Weekend Recap
May 13, 2024
Weekend Recap
Author: 3-1Count.com
The Paul Skenes debut took center stage this weekend, and rightfully so for an electric #1 overall pick from just last year. Weather was a factor, even causing a delay after Skenes was removed, but ultimately the whole game was played.
My expectations for his debut and ROS were and are similar - flashes of brilliance mixed with growing pains. And I feel we saw just that in his debut. The fastball averaged 100.1mph and made up 39% of his mix. The slider was 85mph / 27% mix, a version of a split came in a 95mph / 25%, and he added a couple of change ups at 88mph. The change ups were just for LH hitters as they dove down and away arm side.
This is a tough arsenal for hitters to face, yet we all know big league bats will catch up to any velo if it doesn’t have movement, isn’t located, and doesn’t have the right complimentary pitches around it. With Skenes, he was not in full command of the fastball and few are at that velo. His slider, split, and change have nice velo separation and when he is on just two of those pitches in a game he will be really difficult to handle. It will make that fastball just that much better.
As fun as the Skenes outing was it was not the best pitching debut of the weekend. From a results standpoint, that honor belongs to Robert Gasser - a pitching prospect I have had my eye on since he was drafted 71st overall in the 2021 draft by the Milwaukee Brewers. An organization with a strong track record of developing young arms. Gasser does it differently than Skenes, his fastball and sinker both sit 92-94mph. His approach is built upon a deep arsenal and command, yet in his debut he primarily threw only 3 types of pitches. An 80mph sweeper made up almost half of his pitches and then the fastball and sinker were featured from there.
Gasser threw 6 innings, striking out 4, allowing no walks, and only 2 hits. No runs allowed. He’s lined up for another big league start this week. This time against the Pirates and it will be interesting to see what adjustments might be made in his second outing. Gasser was my number one pitching prospect to target this draft season. And I ended up with him on 80% of my NFBC rosters as well as most of my dynasty teams - where I had him rostered for several years in some cases. Gasser has an opportunity to log 18-22 big league starts ROS. With 135 IP last year at AAA it’s reasonable to think Milwaukee would be willing to have him throw in the 150 IP range this year.
Staying on young pitching for a moment, Christian Scott NYM followed up his impressive debut with a solid outing against a tough Braves lineup. He’s now gone at least 6 IP in both of his starts and delivered a QS each time. He lines up for a mid-week outing against the Phillies this week - another tough assignment.
Picking between Skenes, Gasser and Scott for ROS redraft makes for an interesting conversation. Looking at IP capacity (chart below) estimates it would appear Gasser has the path for most remaining IP while Scott likely the least. On pure stuff, you take Skenes. No doubt. But taking everything into consideration, including cost of acquisition I would go Gasser, Skenes, then Scott. For dynasty you have to go for elite talent like Skenes if you are willing to do what it takes to acquire him. I would rank the three Skenes then Gasser then Scott for dynasty. And I likely wouldn’t pay the cost of Skenes, preferring to target Gasser or Scott.
And so as not to discriminate, Justin Verlander showed that the experienced arms can still get it done to. At 41yo Verlander shut down the Detroit Tigers for 7 innings, allowing just 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 8. The K’s have been missing and the velo is not what it once was but the future HOFer knows how to pitch. He’s a worthy dice roll ROS, particularly in redraft.
It feels like Elly De La Cruz is doing that thing this year that Ronald Acuna Jr. was doing last year - where everyone one is on an Elly 162 game projected stat watch. Atm, Elly has 9 home runs and 25 steals - which is a 162 game projection of 38 and 100. His OBP is .366 so he should have ample opportunity to run and his EV of 93.4 and barrel rate of 14.4% suggest the power will keep coming. Atm, 30/70 seems very much in play and even likely. Remarkable numbers. Preseason the Sports Books had Elly’s over/under on home runs at 21.5 and steals at 40.5. I took the over on both and they look remarkably low now.
We are roughly 25% into the season so I took a look at divisional standings.
AL East: Orioles are playing .667 ball and leading the division. But the two things that surprise me in the division are the Yankees playing so well and only a 1/2 game back and the Rays playing so poorly and now 7 games back.
AL Central: This is quietly a very good division. The Guardians are in first, where you would expect them. The Twins now tied with the Royals for 2nd and only a 1/2 game back after a hot streak. And those Royals are much better than expected. Sporting a division leading +49 run differential it would not surprise me to see the Royals win the division. Also, the Tigers at .500 and with a number of near MLB ready prospects at AAA to help out.
AL West: This looks like a two team race between the Mariners and Rangers. The Astro’s meltdown has been injury and performance driven.
NL East: The red hot Phillies lead the division by 2 games over the Braves and sport an MLB 2nd best run differential of +62. The Marlins currently feel like the team that may have the most losses in MLB rest of season.
NL Central: I’ve been on the Brewers for weeks now, just think this is a really good baseball team. One that is playing well and has depth to work with. Currently they are 1/2 game up on the Cubbies who are also playing very good ball. Getting Justin Steele back to 2023 form would be great for Chicago to go along with Imanaga’s dominant start to his MLB career.
NL West: Once again, the Dodgers. Already a 5 1/2 game lead and an MLB best +74 run differential. The Padres are the only other team playing above .500 and it’s going to be a long season in Colorado. Again.
Prospect notes:
James Wood continues to rake. He’s riding a 9 game hitting streak and has hit in 14 of his last 15. During this stretch he is hitting .411 with 5 homers, 15 runs scored, 16 RBI, 4 steals…and 9 walks to 10 K’s. The Nationals have more or less stated they are slow rolling him for development reasons. This type of performance combined with under-performance and / or injury at the big league level will have Wood up sooner than the August range that has been suggested. Wood is a top 10 prospect pretty much everywhere and likely is top 3 for me.
Kevin McGonigle isn’t a name high on most prospect radars. I’m not sure he is top 100 on any list I follow. McGonigle was taken #37 overall in last years draft by the Detroit Tigers. He was a high school pick and is still just 19yo and playing at single A. I loved McGonigle’s compact swing, approach, and mentality at draft and all of that remains apparent almost a year later. He has a 137 wRC+ atm, and a career .314 BA with 24 BB’s to only 15 K’s. The plate skills are very strong, speed is good, and baseball IQ incredibly high. The question of power development remains one to watch. If you’re in deep dynasty, try to add him to your team. Otherwise, he’s a guy to watch.
What do Kyle Manzardo, Tyler Black, Jackson Holliday, Victor Scott, Jordan Beck, Joey Loperfido and so many others prospects have in common? That MLB is the highest level of competition and it is really, really hard to do well there. Particularly for young hitters. Development takes time and I really buy into the idea that it is not linear. It’s important to keep this in mind from a fan standpoint and probably even more important from a fantasy baseball perspective. Overpaying for rookies in dynasty or through redraft FAAB can hurt your chances moving forward. There are winning tickets to be had but often chasing prospect debuts can be a challenging, frustrating experience. One really important thing to keep in mind when doing so is to consider whether there is and will be a clear, sustainable path to playing time if challenges surface.
That’s a wrap for today. Looking forward to tonights MLB schedule and also getting out to catch a couple MILB games this week.
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