Jacob, Colt, Collier, Lazaro, and Wetherholt
Jacob, Colt, Collier, Lazaro, and Wetherholt
Jul 20, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
Cover image courtesy of Aram Leighton’s Jul 1, 2024 X post.
It’s early Saturday afternoon and MLB has entered the back half of the season. I’ve done my to do list for the day and just sat down to watch some baseball. It’s a full slate of 15 games and I have the Cardinals v Braves on, top of the 1st.
This is an important series for both teams. Each currently qualify for a Wild Card entry, but not comfortably. And both are still in the hunt for their division with the Cards back by 4.5 games and the Braves 8 games. So this should be a really good series with 3 games now in 2 days thanks to Friday nights game getting pushed due to weather.
The biggest game of the day is tonight with the Astros v Mariners. Game 1 went to the Astros as Hunter Brown SP HOU pitched a gem, shutting down the struggling Mariners offense. Today it’s Framber Valdez SP HOU taking on George Kirby SP SEA. I’m a huge fan of Kirby, see a Cy Young in his future, and this will be one of the most important regular season games he has pitched in.
Next up, I’m going to dig into several player and prospect spotlights while I watch the game.
Player Spotlights:
Jacob Wilson SS OAK made his big league debut last night. I love debuts and this is one I have been waiting for - primarily because his offensive profile is so unique. I’ve previously shared I was off of Wilson after he was drafted #6 overall last year, this primarily due to zero evidence he could impact the ball. What I didn’t expect, and likely few did, is just how elite his bat to ball skills are.
Wilson rolled through the minors hitting .401 with a .445 OBP along the way. And with 36 doubles and 8 home runs in just 284 ABs Wilson actually slugged .613 and had an OPS over 1.000. So, I missed this one by a wide mile.
Last night Wilson had the first pitch of the game hit to him at SS and made a strong throw to 1st to get the runner. And then on just the second pitch he sees at the plate he laces a single over SS. Pretty storybook stuff. After that though, the snarky baseball gods took over. Wilson came up limping rounding 3rd base and was pulled from the game with what turned out to be a hamstring issue. He’s going for an MRI today and likely hit’s the IL. Regardless though, I am really interested to see how Wilson develops at the big league level. On a fantasy note I have quite a few shares and even used up 15% of my remaining FAAB to land him in a keeper league. It’s not my normal profile but never underestimate the positive impact of volume work out of a .300+ hitter.
Even after going 0 for his last 8 Colt Keith is hitting .314 since Jun 14. This with a .374 OBP, .590 SLG and an eye-popping 170 wRC+. I’m a fan and loaded up on Keith in redraft this year, plus having some dynasty shares. Still, I’m a bit torn if this is a buy, sell, or hold moment. Keith is a good hitter with an an improving team context. In fact, the Tigers should be a constantly improving offense over the next 2-3 years. But with this current heater Keith is getting a lot of deserved attention and the hype may be exceeding the good player he is. A look at his Statcast page supports that it may be worth listening to offers on Keith right now.
Colt Keith Statcast
I really like Bo Bichette the ballplayer. But, from a fantasy baseball standpoint I started to fade him last year. I then moved all remaining shares this past offseason and put him on my do not draft list for the 2024 season. The reason? I think we saw his career year in 2021 and it may have been aided by park context related to the Jays playing so many games in Buffalo due to covid issues. That created a lot of additional hype layered on top of all that Bichette offered as a well thought of prospect and son of a former 4x All-Star MLBer.
My point is that Bichette is still likely a good ballplayer when healthy. And a productive fantasy asset. But his real value versus his draft cost appeared to have separated a great deal. In the NFBC Bichette was going in the mid-30’s range, which was likely paying ceiling value for a player that had seen his fantasy productivity decrease each year since his peak in 2021. I want to tell you to go buy low on him but given his poor performance this year, his recent calf injury, and then all the questions with team context and trade deadline this may be a situation to just avoid unless it’s a significant buy low in dynasty or keeper formats.
I don’t know if DJ LeMahieu is nearing the end of his career or not. At 36yo and struggling mightily it doesn’t look great. Watching him play he also doesn’t seem to be moving well. At least not right now. But he is signed for 2 more years as part of the 6 year $90m contact with the Yankees in 2021.
I spend a lot of time talking about up and coming players because, well, I love that part of the game. So this is chance for me to discuss a veteran guy who far exceeded any reasonable expectation when he was drafted in 2009 in the 2nd rd out of LSU by the Chicago Cubs. He made his Cubs debut just two years later and was then traded to the Rockies in that off-season along with Tyler Colvin for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers.
