Opening Weekend 2025

Mar 31, 2025

Author: 3-1Count.com

Opening Weekend 2025!

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A full Opening Day baseball binge turned into waaaaaaay too much baseball (again!) watched over the weekend. My wife was great about it and I did, at least, find the gym a couple of times.

Check out a stack of observations and recommendations below:

Friday:

I’ve beat the Hunter Brown HOU drum pretty well this draft season. He had a fantastic second half last year, helping fantasy teams everywhere! So you know I was looking forward to his first outing of 2025. Lined up against the Mets Friday night Brown kicked the night off by striking out Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto. Brown would have struck out the side in the 1st if not for a clearly missed call to Pete Alonso, who ended up flying out.

Brown ended the night with a quality start, looking very good in the process. He did take the loss as Tylor Megill NYM was even more effective. For Brown, a final line of 6 IP, 4 hits, 3 walks, 2 earned and 7 K’s. He did this with 96 pitches, 60 for strikes. The pitch mix was particularly interesting as seen below. It’s a deep arsenal.

Hunter Brown generated 17 called strikes and 13 whiffs on Friday

Juan Soto hit his first home run with the Mets in this game. It was off of Hunter Brown and it was just destroyed. We also saw Jose Altuve in LF for the 1st time. But the main sub-story I keyed into was Cam Smith HOU. I know, I know. Smith has been discussed in my last couple of pieces. The reason is that there is something special going on here. And despite an 0-2 night it was on display again.

Smith saw 23 pitches across 4 plate appearances, on his way to two bases on balls. He did strike out 1 time with just one swing and miss. The 23 pitches seen represented 18% of the pitches thrown to the Astros. That is not your normal rookie at the plate. And watching the game, Smith was dealing with a “welcome to the show, Rookie” strike zone that led to 5 called called strikes - several of which were outside of the zone.

Reynaldo Lopez ATL was a draft season fade as his underlying metrics didn’t support his performance last year and also did not support the 150-175 draft range he occupied. Reports in spring training raised additional concerns and then Friday night his velo was all over the place. As was his pitch location. Look at this where this pitch to Fernando Tatis Jr. crossed the plate:

Tatis Jr rips this poorly located pitch from Reynaldo Lopez (110.6ev / 410’)

Tatis absolutely teed off on this one. And Lopez actually got lucky giving up just 3 earned over 5 IP as he allowed 11 baserunners and struck out just one. Lopez is reminding me a bit of Carlos Rodon over the last couple of years, where the performance is inconsistent and underlying concerns keep popping up. For now, Lopez should be a straight avoid until and if things clear up for him. If you have him, maybe bench him as often as possible.

Aaron Judge is up to his old tricks in the American League but in the National League it’s Eugenio Suarez ARI who is just destroying baseballs. Suarez went deep Opening Day, then added two more home runs in the Diamondbacks 2nd game and another in the 3rd. Before you discount Suarez as a strikeout prone veteran past his prime let me remind you he hit 20 of his 30 home runs in the second half last year. Footnote: Suarez ended the weekend with 4 home runs, leaving him tied with Aaron Judge for the early MLB lead.

Brent Rooker SAC is on the board after hitting his first home run of the season Friday night. I’m expecting 40+ from Rooker this year. The guy just mashes like The Hulk. The Athletics are going to score a lot of runs this year and you want to be part of it. Rooker, batting 2nd, is going to lead the way.

Saturday:

The first game of the day featured the Brewers vs Yankees. Both starting pitchers were making their team debuts, adding extra intrigue to the contest. Max Fried took the mound for New York and Nestor Cortes, seemingly changing dugouts, on the bump for Milwaukee.

With the wind blowing out, this was going to be an adventure at some point. And it didn’t take long. Bottom of the 1st Paul Goldschmidt, batting leadoff for the first time in his career, took Cortes Jr. deep on the first pitch he saw. Followed by a Cody Bellinger home run on the next pitch and then an Aaron Judge bomb on the next pitch. Three batters, three pitches, three home runs! Something that has never been done before in the history of MLB. By any team. Ever. And then Austin Wells chipped in another home run later in the inning which marked the first time in Yankees history they hit 4 home runs in the first inning of a game.

