Early Fantasy Baseball Drafts Part 2: Matt Shaw, Sanchez, Steals, Saves, and SP’s

Dec 20, 2024

Author: 3-1Count.com

This is part two of what is likely to end up being a three part series taking a look at early season ADP’s and associated player value. If you missed the first piece you can find it here (https://www.3-1count.com/blog/early-fantasy-baseball-drafts-ohtani-witt-jr-judge-skenes-amp-more). For part two, the focus will be on ADP range 150-300. I continue to use the NFBC (https://nfc.shgn.com/baseball) for ADP’s as it is so active, logging 170 completed Fantasy Baseball drafts just from Dec 1 to today.

You can make a case that Fantasy Baseball leagues can be won in the 150-300 ADP range. Particularly in a draft and hold format like the NFBC $50s, which is where I am drafting atm. Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the names that standout in what are rounds 12 -25 (12 team league).

Trevor Megill MLW will spend little to no time in this mid-round range. But I wanted to mention him right off the bat because he was not in my last piece. With Devin Williams NYY traded Megill is the guy in Milwaukee. I know there has been speculation that someone else might step up but don’t bite on that narrative. It’s Megill, he’s the Brewers closer and he’s going to be very, very good. We are talking about a 6’8 imposing figure that averages (!) 98.8mph on his fastball. And he does it with 68th percentile extension - which makes the implied velocity even higher. Megill is a 2 pitch guy with the unusual combination of a knuckle curve to back up the heater. And that off-speed pitch has an other-worldly 55% whiff rate!

Neither righties or lefties can hit Megill. He only gave up 4 home runs in 46.1 IP last year and walked just 14 against 50 K’s. Megill was the closer last season while Williams was injured and he delivered a 2.05 ERA in the 1st half while predominantly in the role. That’s who I think we get for a full season, which would make Megill a top 10-15 closer at least. In my drafts Megill was sitting around pick 300 until the Williams trade was announced. in my next draft he had already jumped to pick 112 and in the NFBC he’s already gone as high at 78. At pick 100 or earlier you are paying pretty much full price for Megill and it’s likely worth it. But if you need a closer and see him drift past 100 there should be profit available!

Speaking of trade impact, with Isaac Paredes HOU and Cody Bellinger NYY being dealt by the Chicago Cubs it has become clear that they intend to give Matt Shaw CHC a hard look at 3B. Shaw was the 13th overall pick in 2023 and has bolted through the minors - ultimately logging 35 games at AAA last year. Shaw offers position versatility, power and speed, while also keeping his K rate below 20% and his BB rate above 10%. Currently Steamer is projecting 14/53/53/14 .250 over 452 PA’s. If Shaw makes the Cubs out of spring training, which is very possible, he will exceed the counting stats and probably hang around that .250 BA.

Matt Shaw’s Prospect Report at Fangraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com)

In four drafts I have seen Shaw move up consistently (315, 285, 279, 205). That was me grabbing him at 205 and I felt good about it. It’s a range where taking a chance for big upside won’t crush your season if it doesn’t happen. And I feel like you need to take some calculated shots like this to win leagues. The highest Shaw has been taken in NFBC is 57, and that is priced beyond perfection. It’s a risk level with virtually zero chance for profit and plenty of opportunity for loss. At that ADP load me up with Jose Altuve HOU, Brent Rooker SAC, Willy Adames SF, Wyatt Langford TEX, James Wood WAS and others.

Yandy Diaz TAM keeps sliding in my drafts. And I keep passing on him and I’m not sure why. 1B is tough this year and Diaz is a solid if not an upside pick. I have him 175 (likely to move down) on my list and he went 246 in my last draft. Diaz currently has an ADP of 214.

I haven’t done enough homework on how the Tampa Rays new ballpark might influence player performance on both sides of the ball. My assumption is that it is unlikely to help pitching performances so I am hedging accordingly. I like Ryan Pepiot TAM quite a lot as an SP and feel like last year gave us a look at what he can do. But at an ADP of 155 I just keep passing him over in favor of players without this kind of question mark.

A starting pitcher going below Pepiot that I actually prefer at his ADP is Christopher Sanchez PHI (187). If Sanchez can figure out a better fastball option than his current sinker he is going to become a force. The reason is that Sanchez has both an excellent change up and slider. With the change up being one of the best in the game. The change up cripples righties and the slider is there for the lefties. Steamer says 12 wins, 179 IP, 7.89 K rate and a 3.49 ERA. That would create solid profit anywhere near his ADP while leaving further upside. I’ve backed this up with 3 shares so far (193, 190, 204).

Baseball Savant - Christopher Sanchez PHI

In general, there are a lot of strong SP’s in the 175-225 range and you should plan on grabbing at least one or even two from the group. The list includes Yusei Kikuchi LAA (146), Reynaldo Lopez ATL (150), Robbie Ray SF (153), Zach Eflin BAL (176), Luis Gil NYY (184), Taj Bradley TAM (186), Nick Pivetta FA (193), MacKenzie Gore WAS (202), Nate Eovaldi TEX (203), Spencer Arrighetti HOU (216) and Ronel Blanco HOU (229).

