Trade Deadline, Soto Trade, Josh Smith, Rooker, Quinn and Seymour
Trade Deadline, Soto Trade, Josh Smith, Rooker, Quinn and Seymour
Jul 17, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
We now have the MLB Draft and All-Star Festivities behind us and now head to the back half of the season. The next two weeks will tell us a great deal about who is committed to the pennant race, who is mostly just riding the wave, and who is focused on next year and beyond. The 2024 MLB trade deadline is Tue Jul 30 at 5p central. This is the last point of the season where a player on a teams 40 man roster can be traded. They can be placed on waivers and claimed after the deadline, but can no longer be traded at that point.
The teams I expect to be most active on the buy side based upon standings and needs are the: Orioles, Mariners, Twins, Red Sox, Royals, Dodgers, Brewers, and the Braves. Other teams may surprise and pull off a big trade, these are just the ones that seem to really line up for an impact move to improve for the stretch.
On the sell side it’s pretty safe to say that the White Sox, Athletics, Angels, Blue Jays, Marlins and Nationals will be the most active. Others may do some selling as well, but these teams are clearly positioned. In fact, the Nationals already opened things up moving Hunter Harvey RP to the Royals for a solid prospect in Cayden Wallace 3B and pick #39 that became Caleb Lomavita C out of California. If it’s an indication of whats to come, then sellers should do quite well again this year.
The MLB schedule picks back up on Friday with 14 games on the slate. Key series to keep an eye on are:
Phillies v Pirates has my attention primarily because I am so curious as to what the Pirates will do over the next two weeks. With a .500 record they are only 1.5 games out of the Wildcard race and they are 7-3 over their last 10 games. If I’m the Pirates and have Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jared Jones (currently on IL) to front my postseason rotation I am adding pieces. They need a significant bat, or two. And adding another strong arm to their solid bullpen wouldn’t hurt. The Pirates have the farm system to get pretty much anything they want, it’s just a matter of how hard they push this year versus next year.
The Cardinals and Braves are two second place teams both currently in a Wild Card slot. The Braves are committed to the postseason and it seems like the Cardinals are still trying to determine what path they are taking rest of season. I expect both to add by the deadline and think it is more likely the Braves make the larger move.
With the Red Sox v Dodgers you have a Boston team that is surprising a bit and is currently in the Wild Card - so they are hungry and playing offense. With the Dodgers you can feel the concern after going 3-7 in their last 10 and now holding a thinner 7 game lead against both the DBacks and the Padres. The Dodgers are loaded, just not without issues and I think they will definitely be active in the trade market.
The last series I will mention is the Astros v Mariners. It’s inter-divisional and the two teams are separated by only 2 games. The Mariners are getting it done with excellent pitching and a pretty woeful offense while the Astros are in there despite a load of key pitching injuries.
Bottom line, the next 7 - 10 days will determine a great deal when it comes to the pennant races and therefore what trades will go down. I absolutely love this time of year - you never know what might happen as the trade deadline approaches!
Player Spotlight:
How important has Josh Smith 3B/SS been to the Texas Rangers? During a season that stars like Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Adolis Garcia have struggled and Josh Jung has only 19 plate appearances the Rangers have had Josh Smith step up to the tune of .293/45/10/40/5. This is with a .392 OBP a 145 wRC+ and 3.2 WAR.
Smith was the 67th overall pick in 2019 out of LSU. I has some interest in his profile at the time but like so many others I struggled to see what role he might have defensively and also was unsure if he would be able to impact the ball at the big league level. Interestingly, those questions still apply when you look at his underlying metrics on Statcast. But what you do have appears to be a really smart player that understands his abilities and works his at bats to get the most out of his performance. There’s no denying the results and I’m curious to see what role Smith takes on when Josh Jung 3B returns. Smith has pro reps at 2B, SS, 3B and LF. So it’s likely he moves into a super-utility role that has him starting 4-5 games per week.
Josh Smith 2024 Statcast
Brent Rooker OF OAK is a name that we should see moved at the deadline and he will likely bring a haul back to the Athletics. Rooker makes no bones about it, he goes up to the plate trying to do damage - and he has been doing just that. Rooker’s Statcast page shows elite rankings in all the places that make baseballs go really far really fast. He’s currently sitting in the 90th percentile or higher in average EV, barrels, hard hit, and sweet spot. Rooker was good last year, but has now taken it too a new level.
