The Jacksons, Elly, Tucker, Braves and Extensions
Apr 2, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
The Jacksons, Elly, Tucker, Braves and Extensions
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Let’s kick it off with today’s announcement that Jackson Merrill SD and the San Diego Padres have agreed to a 9 year $135m extension. The deal also includes a club option at $30m for a 10th year (apparently can be converted to a player option). There are also escalators that could raise the deal to $204m. It’s not bad work if you can get it! Worth noting is that the extension kicks in next year so at just under 22yo Merrill would enter free agency at either 31 or 32yo depending on the option year.
Here’s the thing to know - what Merrill lacks in flashiness he more than makes up for as an exceptionally gifted major league ballplayer. Consider that he’s younger than most top prospects and has already interestingly logged exactly 162 big league games. During which Merrill delivered a strong slash of .296/81/25/96/16 with a .503 SLG, K rate under 17%, an avg EV at 90.4, and a barrel rate of 11.5%. Merrill is also an exceptional baserunner and easily plus in CF. Just check out Merrill’s Baseball Savant rankings from 2024.
Jackson Merrill - 2024 Baseball Savant
Merrill’s best seasons are in front of him in real life and in fantasy baseball. If you’re lucky enough to have Merrill in a dynasty format hold on and enjoy the ride. If you were smart enough to pay up for him in redraft this year (ADP around 26), you should get what you paid for and maybe a bit more. Last comment on Merrill, I love this type of contract extension. These deals are usually smart for all involved.
Hopping to the other Jackson’s for a minute, let’s take a look at Jackson Chourio MLW and Jackson Holliday BAL. Chourio is off to a slow start along with pretty much the entire Brewers team. Starting your season 0 for 5 with 5 K’s has to be a system shock along the lines of a polar plunge. Chourio now has 11 K’s in 23 PA’s, with only 3 hits so far. It’s rough and yet we shouldn’t be concerned. Remember that Chourio had an excellent spring and also had a big 2nd half last season. The good stuff is coming. If you can find an owner that is feeling panicky, pay up and make the deal. Particularly in a dynasty format. Footnote: Chourio launched his 1st home run of the year today.
Jackson Holliday BAL has been a mixed bag so far. On the big plus side his playing time has been solid and that was my biggest concern going into the season. I also failed to pick up on the fact that Holliday had added significant strength to his frame this off-season. It was needed and will help him impact the ball as well as hold up to the rigors of a long MLB season. Dipping into the stats a bit Holliday has a 40% K rate and is riding a .500 BABIP to his .316 BA. Additionally, his avg EV has yet to bump up off of his added size. It’s way to early to take much away from this but I’m not swayed from my position that it may be another year or two until we see Holliday hit another level. I’m sitting on zero shares and feeling OK with that.
Another contract extension announced while I banged away on the keyboard. Kristian Campbell and the Boston Red Sox agreed to an 8 year $60m extension. Campbell is actually almost a year older than Jackson Merrill yet only has 5 big league games under his belt. It became evident late in Spring Training that the Red Sox were committed to Kristian Campbell, so this extension makes a lot of sense. The deal does appear to have two option years worth $19m for 2033 and $21m for 2034. This would bring the total package potential to 10 years and $100m. Less value than Merrill received but also a less proven player. Life altering money regardless. And it sure looks like Campbell will be good, making this a sound investment for the Red Sox.
Revisiting the Kyle Tucker CHC trade for a moment. The Cubs paid up for one year of Tucker and it’s already making a difference. Tucker is riding a 4 game home run streak in which he has 10 hits in 21 PA’s, 4 home runs, 9 runs scored, and 9 RBI. This is a guy that can carry a team for weeks at a time and that’s what the Cubs needed. Tucker was a 1st round pick in Fantasy this year and we should see a solid return. Tucker has 1 stolen base so far, yet that’s the one area that we will likely see a decrease from his 25 and 30 SB seasons. Tucker’s never been particularly fast but his sprint speed is now sitting 25.9, which is in the lower 3rd in baseball.
Kyle Tucker on fire the last 4 games
The Astros came out great in this deal too. Assuming they felt they couldn’t or wouldn’t extend Tucker it’s been impactful to land three starters in the deal. Isaac Paredes HOU is poised for a big season with the Crawford Boxes calling his name, Cam Smith HOU is the real deal (I’ll save you more gushing on Cam for now), and Hayden Wesneski HOU is currently in the rotation.
Another Cub off to a good start is Dansby Swanson CHC. He always feels like a better player than the numbers he actually puts up over the course of the season. At 31yo we pretty much know what we are getting yet hitting 5th now in the Cubs lineup might offer a bit of additional upside. ZIPS DC says .248/85/20/75/14 and that feels somewhere between accurate and a bit low. Either way, solid return for a redraft ADP range of 180-215.
Elly De La Cruz CIN struck out just 22% of the time in spring training and is sitting at 19% through 5 games of the regular season. Really, it’s splitting hairs on Elly but we were hoping for a lower K rate and improvement against LHP. What’s the ceiling for the 23yo phenom if he accomplishes one or both of these? A .350/6/2/8/1 start to the season is impossible to ignore - as was Elly’s loud game on Mar 31 when he went 4 for 5 with 4 runs scored, 2 home runs, 7 RBI, and a stolen base. Complete video game performance for the MLB THE SHOW 25 cover athlete (along with Paul Skenes and Gunnar Henderson).