LeMahieu is a player not known for power, or speed, or elite defense. And yet here we are in his 14th big league season and he has delivered 30.6 career WAR, is a .290 hitter, made 3 All Star teams, won 4 Gold Gloves, 2 Silver Sluggers, and finished top 15 in the MVP race 3 times.
To put the 2011 LeMahieu trade in perspective Colvin and Stewart combined for 4.2 career WAR while Weathers never reached the big leagues. The Rockies absolutely made out on this deal getting 7 quality years out of LeMahieu. And I think no matter what happens moving forward the Yankees feel like they have gotten their money’s worth out of LeMahieu.
Prospect Spotlight:
Cam Collier 3B CIN hit a long home run in the recent MLB Futures Game and as a result won MVP honors. Collier was drafted 18th overall in 2022 out of high school and he is still only 19yo. Collier’s power is showing up more this year at High A but his walk and strikeout rates are both going in the wrong direction and he is only hitting .232.
Digging into video and stats on Collier I see a lot of raw power that it is starting to show up in games. The swing is a bit long and takes a more power driven path that probably leaves him vulnerable up and possible low and away as well. Physically he has a lot of size for a 19yo and I would think there isn’t much left to project. This leads me to have some concerns about Collier maintaining athleticism.
My summary thought for fantasy is that Collier still has a lot of development left before we have a clearer handle on what his future may or may not be. The power ceiling is high, but will he be able to hit enough to get to it at the higher levels? And will he have a defensive home to support him if he struggles? At the moment, Collier has a profile I find moderately tempting to consider but ultimately will avoid and wait until he is a bit further along.
Lazaro Montes OF SEA recently was bumped up to High A for the Mariners. Still not 20yo Montes clearly had nothing left to learn at A ball. He was hitting .309/46/13/72/1 with a walk rate of 13.9% and a K rate of 19.1%. This and the 149 wRC+ let you know how easily he was outperforming the league.
Out of Cuba, Montes is just 15 games into High A but initial results suggest he has found the pitching much more difficult. Which it is. At High A Montes is currently walking just 7% of the time and his K rate has jumped to almost 33%. High A should be his home the rest of the season and he may even open next season there depending upon his progress.
Checking the video I see Montes stands on top of the plate with his hands up and away from his body. He’s looking to cover the zone while doing damage inside. Listed at 6’3 210 Montes appears much larger and he’s unlikely to ever be confused with a speed threat.
Reading Baseball America’s profile on Montes I learned that he moved to the Dominican Republic as a teenager to train with hitting instructor Aldo Marrero - who trained Yordan Alvarez of the Astros. Unless something changes it looks like Montes will have power similar to Yordan but not the hit tool. He also may have the same defensive limitations Yordan has.
Montes was recently traded in my deepest dynasty league and that’s what got me thinking about him. The return for Montes was a lot less than I expected for a young prospect already on many Top 100 lists. Rotowire for example has Montes #15 overall while Fangraphs has him #9 on just the Mariners prospect ranker. My takeaway here is similar to Collier. Neither player has the hit tool I generally look for and neither has the defensive skills to fall back on. Between Collier and Montes I pretty easily prefer Montes but am content to wait and see how he develops versus looking to add him now.
JJ Wetherholt fell to the Cardinals at #7 overall in this years MLB draft. Wetherholt is a confident player and definitely brings the swag - if you saw him on draft day you know. He played three seasons at West Virginia and put up elite numbers his sophomore year slashing .449/67/16/60/36. His junior year was down due to injury and that may have cost him standing in the draft.
Wetherholt is an infielder that moves really well in the field and on the bases. The Cardinals drafted Wetherholt as a SS, and while he may stick there, it’s not hard to imagine him shifting to 2B or even OF to get to the big leagues sooner. His defense should be solid but it’s the offensive profile that grabs you. Wetherholt hits left-handed and uses both a leg kick and a bit of an uppercut to get to his power - which is primarily pull side. He has excellent hands and this allows him to work with those elements in his swing. Wetherholt may work his at bats looking for pitches that accommodate that pull side power so he can max out damage. It’s an approach being used more often from players like Luke Keaschall of the Twins.
I really like Wetherholt and think the Cardinals got a great value at #7 in a player that probably was top 3-4 in the draft. In deep dynasty format I would be thrilled to add Wetherholt to my team with only the underlying concern of how effectively the Cardinals will develop him. I say this because the Cards track record of successfully getting the most out of their hitting prospects has been iffy for years. Sorry Cards fans!
If you enjoyed this article please consider signing up for FREE email updates from 3-1Count.com. The link is at the bottom of this page. We will send you an email when new articles are published. For your protection, the system will require you to accept the subscription through a confirmation email once you have signed up. No spam, no cost - just baseball!