Rooker Smash (Hulk voice)
To be clear, Rooker is not a strong defender (at all) so this will influence where he lands. Most of his playing time this year has been at DH. So a team like the Atlanta Braves would be less likely to deal for Rooker given they already have a similar player in Marcell Ozuna. But how about the Pirates, Cardinals, Mariners, or Brewers?
I’ve been wanting to write about the Nationals Juan Soto haul for a while and this feels like the right point of the season to do so. We are talking about the first big Juan Soto trade here, the one with the Padres in 2022. The Nationals received C.J. Abrams SS, James Wood OF, MacKenzie Gore LHP, Robert Hassell III OF, and Jarlin Susana RHP.
Abrams has already become an All-Star and has far exceeded his early power predictions with 18 home runs last year and 15 already this season. James Wood was just recently called up to the Nationals and arrived as a fairly consensus number one prospect in baseball. Wood destroyed AAA this year and looks really comfortable at the big league level. My expectation is that we are looking at a multi-year All-Star on the low end and a likely MVP candidate on the higher end. MacKenzie Gore is still only 25 years old and has already thrown over 230 innings for the Nationals. Even with a recent rough patch Gore is sitting on a 4.01 ERA this year and is striking out 10.58 hitters per 9.
With Robert Hassell III and Jarlin Susana the Nats have two pedigree minor leaguers that with any contribution will make the Soto trade return that much stronger. This trade, in just two years, has given the Nationals their top starting pitcher, an All-Star shortstop, and their left fielder for the next 7-10 years. Just an incredible haul from any perspective and one that should have the Nationals in the post-season race for the next 5-7 years.
Prospect Spotlight:
News just came out that Zebby Mathews SP MIN has been promoted from AA to AAA. We’ve discussed Zebby here previously and this move suggests the Twins are positioning him either for a late season promotion to Minnesota or to be close by in the event of injury or need of a spot start at the Major League level. Zebby is an under-ranked prospect that has greatly out-pitched expectations for an 8th rd pick in 2022.
Watching the Futures Game I really enjoyed getting another look at Quinn Mathews SP STL. I’ve liked his profile since the draft and have followed him closely - rostering him in several deeper fantasy leagues. Watching Mathews pitch at the Futures Game I had this feeling that he is what Reid Detmers SP LAA should be or should have been. Mathews works quick, has deception, and clearly knows how to pitch. He’s currently at AA, his 3rd level of the season, where he is sitting on a combined 2.22 ERA over 85 IP and has an other worldly 120 strikeouts against only 25 walks. Workload is a question here, as is building a players confidence, but I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility for the Cardinals to bring him up before the season is over. A rotation that includes Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Andre Pallante doesn’t scream post-season success.
I’m going to dig a bit deeper for our next name. Ian Seymour SP TAM was a late 2nd rd pick in 2020 out of Virginia. He threw just 55 innings in 2021 and only 16 in 2022 due to injury. 2023 saw just 40 innings so this year has been his first extended action since being drafted. Seymour has spent the season at AA, pitched 91 innings and delivered a 2.36 ERA while striking out 99 against only 22 walks. Tampa is one of the best at developing pitchers and Seymour has a shot at seeing big league action in 2025. So keep his name on your hit list and monitor both his health and progress.
Taking a look ahead at the Arkansas Travelers August schedule they have 16 home games during the month. Hosting Midland (OAK), Tulsa (LAD), and Northwest Arkansas (KC). Some of the names I am looking forward to see play in person are Gunnar Hoglund SP OAK, Daniel Susac C OAK, Henry Bolte OF OAK, Dalton Rushing C LAD, Alex Freeland SS LAD, Gavin Cross OF KC, Javier Vaz OF KC, and Carter Jensen C KC (just promoted).
A couple other names from OAK, LAD, and KC that could see promotions to AA over the next few weeks include Ben Kudrna SP KC, Frank Mozzicato SP KC, and Will Simpson 1B OAK.
I should have video of many of these players as they come through Dickey-Stephens Park and will also write about them here and on X.
If you enjoyed this article please consider signing up for FREE email updates from 3-1Count.com. The link is at the bottom of this page. We will send you an email when new articles are published. For your protection, the system will require you to accept the subscription through a confirmation email once you have signed up. No spam, no cost - just baseball!
