Early Fantasy Baseball Drafts: Ohtani, Witt Jr., Judge, Skenes and More
Dec 17, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
Draft season for 2025 Fantasy Baseball is underway and picking up steam. The NFBC (https://nfc.shgn.com/baseball) has already run over 200 drafts so baseball degenerates like me are in full swing already. The NFBC is where the early action is and it’s a great spot to start working on rankers. I use the NFBC, and specifically their $50s format, for early drafting and exploring different draft strategies for the upcoming season.
The NFBC $50s leagues are straight forward draft and holds. Twelve teams draft 50 players each and that is the entire roster for the year. There is no free agent action and no trading. Which I kinda love, particularly when managing a significant number of teams in season. So who you draft in the $50s is who you have for the season. Lineup structure is pretty typical and it does use 2 catchers.
Lineups are set twice per week and that’s it. It’s good practice to keep an eye on categories so you know where to lean your lineup. Then just cross your fingers for player health and some luck. As mentioned, with a modest entry fee it’s a great way to work your preseason ranker and try out different approaches.
I’ve completed 3 $50s so far and have used the 2 hour clock each time. So each draft usually lasts 6-9 days depending on how engaged league members are. Given that I have 3 in the books and another one already underway I feel it’s a good time to share some early observations for 2025 drafting. I’ll start by focusing on the top 150 or so players.
The consensus #1 overall is Shohei Ohtani LAD and he has gone #1 in 3 of my 4 drafts. The only draft that Ohtani fell from the top slot was when I drafted Bobby Witt Jr. KC at #1 overall. Why? It boils down to age, health and position impact for me. Ohtani is 6 years older, will only qualify at utility on offense, and is coming off of a shoulder injury. Odds are Ohtani comes back in 2025 and has another amazing year. But I think Witt will have a top 10 year too and I prefer to hedge here despite the consensus leaning to Ohtani.
2024 Comps for Witt Jr. and Ohtani - who’s your #1 overall for 2025?
I’ve already picked up 2 shares of Jose Ramirez CLE in my 4 drafts. Grabbing him at #3 and #6, while having him ranked as my #3 player in the draft. He offers consistent great production and does so at one of the more challenging positions to draft this year. JRam helps win leagues for people year in and year out.
Aaron Judge NYY has gone between #2 and #4 in my drafts and has an ADP of 3. I get it, the upside is huge and he easily could produce #1 overall stats. But at 32yo, and without Juan Soto NYM constantly on base in front of him, I have Judge number 7 overall. I tend to be conservative in the earlier rounds of a draft, working under the mindset that you can’t win a league in the early rounds but you might lose one.
Paul Skenes PIT is my top pitcher and Steamer’s projections (found at fangraphs.com) showcase why. They have Skenes delivering 13 wins, 188 K’s at 11.59 per 9, and a 2.81 ERA. Numbers that could turn out to be conservative and I am betting they will be. I actually have Skenes as #9 on my board, which is unusual for me to have a pitcher that high. And I have Tarik Skubal DET at #10.
My Skenes / Skubal rankings were put to the test in my current draft. I am drafting from the 12th position and both Skenes and Skubal were there when I was on the clock in round 1. So I did something I don’t think I have ever done, which is to double tap pitching with my first two picks. This should provide an incredible foundation for pitching categories while putting a bit of pressure on others in the draft to get their pitching. It also allows me to focus on mostly hitting for the next 5-6 picks.
I have faded Kyle Tucker CHC a tad due to the leg injury he sustained last year. It may not impact how he plays but if his stolen bases drop down into the teens then grabbing Tucker with a top 8 pick will likely turn out to be a bit pricey. Steamer even reflects this concern as current projections there have Tucker delivering .277/31/102/95/21. It would make for an outstanding year but would it be a top 10 season in fantasy? The move to the Chicago Cubs should be promising, though there are no guarantees when a player changes teams.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR is everyone’s first 1B and I’m no exception. First base is tough this year and you find this out quickly if you aren’t able to grab one of the early guys. So far I have two shares of Spencer Steer CIN for this very reason. Steer, Tristan Casas BOS, Christian Walker FA, and Vinnie Pasquantino KC are all in the 95-120 range. After this it gets a lot tougher to land a solid 1B bat.
The Jacksons were already becoming a thing last draft season and now they are a pretty huge one given that Jackson Chourio MLW and Jackson Merrill SD are both going in the first 3 rounds. Chourio has an ADP of 20 and I get it. I’ve even paid the price once already. A 20/20 season should be a lock and 30/30 is in reach, while not being a batting average risk either. And Merrill’s ADP of 30 works as well. He doesn’t have Chourio’s steals upside but the BA will likely be higher and he may have more RBI opportunities based upon where he will hit in the lineup. And then there is Jackson Holliday BAL who I am completely fading this year. I am unsure of his playing time as well as what kind of player he may become. Holliday is going in the mid 200’s so the price isn’t high but there are too many players with clearer paths in his range. 2026 may look very different for Holliday, this is just where I am for the upcoming season.
The Jacksons stellar 2024 stats side by side - who do you prefer for 2025 and beyond?
