Mining The MLB Leaderboard - Hitters
Apr 16, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Mining the MLB Leaderboard - Hitters
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We’ve already reached the (roughly) 10% mark into the 2025 season. A good time to take a peek at the leaderboards and see who is standing out. And, accordingly, identify if there is something actionable from a Fantasy Baseball perspective. Note that all stats referenced are though games played Apr 15, 2025.
Runs Scored
Shohei Ohtani LAD scored 134 runs last year and is already sitting atop MLB this year with 20. Meanwhile, Kyle Tucker CHC is paying early dividends for the Cubs with 19 runs scored. But did you expect to see Brice Turang MLW or Jung Hoo Lee SF hovering nearby with 17? Another player to keep an eye on is Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC who has 14 runs scored despite a lowly .313 OBP. PCA hits the bases with his hair on fire, all-out all the time.
Turang and Lee both stand out as players that may be taking a step forward this year. Turang needs to cut his strikeouts and show more patience at the plate yet with his elite speed you’re looking at two categories of significant impact in RS and SB. Lee lights up his Baseball Savant page and may be one of this years breakout players. After last years injury plagued season it’s easy to forget that Lee never hit below .318 in his 7 seasons in the KBO. This came with OBP’s ranging from .386 to .438. Lee is still just 26 years old and finds himself hitting 3rd for the San Francisco Giants and is already piling up stats at .322/16/3/11/3…if you can find someone willing to sell Lee he might turn out to be worth even a buy high price.
Home Runs
It’s been the Tyler Soderstrom ATH show so far in Sacremento. The A’s young slugger has popped an MLB best 8 home runs to go along with a .328 BA, .403 OBP, and 1.137 OPS. Is it real? I’m buying it and so are advanced metrics. We talked about Soderstrom quite a bit during draft season and even then he was a target for us, particularly given how low his cost was. Soderstrom’s 2024 gave us a peek into what could be there. That combined with the home ballpark change and the A’s lineup improving screamed upside. So here we are and acquisition costs have likely skyrocketed. Atm, it’s probably enjoy the ride if you have him and watch for a pullback to acquire - particularly in dynasty formats.
Corbin Carroll ARI smacked his 6th home run last night. It seems surprising, but maybe it shouldn’t. Carroll did hit 17 long balls in the 2nd half last year (after just 5 in the 1st half). It’s increasingly clear that Carroll wasn’t fully healthy pre All-Star break 2024. Carroll’s bat speed has jumped from 73.7 in 2024 to 75.2 in 2025 (91st percentile). And his Savant page lights up red supporting what is happening. The steals are coming as is a 30/30 season and a top 5 MVP finish.
Corbin Carroll Baseball Savant 2025
I’m not buying that Tommy Edman LAD (6 home runs) has become a slugger, while also recognizing that he is a noticeably improved hitter. Edman’s ISO at .301 is completely out of whack with his career and is unsustainable. A return to the .180 range is much more likely and still solid for the profile. Do keep in mind that Edman is a drain on OBP formats and that hasn’t changed as he sits at .308. If you drafted Edman you are enjoying early profit, just avoid chasing the player at this point.
RBI
Wilmer Flores SF leads MLB in RBI with 21 in just 17 games played?!? He is, and it won’t last. I mean, it won’t…right? Kudo’s if you are riding the Flores wave, just don’t forget to hop off when things cool down.
Looking past the usual RBI leaders take note of Cedric Mullins BAL who looks like his prime self in what is now a walk year for him. Mullins has 17 RBI to go along with 4 home runs, 3 steals and 10 walks against just 11 K’s. The Orioles need a strong season from Mullins and his 2025 Savant page looks a lot like it did in 2021. Why point out 2021? Well, that’s a career season for Mullins who delivered a .291/91/30/59/30 slash.
Jackson Chourio MLW is tied for 6th in RBI with 17. This goes along with a .275 BA, 5 HR, 15 RS, and 2 steals. I’m a fan and a believer, but let’s not overlook the 1 walk against 20 strikeouts in 80 AB’s. It’s something to monitor, particularly in OBP formats.
Steals
Oneil Cruz PIT is actually off to a pretty rough start hitting just .200 with 2 HR, 5 RBI, and 7 RS. He is, however, leading MLB with 8 steals so far. Cruz is the main threat in a weak Pirates lineup and is getting pitched accordingly. Expect the running to continue and at some point a lift in other categories but quite possibly not at the level expected coming into 2025.
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC and Jake Mangum TAM are tied for 2nd with 7 steals apiece. PCA is by the far the better player to roster between the two, his playing time is locked in while Mangum will platoon and offers little help in most other categories.
And then there is Manny Machado SD hiding out on the steals leaderboard? Machado’s tied for 4th with the speedsters the likes of Jarren Duran, Xavier Edwards, and Nico Hoerner. Yet Machado is actually SLOW with a sprint speed in the 19th percentile. But he is a smart baserunner (80th percentile) and now has 105 career bags. Don’t expect Machado’s pace of theft to keep up, just enjoy what comes and it will likely be another 6-8 steals this year.