The Yankees went on to win the game 20-9 (NFL score?!?) on the back of a record 9 home runs hit in the game. It’s a new Yankees record and just one short of the all-time MLB mark of 10 home runs in a game (Blue Jays in 1987). Additionally, a whopping 352 pitches were thrown in this game. It’s also worth noting that Carlos Carrasco did some mop up work for the Yankees. This may suggest he is currently relegated to long relief and possibly spot starting. I mention it as Cookie had some rotation buzz towards the end of Spring Training.

Yankees footnote: If the league starts aggressively pitching around Aaron Judge it will elevate Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY hitting behind him in the lineup.

I managed to avoid even a single share of Nestor Cortes or Max Fried this year. By design. It boiled down to health questions with Fried versus his lofty draft price and then uncertainty as to Cortes role. Injuries to other pitchers insured Cortes a rotation spot to start the season but his velo was down early in this game.

The Brewers rotation issues have me wondering if we might see Logan Henderson MLW called up in April. Henderson was a 4th rd selection in 2021 and only threw 13.2 professional innings in 2022 due to injury. He had a solid 78 IP in ’23 at A ball and followed that with 81 strong innings across 3 levels last year. Henderson has leaned heavily on his fastball and changeup, still working to develop depth in his arsenal. Despite some thoughts Henderson may move to a bullpen role at some point he appears ready to debut as solid command, high strikeout starting pitcher. Add Henderson to your scout teams and keep an eye on the Brewers rotation.

Max Scherzer TOR went 3 IP in his Blue Jays debut. He gave up two first inning home runs and then retired the last 7 batters he faced. The problem, Scherzer came out of the game after just 3 IP and 45 pitches thrown. He’s had an ongoing thumb issue that apparently led to a lat issue popping up. Footnote: Scherzer was moved to the IL on Sunday, it’s reasonable to drop him in 12 team leagues and look elsewhere for your rotation.

Matt McLain CIN took Justin Verlander deep in the 3rd inning Saturday. We’ve discussed how good McLain looked in the Arizona Fall League last year and it appears to have carried over. ZIPS DC has McLain at .252/77/21/82/19 and I expect we get all of that and maybe more. McLain looks locked into 2nd base as well as hitting in front of Elly De La Cruz - which should give him more pitches to hit. Footnote: McLain added his 2nd homer of the year on Sunday, taking Robbie Ray deep in the 6th.

Jesus Luzardo PHI had a rough spring so of course he came out and K’d 11 Nationals in just 5 IP. Luzardo used 5 pitches leaning on the fastball against RHB and sweeper against LHB. He touched 98.9 with the fastball and sat 96.9. Luzardo also generated an excellent 18 whiffs in the outing.

Keep in mind, Luzardo is the Phillies 5th starter! It’s one of baseball’s best  rotations with Zach Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Christopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez (once off the IL) and Luzardo. Not to mention Andrew Painter waiting at AAA.

Jose Ramirez CLE sprained his right wrist on a really awkward slide (video below) into 2nd base. JRam is great for baseball and one of its best players so any missed time will hurt. And for fantasy owners, it would be crushing. An absolute tent pole player who just stacks counting stats like few others. Let’s hope for a good update. Footnote: Imaging was negative on JRam’s wrist, now day-to-day.

JRam with the belly flop slide, leading to a sprained wrist. Raise your hand if you have ever perfectly executed this slide!

Oneil Cruz PIT had 4 walks against the Marlins on Saturday, which brings him to 6 on the young season. This may be a sign of whats to come as opposing teams can pretty easily just pitch around Cruz giving the lack of firepower in the Pirates lineup. At a minimum, the Pirates should move Cruz back in front of Bryan Reynolds. This will have implications on fantasy teams and could be worth seeing what Cruz could bring in a deal.

I’ve mentioned in previous pieces that I’m expecting Spencer Schwellenbach ATL to have a great season, even better than teammate and reigning CY Young Winner Chris Sale. Schwelly sure kicked the season off in style going 6 IP, giving up just 1 hit and 1 walk, while striking out 4. He had his full arsenal on display with 6 different pitches accounting for at least 14% distribution. That mix combined with the quality of Schwelly’s stuff makes him extremely difficult to prepare for.