As mentioned earlier, the NFBC $50s is a two catcher format and having strength there can be a strategic advantage. You end up paying more for the production than it may appear to be worth but the position scarcity can create large performance gaps from team to team in your league. William Contreras MLW is the consensus top C. Not only do I agree with this but I am targeting him - picking up 2 shares already. With 600+ at bats coming with a strong batting average and counting stats there is everything to like here.
A couple of early starting pitchers I am avoiding anywhere near their current ADP are Corbin Burnes FA ADP 34 and Luis Castillo SEA ADP 84. Both are on noticable 3 year slides and have accumulated a lot of innings pitched in recent years. And Castillo has also lost 1.5mph on his average fastball velo. Given their high ADP’s I would rather avoid the potential for a continued drop off and pick up either a rising arm or a strong bat.
Corbin Burnes and Luis Castillo decline
Speaking of strong bats, here are four outfielders I would like to have everywhere: Wyatt Langford TEX ADP 48, James Wood WAS ADP 47, Lawrence Butler SAC ADP 87, and Dylan Crews WAS ADP 147. Each has 20/20 written all over them and each carries upside for 60 combined home runs and steals. Younger players, particularly those establishing themselves, tend to run the most and this group fits that description.
After a few drafts you start noticing position pockets that can be targeted and hopefully taken advantage of. An example of this is a group of 10 closers bunched together in the ADP range of 39-75. Emmanuel Clase CLE, Mason Miller SAC, Devin Williams NYY, Ryan Helsley STL, Josh Hader HOU, Raisel Iglesias ATL, Edwin Diaz NYM, Andres Munoz SEA, Robert Suarez SD, and Felix Bautista BAL. That’s also my order of preference, but it’s probably just splitting hairs. No doubt the ranks can be debated, particularly with me having Bautista last, but the bigger takeaway is that if you want saves this is the pocket where you need to grab your first closer.
I mentioned Lawrence Butler earlier and I am here for an even stronger season from him. The dynamic of the Athletics moving to Sacremento has me wondering how much of a boost their hitters will see. I am betting on some, particularly given the great reduction in foul territory from park to park. In addition to Butler I want every share of Brent Rooker SAC I can get. And I have been adding Jacob Wilson SAC, JJ Bleday SAC, and Tyler Soderstrom SAC when the price works. Zach Gelof SAC is a later upside target for some drafters but I am on full avoid until his contact ability improves. Gelof’s ridiculous 34.4% K rate and anemic .270 OBP put him at risk of losing his everyday role regardless of popping homers and stealing bags.
Spencer Schwellenbach ATL is one of the SP’s I am just all in on this year. He looked great in his rookie season and everything suggests it’s real - including the eye test. He threw 178 combined innings in 2024 so there should be no limits for 2025. And at an ADP of 99 I am willing to grab him ahead of Luis Castillo, Aaron Nola PHI, Bailey Ober MIN, Tanner Bibee CLE and so many others. I’ve also backed this up by dealing for Schwelly in a couple of my keeper / dynasty leagues.
Another SP I have targeted for 2025 is Hunter Brown HOU. Brown had a great 2nd half last year and at an ADP of 115 there is upside in the profile.
Willson Contreras STL is reportedly the Cardinals 1B for 2025, which makes his value jump as a C eligible player. This should boost Contreras’s at bats by 150 or more and hopefully will also keep him healthier. These extra AB’s really matter when the production is there. It has me ranking Contreras above Will Smith LAD and many otheres for 2025. Smith used to benefit from DH AB’s but that has dried up since Ohtani’s arrival. Contreras has an ADP of 109 and I wouldn’t hesitate to grab him 20 spots before that if it fit my build.
Matt McLain CIN looked good and looked strong in the AFL this year. He appears healthy and if so a 20/20 season is on the table. That is a strong return for a 105 ADP that has drifted below that in several of my drafts. In fact I was able to grab him at 121 in my 2nd draft.
Here’s a question I have been wrestling with. What’s a reduced SP workload worth when you know the players season debut will be delayed due to injury recovery? There are quite a few examples this year such as Spencer Strider ATL, Shane Bieber CLE, and Eury Perez MIA. Each of which I have already picked up shares of in the $50s format. If you have a roster limit, FAAB, etc. this consideration changes but for draft and hold with a 50 man roster I feel like these are strategic value targets. Strider has an ADP of 103 but that is dropping and I’ve picked him up at 123 and 126 so far. Twenty starts of a 2024 Strider would be hugely impactful at a pick in the 120’s.
Anthony Volpe NYY is a guy that doesn’t show well in most advanced metrics yet Steamer has him projected for 18 home runs and 28 steals. With an ADP of 156 he’s a solid target for your main MI or possibly even a late SS fill. Zach Neto LAA is a similar player going in the same range now since questions regarding his shoulder recovery have come out. For me I have to fade Neto further until either I know his health is there or until the price fits the risk. Neto’s early ADP of 80 has fallen fast and I think the Volpe range or below is a better fit - but I would take the healthy Volpe first.
That’s probably enough for now. I’ll drop another article covering thoughts beyond the pick 150 range. I’ll also continue to share interesting player and / or position movement from my future drafts.
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