Friday Baseball Thoughts
May 10, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
Friday Baseball Thoughts
Paul Skenes, last year’s 1.1 draft pick will debut Sat against the CHC. Skene’s college career speaks for itself, he also moved from CPX to AAA in less than a calendar year - logging 55 K’s in 34 IP. And his first opponent, the Cubbies, strikeout a lot this year. They are currently tied for 8th worst in K’s at 335 YTD. My expectation for Skene’s this year is for flashes of brilliance mixed with growing pains. I also believe 100 big league IP is likely the max we will see from Skenes. This is the must watch baseball event of the weekend for me.
With much less fanfare than Skenes we will see Robert Gasser debut Fri night against the Cardinals. He was the 71st overall pick in 2021 and has risen steadily through the Brewers system. Gasser’s calling card has been a deep arsenal that consistently has driven a K/9 rate of 11+. He started the year on the IL and has only logged 12 innings over 3 games so he is still building up strength. I do not expect him to go deep in his debut and also would not be surprised if this turns out to just be a spot start. That said, there is a lot here to like long term and possibly even for the remainder of 2024. There is a path to 12-15 big league starts for Gasser in 2024.
Shohei Ohtani is receiving so much attention, both on and off the field. Sticking with his on-field performance it has been spectacular. Ohtani is somehow on pace for career best numbers in most every category. And yet he’s not the current MVP of his own team, at least in my opinion. Not with Mookie Betts doing what he is on offense and defense. Betts provides elite defense wherever the Los Angeles Dodgers plug him in and that versatility is huge for a team. And then on offense Mookie is an absolute spark plug for the Dodgers. Mookie won an MVP in 2018 and this year is shaping up similarly for him. Worth noting, he already has 3 2nd place MVP finishes as well. With Freddie Freeman the Dodgers are running 3 future HOFer’s out there every night. The group of Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman have 4 MVP’s and 13 Top 5 MVP finishes with more to come. The Dodgers have pitching this year, have farm depth, and clearly have an elite offense. In fact, they are 1st in MLB in runs scored and 3rd in ERA. To me, clearly the team to beat in baseball.
Most baseball fans realize the Chicago White Sox have been pretty awful so far this year. They easily lead MLB in fewest runs scored. Maybe not receiving as much attention is just how bad the St. Louis Cardinals offense has been. Ahead of only the White Sox in runs scored, the Cards have averaged just 3.43 runs per game while giving up 4.54 runs per game. Coming into the season I expected the Cards pitching to be the biggest issue but it’s more or less middle of the pack ranked 19th in ERA. Not good, but no where near as big of an issue as the lack of offense. Jordan Walker and Victor Scott are both back in the minors while Nootbar, Gorman, Donovan, and Goldschmidt have all struggled. In fact, the Cards best hitter so far this year has probably been Willson Contreras and he is now out for at least 10 weeks after surgery on his L forearm. This from an injury reportedly driven by the teams request to have him move up behind the dish in an effort to get more low called strikes. It’s an injury I don’t think I have ever seen and one that seemed totally avoidable. It’s likely to be a long summer in St. Louis as the Cards determine their best path moving forward.
I watch a lot of Atlanta Braves baseball. And I’m lucky because somehow my wife enjoy’s watching the Braves with me. Even with the injuries, under-performances, and other question marks this is still a really good team. However, watching the Dodgers handle them last weekend was difficult and really showcases that the two teams are on different levels atm. To me, the Braves energy and vibe has swayed a bit this year - in a similar way as to what I felt happen at the end of the 2023 regular season and then into the playoffs. And with so many Braves underperforming offensively it’s been hard for them to get on the type of rolls they did last year. The last couple of games have felt different though. Austin Riley’s defense on Wednesday was inspirational and Marcell Ozuna just continue’s to carry the offense. I keep waiting for Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna, Michael Harris, and Austin Riley to start lighting things up and expect that it is coming soon.
Prospect Watch:
Tyler Black was sent back down after just 23 plate appearances. Little production and a 35% K rate are just part of the story. The larger consideration is the Brewers are quietly one of the best teams in baseball, they are driving for a divisional win, and they had Christian Yelich coming back from the IL. Someone had to go to open a spot and given how well youngsters Joey Ortiz and Bryce Turang are playing it had to be Black.
Heston Kjerstad is providing big league depth for the Baltimore Orioles yet is receiving very little actual playing time. I get the frustration fantasy players have with this but I also get why it’s happening. The Orioles are committed to winning and Kjerstad has nothing left to learn at AAA. So he is up, yet unable to crack the lineup. And this gets even more complicated with Austin Hays comes off the IL, which will likely be soon and may cause Kjerstad to go back to AAA.
A Junior Caminero promotion should be imminent. He’s comfortably handling AAA at only 20 years old. Currently hitting .321, with a .382 OBA and a .605 slug. This while walking 9% of the time and striking out less than 20%. Caminero can play 3B, SS, presumably 1B, and can DH. Even with Josh Lowe back and Brandon Lowe on rehab to return soon it seems there would be at bats for Caminero. One thing to keep in mind though is that the Rays are heavy on the right side of the box and may prefer to bring left handed Jonathan Aranda back up before Caminero. Both are on the 40 man but Aranda is struggling at AAA, sporting a 37% K rate atm.
James Wood is my other prospect drum I keep beating. The talent is electric and he has handled AAA incredibly well - while being young for the level at 21yo. Wood is sitting on 5 homers, 9 steals, a 15% walk rate, and a 20% K rate through May 9. He is also hitting .344 with a .443 OBP. The Washington Nationals have made a point of saying he is still working on things at AAA so seemingly they are signaling that he will not be up soon. Yet from a position of need they called up Trey Lipscomb earlier this year and he has already logged over 100 plate appearances at the big league level. This despite less time at AAA than Wood now has. My point is that need brought Lipscomb up and it’s difficult to think they don’t currently have a need in their OF. For a team playing .500 baseball, and with a rising group of young players, it’s not likely that Jesse Winker, Eddie Rosario, or Victor Robles would block Wood for long. Jacob Young has played well and will likely be in the OF mix all year with Lane Thomas. Expect a trade and or DFA from the Winker, Rosario, Robles, Gallo group to help open the path for Wood.
That’s all for now. I hope you have a chance to get out and catch a big league or minor league game over the weekend.
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