While Elly gets well deserved headlines don’t sleep on Matt McLain CIN who is healthy and off to a strong start. We were on McLain in draft season and his .300/7/3/5/0 starts supports it. If anything, McLain’s BABIP suggests he should have a few more hits already. Worth noting that McLain is hitting 2nd and in front of Elly right now. That means good pitches to hit and an opportunity to score a ton of runs.
There have been so many great outings from starting pitchers it’s difficult to single just one out. I do want to take a look at Kris Bubic KC and his first start though. Bubic was an afterthought in most drafts and is still available as a free agent in many leagues. What will you get if you grabbed him at the back of a draft or add him with FAAB? Likely 125-135 solid innings with some down time along the way as his innings pitched are monitored.
Bubic was the 40th overall pick in 2018, so there is pedigree here. He logged 56 fairly nondescript starts with the Royals from 2020-2022. Bubic then came out improved in 2023 before going down with TJS. A bullpen return in 2024 was effective over 30.1 IP, including an 11.57 K/9 against just 1.48 BB / 9. Bubic had a solid spring in the SP role so here we are. His first outing was a win against the Brewers with Bubic delivering 6 IP, 8 K’s, 2 BB’s and just 3 hits allowed. He generated 14 whiffs, and interestingly 10 of those off of his fastball.
Kris Bubic’s Mar 31 outing (33 CS + Whiffs)
So, what do we make of the Minnesota Twins pitching so far? They’ve given up 31 runs through the first 5 games. Chris Paddack’s nightmare outing aside, it’s still not been good. Fortunately, the Twins have options waiting with Zebby Mathews and David Festa both already on the 40 man. And beyond that Andrew Morris (not on 40) is lurking. I had an up close look at Zebby and Morris in AA last year. Both impressed but at the time Morris stood out to me even more. It’s a toss up whether Festa or Zebby gets the first shot with the Twins this year. Morris will likely be a 2nd half consideration so approach adding any of the 3 accordingly. Footnote: Paddack is in the last year of a 3 year $12.5m contract. It’s likely not enough owed to keep him around if the poor performances continue. Even for the conservative Twins.
Going into play today the Chicago White Sox were tied for 1st in the AL Central with a 2 and 3 record. No, I’ve not lost it and decided to proclaim the White Sox contenders. They’re not. But they are better than last year and they do have help on the way. I bring them up here just to say they won’t have the worst record in baseball this year. Maybe that distinction will go to the Miami Marlins. Also, there are pieces on the White Sox offense worth owning in Fantasy as well as low cost SP options to consider.
The Atlanta Braves are a legit mess right now. They are 0-6 and have been outscored 26 to 9. In fact, they are the last winless team in MLB. This lineup is too strong for this to be happening and there is more at play than just the on-field performance. Just in the last couple of days free agent signing OF Jurickson Profar ATL was suspended 80 games for PED’s and SP Reynaldo Lopez ATL was placed on the IL and headed for “exploratory” shoulder surgery.
On Lopez, treat him like he’s not coming back in 2025. So if you have him in redraft this is a cut. Exploratory surgery means there is confidence something is wrong in the shoulder. And with Profar, bench him if you have the luxury but if not just move on. That’s half the season he will miss and we don’t know what he will offer upon return.
I had a note to myself to discuss David Bednar PIT and the Pirates bullpen situation. During draft season I loaded up on Dennis Santana PIT due to a lack of confidence in Bednar combined with no idea who else might step up into the role. Well, Bednar was sent to AAA this week and as I’m writing this Dennis Santana just earned the save following another strong Paul Skenes outing. Go ahead, chase Dennis Santana if you need saves. We all chase and overpay for saves just try not to break the bank. It’s a long season and things can change quickly in bullpens like this.
Colton Cowser BAL is out at least 6 weeks due to a fractured thumb from sliding into first base…head first. I don’t get it. You don’t get it either! We all know that sliding into 1st slows you down and dramatically increases injury risk. Yet seemingly every year we have a couple MLB players hurt doing this non-sense. It’s unfortunate for Cowser and also for those of us that invested in him for Fantasy. He destroys RHP and was poised for increased playing time in 2025. Cowser’s an IL stash if you can do it.
James Wood WAS is off to a slow start with a worrisome 10 K’s in 21 PA’s. I’m sold on the player and also really like the lineup context. Given that Dylan Crews WAS has an even worse 10 K’s in 16 PA’s it’s possible that the Nats have just been pitched tough. Or, more likely, the league has data on both that will require adjustments. I’m still buying Wood, and Crews for that matter, anywhere I can within reason. Two more weeks of this K factory could change that position though.
What do we make of the Athletics new home field in Sacramento? The first game played was 18-3 Cubs, game two 7-4 Cubs, and now game three is 5-2 Cubs in the 3rd (so far). While it may be too early to have a clear cut answer it seems apparent that runs will be scored. Similar to what we thought in draft season…fade OAK pitching, target OAK hitters, and stream all hitters when playing at Sutter Health Park.
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