Fantasy Focus: Infield Buy, Sell, Hold
Fantasy Focus: Infield Buy, Sell, Hold
Jul 3, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
We are more or less at the midway point of the MLB season. Which makes this a good time to take a look at how players are performing from a fantasy perspective. I’m approaching this review primarily from a redraft perspective and assuming that we are talking about fantasy teams that are competing this year. So, with this in mind I’ve gone through each infield position and identified one (at least) player to buy, one to hold, and one to sell.
Here we go:
Catcher
Buy: Logan O’Hoppe would get a lot more attention for most other teams, but the Angels keep doing Angel things and he stays under the radar. Meanwhile he is just 24yo and is crushing baseballs with hard hit rates, EV, and sweet spot contact all rating top 25%. I would probably rank only Adley Rutschman BAL, William Contreras MIL, and Will Smith LAD above O’Hoppe at this point.
Runner-up: Patrick Bailey SF
Hold: There’s always a lot of hold options but I am going Cal Raleigh SEA here. The average and OBP have been brutal but the power and RBI are both excellent. And somehow he has tossed in 4 stolen bases. The key here is that Raleigh is going to play almost every day at either catcher or DH. Those extra at bats, along with the power production, make up for a lot of the BA/OBP issues. I also want to point out that Raleigh had a much better 2nd half last year and has been stronger in the back half during his career.
Sell: I ended up with quite a few shares of Jonah Heim TEX in redraft this year. He put up 95 RBI last year while accumulating a lot of at bats. Are you catching the theme, I like backstops that play a lot. On Heim, his underlying Statcast data has regressed noticeably. He still keeps his K’s down but his ISO is also dramatically down. If you are pushing to place in your league you need a stronger catcher.
First Base
Buy: Go get Josh Naylor CLE if you can. He’s hitting cleanup for the 1st place Guardians and currently sits .242/45/20/61/3. Naylor’s ISO is at an all time high, he strikes out less than 20% of the time, and maybe most importantly for upside he easily has a career low BABIP that has siphoned 30 points off of his batting average.
Runner-up: Yandy Diaz TAM
Hold: Matt Olson ATL is still hitting the ball hard and getting to barrels. The K rate is up and the Braves offense has been all over the place this year. Recently I have seen Olson taking balls to LC more frequently and that’s encouraging. But the main reason I see Olson as a hold is that it almost has to get better for him and the Braves - plus it would be selling at an uncomfortable discount for a guy that just hit 54 homers, drove in 139 and scored 127.
Sell: This one may be a bit of a cop out. If I have Carlos Santana MIN I am working to see what I can get in return. Santana has been a great one year sign for the Twins, producing well at the plate and providing clubhouse leadership. But at 38yo with the Twins pushing for the playoffs we could see Santana’s playing time decrease. The Twins have quite a few big league ready players that are pushing for playing time. And they will also be active in the trade market.
Second Base
Buy: Sometimes you lean into what looks like an over performance, particularly in redraft. Brice Turang might be that guy. He does what he does really well - makes contact, can turn on something inside, and is a terror on the bases. All while eligible at both 2B and SS. The primary reason I include him here is that he can impact a category like few others. Currently 2nd in MLB with 28 steals, and against only 4 caught stealing. His slash over 162 projects to a really fun .287/81/12/75/55.
Hold: Ketel Marte and Jose Altuve have been so good that it would be hard to imagine having the depth to deal them when in contention. Ride the wave, both are having elite years.
Sell: I hope I’m wrong on this one because I love the player. But Ozzie Albies underlying metrics look eerily similar to his disappointing 2022 season. He’s just not hitting the ball hard and has been even worse than career norms against RHP. As a Braves fan I’ll be thrilled if I’m wrong.
Shortstop
The top tier of shortstops is loaded and then there is quality depth beyond that. So picking out a few to feature here is no easy task.
Buy: Francisco Lindor NYM is 9th in OPS among SS’s but has 14 homers and 15 steals. And since May 19 Lindor is toting a .315/30/7/19/9 slash. Acquisition cost might still be reasonable for a player that could deliver just below the elite SS’s.
Hold: I believe in riding hot legit players. Sometimes it all just comes together for a magical season. So, if you are competing, ride Gunnar Henderson BAL and Bobby Witt Jr. KC to the finish line. But if you are not in the hunt and in a keeper / dynasty format either should bring an incredible haul back.
Sell: You’ll catch a constant theme that I strongly believe in maximizing playing time. Not at the expense of quality, but as an extension of it. So here I am targeting Carlos Correa MIN. A big name player, for a playoff contender, and having a strong season. Capitalize on that value and reduce your exposure to down time / missed production from a player that has battled this issue his entire career.
Third Base
Buy: I have to go with Austin Riley ATL here. Find a frustrated owner and do what it takes (within reason) to grab Riley. There is zero skill erosion here. Chalk it up to whatever has happened to the Braves offense as a whole. Last year after the All-Star break Riley slashed .300/56/21/53/1. A repeat would be a glorious addition to any lineup!
Hold: If you’re catching the theme, let’s hold onto Rafael Devers BOS and Jose Ramirez CLE. Both having great seasons, particularly Ramirez who is somehow a bit undervalued every year in redraft. At 31yo he is not slowing down a bit.
Sell: Alec Bohm PHI is having a strong campaign and the Phillies lineup is going to continue piling up runs. I’m confident Bohm will continue to produce, but if you can find someone chasing RBI’s you may get an upside return while still being able to match Bohm’s production.
That’s it for today. I’ll return with Buy, Sell, Hold for outfielders, starting pitchers, and relievers soon.
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