Fantasy Focus: Buy, Sell, Hold Outfielders
Fantasy Focus: Buy, Sell, Hold Outfielders
Jul 5, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
This is a follow up to my most recent article, which covers Buy, Sell, Hold for Infield positions. You can take a look at it here:
https://www.3-1count.com/blog/infieldbuyholdsell070324
Today we are looking at Outfielders and will highlight several players to Buy, Hold, or Sell.
Buy:
Jackson Merrill SD is making regular appearances when I write. I just can’t help myself. The swing is awesome, he’s playing full-time as a young 21yo, and Merrill sure seems to be a humble guy who gets it. I’ve been a big supporter since seeing him in the 2022 AFL. And yet there’s no way I can claim I saw this much coming this quick.
Ok, why to buy Merrill in redraft is the question? It’s obvious why in keeper or dynasty, but redraft you could easily conclude to sell high on Merrill. And you might be right. What I like is that the Padres are playing better and better baseball. And Merrill is an increasingly important part of their offense. I mean, he hit 3rd against Max Scherzer TEX on Jul 4th. Also, Merrill’s Baseball Savant page looks amazingly good for a young player - so under the hood checks out. And his results appear sustainable. You are looking at a player that could bring you a .280+ average, and double digits steals and home runs the rest of the way. Add a 20% boost to that if things really connect for Merrill. And given how great his Jun was, this is possible.
I could go any direction with Brenton Doyle COL. He’s an imperfect player performing well beyond his early career norms. For this article let’s buy him, and here’s why. Doyle is a premium defender and is not coming out of this lineup while healthy. So we are talking about a player putting up a 162 game pace of .268/91/19/60/37. Adding Doyle makes even more sense if you need steals and if you are in a daily league. Like many Rockies before him, Doyle puts up much better numbers when at home. So in daily leagues you can easily work this to your advantage. In weeklies, you can still pick weeks where he has more home games but that’s not as attractive as daily for Doyle.
There are likely a lot of fantasy team owners who are either frustrated with carrying Michael Harris II ATL on the IL or just not convinced he can be reasonably productive again this year. See if that’s the case in your league. If so, explore the deal. Harris is starting to run again and will likely be back from the IL in July, hopefully mid-month if things go well. The Braves desperately need him given the state of their offense and the fact that Ronald Acuna Jr. is out for the season. Harris should be plugged into the leadoff spot hitting in front of Albies, Olson and Riley - so he will see fastballs, a pitch he has hit very well in his career. If Harris can step up the quality of his at bats he could have a very strong 2nd half. And we are talking about a player who has hit .317 after the All-Star break in his career.
Hold:
With Aaron Judge NYY and Juan Soto NYY you just relax and ride the wave with them if you are competing. Both are having amazing, league winning type seasons and short of an injury this isn’t going to change. On the flip side, if you are in or nearing a rebuild mode in dynasty you could get an absolutely massive return for either. Just look back at what the Washington Nationals received for Juan Soto - CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, and James Wood are now making up the core of a rapidly improving team.
I had an interesting back and forth in a keeper league this week. We were discussing Ronald Acuna ATL for Julio Rodriguez SEA plus another piece. The deal didn’t come together but thinking through it was fun. Given where Julio is now it would be hard to get 80% value for him and that’s a dilemma particularly in redraft. I say ride him out at this point and hope that last nights combo meal is indicative of better things ahead. My biggest concern with Julio may be the fact that the league has no reason to pitch to him until the Mariners do something with their putrid offense.
Runner-ups: Steven Kwan CLE, Riley Greene DET, Jarren Duran BOS
Sell:
Jurickson Profar SD has been really good this year. He’s finally having the type of year that most expected from the former #1 overall prospect. So, why sell? My thinking is that you have minimal capital tied up in Profar and this is a player performing significantly out of his career norms. At 31yo he may continue to rake, and underlying metrics are favorable. Or he might begin to fade as the league adjusts to the new Profar. And it’s possible we are seeing a bit of that as Jun was his softest performance of the season (still solid though). To me this is a pretty prime sell high candidate that could give you the opportunity to strengthen your team in an area of need. I have to admit, a couple of weeks ago I was discussing dealing for Profar and just couldn’t bring myself to pay the ask on him. While the return wasn’t unfair it was the thought process above that had me look elsewhere.
The Marlins are a lost team atm and that’s unlikely to be a scenario that gets the most out of a player like Jazz Chisholm MIA. He does have 10 homers and 15 steals on the year. That combined with his name value, that likely exceeds actual results, puts Jazz squarely in my sights for a sell. OF can be harder than most realize to get production so this could be a chance to get a needed boost in pitching or another position.
Would you have guessed Jesse Winker WAS has the 12th highest OPS among OF’s? And he has 12 steals despite having only 3 in his previous 7 big league seasons?!? Winker appears to have slimmed down and we all know the Nationals are going to run. I mean constantly run every game. Like Profar, this is a player you likely landed with FAAB after the season started. So you don’t have a lot tied up in him. Winker has always been a solid hitter but this is shaping up as a career year at age 30. There are two primary things I am factoring in with Winker. One is that his BABIP (batting average balls in play) is well above career norms and the other is that I am concerned about his playing time moving forward. With James Wood promoted Winker is now the 4th outfielder for the Nats. This could quickly turn into platoon level at bats for Winker who is a .212 hitter against lefties in his career. I also don’t see the SB rate continuing given his 17th percentile speed. And we have to add in the possibility he is traded into an even lesser role with a stronger team. So, find someone looking for batting average and stolen bases and present Winker. See what you can put together.
Next up on Fantasy Focus: Buy, Hold, Sell will be pitchers. I should have that out by Monday. Many thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts on what to do with Outfielders at mid-season.
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