, and Kyle Gibson (at some point). This is a rotation currently made of SP3 - SP5 types. If Povich reaches his potential and Grayson comes back healthy things start looking better. But given how strong the AL East is the Orioles current rotation could get exposed.
With Anthony Santander now in Toronto the Orioles will need Colton Cowser BAL to take another step forward in 2025. Cowser rode 24 home runs and a 120 wRC+ to a ROY runner-up finish in 2024. The 5th overall pick in 2021, Cowser is strong defensively, a good baserunner, and hit’s the ball hard. The question marks boil down to can Cowser hit lefties (just .224 last year) and can he reduce his K rate of almost 31% last year? Batting leadoff on Opening Day the Orioles are making it clear they plan to feature him this season.
Adley Rutschman BAL took a bad changeup from Jose Berrios very deep in his first AB of the season. Adley finished the day 3 for 5 with 2 home runs, 3 runs scored, and 3 RBI. It’s an early sign of what looks to be a big year for the catcher. Adley had a strong 1st half last year that was overshadowed by a complete collapse after the All-Star break. Now healthy don’t be surprised if Adley sets career highs in HR, RBI and BA.
Underlying metrics paint a picture that Jose Berrios TOR has been riding name value and getting a bit lucky since 2021. With a recent K rate of 7 per 9 he was an easy fade during draft season. Not that one game determines anything but giving up 6 earned and 3 long balls in his first outing is alarming. Predictably, and probably appropriately, I saw a few rage cuts of Berrios in fantasy leagues after his outing. Like the Orioles, the Blue Jays rotation is likely to struggle in the AL East.
Looks like a long season in Miami as the Marlins rolled out as bad of an Opening Day lineup as I recall having seen. The Marlins 9 hitters combined for 3,393 total career plate appearances coming in, which is just 37% of Andrew McCutchen’s career 9,156 PA’s. Xavier Edwards is the Marlins bright spot on offense and even then he’s a zero power all-speed guy that will see his runs scored limited given the lack of fire power behind him. Getting Jesus Sanchez and Connor Norby back from injury will help, but still leaves the Marlins well positioned to lose 100+ games in 2025. Last note, expect Sandy Alcantara MIA to be dealt sooner than later. Alcantara looked strong this spring and on Opening Day. The Marlins need to move him for a haul and not risk another injury cropping up.
Who is closing for the Texas Rangers? There are interesting arms in the bullpen, but there has been speculation as to who might get the primary saves role. For game 1 Robert Garcia entered a tie game in the 6th, then Chris Martin followed with 2 on base later that inning. Martin threw well and turned a tied game over to Luke Jackson in the 9th. Jackson proceeded to give up 3 earned while getting just one out. There were reports late in camp that Jackson may be a leading candidate for the 9th inning role and that’s just hard to imagine. The Rangers aim to compete in 2025 and Jackson hasn’t been effective since 2023. And even more so hasn’t saved a game since pre-covid.
Spencer Torkelson DET put up an unusual statline going 1 for 1 with 4 walks, a home run, 2 runs scored, and an RBI. Tork was hitting cleanup as the designated hitter. I’ve not been high on Tork in the past as he’s been overly passive and relatively easy to pitch too. Reports have him making adjustments this offseason and he raked all spring. If Tork is touching the potential that had him selected as the 1st overall pick in 2020 then the Tigers are that much stronger. A team I already expect to compete for the AL Central.
The Athletics took on the Mariners in one of the two late games. I chose this one to watch as I really like what’s going on with the A’s and I pull for the Mariners as their AA team in Arkansas is my home MILB team. My first note on this game is that the A’s road uniform is one of the best in baseball. Love the yellow and green!
Logan Gilbert SEA took the hill for the Mariners and at age 27 he’s in his 5th season. Gilbert has seen his WAR increase each of his four seasons leading to 4.1 wins above average in 2024. Watching Gilbert in the 1st I was reminded how unusual he brings his hands back in delivery. It’s a bit deceptive and I suspect does a solid job helping him keep the ball tucked away until he nears release.
If you missed it Cal Raleigh SEA signed a 6 year $105 million dollar contract late in spring training. It’s a big deal, particularly for a 28yo catcher. Raleigh’s a leader, strong defensively, an offensive force, and worth every bit of this contract. He’s batting 3rd on Opening Night and will likely log 150 games this season between time behind the plate and at DH.
The A’s have a strong top of the lineup with Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday and Shea Langeliers. This foursome should combine for 100-120 home runs this season. If Tyler Soderstrom, Jack Wilson, or other players elevate the A’s lineup will lengthen nicely.
To this point, Tyler Soderstrom OAK took an 87 mph breaking ball from Logan Gilbert very deep over the CF fence. One of two home runs on the night for the first baseman. Soderstrom had a high end 91.9 average EV last year combined with a 14.6% barrel rate. He can do real damage and it’s going to get interesting at 1B for the A’s when Nick Kurtz is ready to come up from AAA. Which could happen by mid-season.
Jacob Wilson OAK sent a line drive to right center field in his first AB. I expect we should all get used to this, there's going to be a lot more of it for years to come. Wilson had a great spring that included just 2 K's in 53 plate appearances. Seriously, just 2. Other rookies may get more attention but don't sleep on Wilson as a ROY candidate.
That’s a wrap for Opening Day! I’m grateful baseball is back for all of us to enjoy. And I’m also grateful you took the time to read this article. Feedback and future content ideas are welcomed and can be submitted through the comments or contact us page.
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