Staying on SP’s for a minute longer here’s a debate I had with an experience and very good fantasy player this week. Who do you prefer between Mitch Keller PIT and Reese Olson DET? Neither should be in your primary rotation to start the season but both are at or near the top of your depth chart once drafted. So they would be spot starters or injury replacements. My friend has Keller over Olson by a tad and I am the reverse. After looking at it here are my key takeaways between the two. Keller is an innings eater, has mediocre advanced metrics, is a WHIP killer and has lost a bit of velocity on his fastball. Olson’s advanced metrics are more promising, Detroit is a good pitchers ballpark, and he had a very solid 1st half last year before going down with injury. Olson has an ADP of 273, while Keller is at 298.

Brandon Nimmo NYM is boring. I know it and you know it. But at an ADP of 164 (119 to 234 range) he is a solid asset at a position that can get tough. If Nimmo hit’s at the top of the order he would have Juan Soto NYM coming up behind him - that should be a nice boost in runs scored. Nimmo has averaged 151 games played the last 3 seasons and I’m counting on him outperforming his Steamer PJ of 19/80/72/8 .252.

Brandon Nimmo has been very consistent the last three years

Looking for affordable steals between picks 150-300? A few options include Bryson Stott PHI, Lane Thomas CLE, Masyn Winn STL, and Maikel Garcia KC. There are reasons each player is living in this range so take that into account with your team context. Stott and Garcia should exceed 30 steals each, Thomas could get there, and Winn has the ability as well despite logging only 11 last year.

Did you miss out on early closers? Or do you follow my normal path to grab an early closer and then wait for a “value” to pop up? Look, there really aren’t actual values with closers. They are all overpays against contribution but necessary ones if you want to win leagues and compete for overall prizes. Punting a category just greatly diminishes your chance to win. It can be done, but it shifts the odds further against you.

So, here we are in the mid rounds and you need another closer. Names that may be available include Kirby Yates FA, Porter Hodge CHC, Alexis Diaz CIN, David Bednar PIT, Justin Martinez ARI and Jordan Romano PHI. Yates has a wide range (67-265) with an ADP of 123. No chance I am paying that price without knowing he has signed and is locked into a closer role. If he fell to 175 I would get more interested as I think it’s probable he closes somewhere.

Hodge (ADP 181) was quite good in his short stint as the Cubs closer and we should buy the arsenal. The caution is that the Cubs could be the team to sign Yates or add someone else. Thus moving Hodge back to the 8th inning role. Alexis Diaz CIN is a hard pass for me. He’s on a 3 year decline, his Savant page is ugly, and he might be traded into a non-closing situation. Way, way, way too much risk for an ADP of 141 and his pick range of 66-275 reflects the concerns.

Bednar (188 ADP), Martinez (226 ADP) and Romano (233 in my last draft) are the guys in this group I am most likely to go after. The risk reward is more favorable and atm each appears to be in the closer role. Also, there are a batch of set-up men that could move into a saves role that we will discuss in the next article.

Multi-position eligibility can be a really important player asset when building out a draft and hold squad. Generally, on a 50 man team you want to be at least 4 deep in eligibility at all infield positions and then 10-12 deep in the OF. All while drafting 20-22 pitchers, so that leaves 28-30 hitter slots. Adding to the complexity, it’s harder this year to grab the extra eligibility than it was last year.

Three players I target in the 150-300 range that offer an extra position are Brendan Donovan STL, Jake Cronenworth SD, and Joey Ortiz MLW. Donovan is my favorite of the three. He’s eligible at 2B and OF, has strong advanced metrics, is a career .280 hitter, and should be in the heart of the Cardinal’s lineup. What Donovan lacks in counting stats he makes up for in steady production at an affordable 238 ADP. I’ve grabbed Donovan in all 4 of my drafts (241, 219, 222, 228). This is the range where Colt Keith DET, Ryan Jeffers MIN, Michael Busch CHC, and Nolan Jones COL are going.

Cronenworth has a lower APD (277), will give you less BA but possibly a few more counting stats. His 1B and 2B eligibility is also nice given how shallow 1B gets. The main caution here is can Cronenworth continue to hold a FT role with the Padres and will he get traded into a lesser role. Given that he is on a 7 year / $80m contract that carries until 2030 it looks likely he plays FT at least for a few more years. Additionally, he was 5% above league average (wRC+) last year and advanced metrics show he still has a good approach at the plate. There’s nothing exciting about drafting Cronenworth, yet he is exactly the type of player that can factor into winning a league. So far I have 3 shares of Cronenworth (262, 270, 252).

Joey Ortiz MLW doesn’t currently have multi-position eligibility but it is coming. He played predominantly at 3B last year, while logging a few innings at 2B and SS. For 2025 Ortiz is pencilled in as the everyday SS. When you trade Corbin Burnes FA for someone, you play them. Ortiz is a strong defender and has a solid approach at the plate - he is going to play everyday. Steamer projects 13/65/62/12 .253 and I see upside here. A guy that can give you 30+ home runs and steals, while eligible at 2 positions, at an ADP of 294 is someone I want. I have 2 shares (296 and 294) and plan to get more.

Three other names I want to fit into this article are Byron Buxton MIN (245), Carlos Correa MIN (255) and Lars Nootbaar STL (260). Each has had trouble staying on the field but check out these 162 game averages from the trio.

What if Buxton, Correa or Nootbaar put up a full season in 2025?

Even 130 games of Buxton or Correa would present meaningful profit at this ADP. And I believe there is still upside with Nootbaar, which is pretty evident looking at his advanced metrics. The 250 pick range is a great spot to take a shot or two and these are three strong candidates to consider.

Check back next week for part three of this look at early drafts for 2025 Fantasy Baseball!

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