BB’s
The usually players are hanging around the top of the walks list. This includes Marcell Ozuna, Kyle Tucker, Matt Chapman, Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto and company. Instead of discussing this group let’s look at the names that are a bit of a surprise.
JP Crawford SEA has 14 BB’s against 13 K’s and it seems indicative of virtually nothing. He’s hitting .178 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 8 RS, and 1 SB. Full avoid as the 2023 Crawford appears to be a huge career anomaly.
Wilyer Abreu BOS on the other hand looks like a legit breakout. I fell for Abreu’s swing when he first came up and have stayed on his profile for the promise it seemed to have. Entering play today Abreu has a .310/13/3/12/2 slash. It’s absolutely supported by the eye test and by advanced metrics where Abreu has a deep red Savant page. This performance, combined with his fairly elite defense, seem to have eased previous platoon concerns. Still just 25yo Abreu is a strong target for dynasty leagues.
Wilyer Abreu Baseball Savant 2025
Lars Nootbaar STL was on our target list for draft season. This was largely based upon a combination of strong advanced metrics in 2024 and the hope he stays healthy for a full season. So far Noot is paying nice dividends if you made the relatively low investment in him. He’s sporting a .410 OBP thanks to 13 BB’s against just 12 K’s. Noot’s also chipped in a couple of homers and steals. Batting at the top of the Cardinals lineup Nootbaar should see significant volume and stack counting numbers.
Colt Keith DET is piling up walks in the early going but little else. Most worrisome is a huge drop in EV and launch angle. Keith is hitting balls into the ground at an alarming rate and yet still has an anemic EV of just 80.9mph. Add in the offense suppressing home ballpark context you realize that Keith might be in line for an early demotion if not for his contract status. Regardless, he is a cut in many formats and a bench in the remainder until significant improvement is seen.
K’s
Maybe strikeouts is the buyer beware category. Michael Toglia COL sits on top with 29 K’s and his season has been nightmarish so far. Which, really shouldn’t be a surprise given his 34% career K rate. Toglia’s Savant page shows across the board declines year to year and could be forecasting a demotion as he has an option remaining.
Rafael Devers BOS is tied for 2nd with 28 K’s. Devers had a brutal start to the season and pretty clearly wasn’t healthy…or happy. Things have at least picked up a bit. Devers was a prominent fade during draft season as the high draft cost combined with enough question marks to suggest it was an overpay. If you have him here you probably ride the profile and hope the team context adds lift. Recommend avoiding adding Devers unless someone is very motivated to move him.
Tied with Devers in K’s is a surprise in Riley Greene DET. He came into 2025 with a career K rate near 28% so this has been a challenge area before, yet his current rate of 42% is much more alarming. There’s a lot to like about Greene but his home ballpark and draft cost had him in the fade category to begin with. And now the K issue combines with an EV drop of 2 mph and an early drop in barrels. I expect Greene to right himself and deliver close to his 2024 numbers of .262/82/24/74/4. Which is OK, just offering no upside to investment.
OBP
There’s no surprise seeing Aaron Judge NYY sitting on top of the OBP leaderboard, even with an otherworldly .494. But did you expect to see Jonathan Aranda TAM 2nd at .481? I absolutely did not and that includes not seeing Aranda getting so much playing time early on. Aranda’s OBP is all about the batting average sitting at .413…and that has largely been driven by an unsustainable .471 BABIP and .348 ISO. Aranda is an interesting hitter yet this is a pretty clear sell high moment.
Will Smith LAD is reminding everyone he’s a really good hitter as hit sits on a .475 OBP with a really nice slash of .367/6/2/12/1. Shohei’s arrival stripped Smith of the extra AB’s at DH and maybe we forgot he still puts up .260/75/20/75 most years.
Another name off to a hot start you might not expect to have an OBP above .400 is Brendan Donovan STL. He has enjoyed strong advanced metrics for years with a career .286 BA and .366 OBP. Keep an eye on Donovan’s EV and Barrel rates this year…both are sitting at career highs and will further elevate his profile if it continues.
OPS
OPS Leaderboard Through Apr 15, 2025
Coming into play today (April 16) there are 14 players with an OPS above 1.000. We know that’s coming down as just 2 finished above in 2024 and only 3 in 2023. Aranda actually leads the way at 1.242 and has a near zero chance to finish even above .900. Next is Judge at 1.224, Pete Alonso 1.195, Carroll 1.158, Soderstrom 1.137, and Fernando Tatis Jr. 1.073.
Let’s drop down just a bit and look at Spencer Torkelson DET sitting at 1.003. Tork has been a flawed hitter with significant power so far in his career. I’m not sure that has necessarily changed but he has made adjustments and is getting to the power regularly so far in 2025. It’s driving a jump in EV and barrel rate, both to career highs. Keep an eye on the strikeouts as Tork is also carrying a career high 30.7% K rate.
James Wood WAS is heating up and now has 6 home runs to go along with 3 steals and a .946 OBP. Still just 22yo Wood’s opposite field power is a thing to behold. We are just seeing the beginning of what Wood has to offer and his 94mph EV and 24.4% barrel rate scream elite power hitter incoming. The K rate at 28% is high yet is at least balanced with a 15% BB rate.
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