Future CY Young Award winner Spencer Schwellenbach’s 2025 debut

Sunday:

Was their a rookie that received more consistent attention across Spring Training than Kristian Campbell BOS? All of the hype and speculation mixed with his poor start at the plate. Campbell heated up enough for the Red Sox to have him in their opening day lineup at 2B. Still just 22yo Campbell has a hit in all 4 games this season, including his first career home run. Campbell has 4 strikeouts so far, paired with a couple of walks.

I stayed off of Heliot Ramos SF all draft season. Really, I was just neutral on him. The cost was ok, but when it came down to it there always seemed to be other options that fit my teams better. I also may have been holding some older bias here due to Ramos looking heavy and not moving well during his time in the Arizona Fall League. It left me with concerns regarding his athleticism. I’m not sure I feel differently now but watching him on Sunday I realized that he is poised for a solid year batting 5th in the Giants lineup. With Willy Adames, Jung Hoo Lee, and Matt Chapman in front of him that’s a lot of ducks on the pond for Ramos.

Something else I picked up on in the Giants v Reds game is that closer Ryan Walker SF “felt something” during his Opening Day appearance. Either I had missed this news or it just hadn’t made the rounds. So it was Camilo Doval SF who came in today in the 9th with a 3 run lead. Handcuffing Doval to your Ryan Walker shares was always a good play and may be set to pay off. Footnote: Walker is now listed as day-to-day due to back tightness.

The Washington Nationals got to Aaron Nola PHI, with Nate Lowe pushing him out of the game in the 6th after depositing a long home run to LC. Nola’s fantasy cost versus upside stood out as offering little to no profit potential through draft season. If things go well, Nola offers volume with a high 3’s ERA. Yet he was often coming off the board in the 80-100 range, where comparable pitchers could be had 30-50 picks later. Last note, Nola’s velo was down a tick across all of his pitches today. Likely situational, yet something to keep an eye on.

Bailey Ober’s MIN first start wasn’t Unnasty Nestor bad, but it was pretty awful. Ober gave up 8 earned in just 2 2/3 innings. This against a mediocre Cardinals offense. And Ober gave up long balls to Victor Scott II and Pedro Pages, neither known for their power. Reports have come out that Ober was sick leading up to the game, to the point that he had an IV prior. Why the Twins didn’t push his start back is a head scratcher. And they paid the price for pushing the issue. Anyway, toss this game out when evaluating Ober. Given that his next start is against the Astros you may consider benching him.

There’s not much going right for the Miami Marlins. One potential bright spot is a healthy Max Meyer MIA. The 3rd overall pick in 2020 has had a bumpy ride due to TJS that cost him all of 2023 and half of 2024. Meyer has expanded his arsenal this year and the initial results have been positive. A good spring training carried over into his first outing of the year. Meyer logged 93 pitches going 5 2/3 against the Pirates. Giving up just 5 hits, a walk, striking out 7 and falling one out short of a quality start.

Meyer used 5 different pitches, each contributing at least 12% to his mix. The slider remains his best and most used pitch. He deploys it equally against RHB and LHB and generated 11 of his 12 whiffs with it. Meyer still needs another out pitch, preferably the changeup. For fantasy, there’s something here just don’t overpay and keep in mind he will drag down your wins category given the state of the Marlins.

Josh Jung TEX moved to the IL prior to Sunday’s game. Jung has been dealing with neck issues. No clear timetable at the moment but given that Jung makes Byron Buxton look like Cal Ripken Jr. it might be a good time to deal for a replacement on your fantasy team or at least look for one in free agency.

Jacob Wilson SAC moved into the 6th spot of the order on Sunday after starting the season hitting 9th. This is a player with elite bat to ball skills, some speed, and likely a bit more pop than we realize. Keep an eye on this, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Wilson gets a shot at leadoff. If he does this elevates his profile significantly for fantasy and could also give Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker a boost.

Going into Sunday’s play the Seattle Mariners were 5 of 5 in steals and their manager has discussed a desire to be more aggressive on the base paths. It makes sense given their strikeout issues and struggles to score. If this holds we may see a boost in steals from both Julio Rodriguez and Victor Robles, while Ryan Bliss SEA could be the most interesting beneficiary. If Bliss can lock down second base we could be looking at 40+ steals to go with 10+ home runs.

Ryan Bliss has 60 grade speed and is coming off of back-to-back 50 steal seasons in the minors

That’s a wrap for Opening Weekend! Check back regularly for new content.

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