MLB Memorial Day, Acuna, JRod…and Keaschall
MLB Memorial Day, Acuna, JRod…and Keaschall
May 27, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
We have an 11 game MLB slate this Memorial Day. Featuring divisional match-ups between the Red Sox / Orioles, Royals / Twins, Cubs / Brewers, Astros / Mariners, and more. Weekday afternoon baseball is always a treat and I’m here for it. I’m also taking some time this morning to look back over the weekend and forward for the week to come.
All sports feeds lit up yesterday with the news of Ronald Acuna Jr. sustaining a torn ACL in his left leg. This is not the same knee that knocked him out for half of 2021. So after this upcoming surgery Acuna will have had major surgery on both knees. He will be out for all of 2024 and reports suggest he could be ready for 2025 spring training. This post from Jesse Morse, MD does a good job of laying it out. And if you are on X Dr. Morse is an interesting guy to follow.
So, with Acuna out what do the Braves do? As a starting point losing your reigning MVP and best hitter while also having already lost your best pitcher (Strider) is rough. Just keep in mind that this is still a really good team and you won’t find Alex Anthopoulos (AA) panicking. He’s the best in the biz and continues to prove it. For now the Braves called up JP Martinez from AAA. He’s 28yo, runs well, and plays solid enough D in the outfield. He also strikes out 25%+ of the time and lacks pop. So this move is about OF depth while Adam Duval and Jarred Kelenic both see increased playing time.
You can also bet that AA will be looking for an acquisition. The Orioles could match up well given their envious glut of OF talent with players like Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Kyle Stowers, Anthony Santander and possibly even Heston Kjerstad available. Other possibilities could include Tommy Pham from the White Sox, someone from the A’s mix of OF’s, or Starling Marte of the Mets. My point here is that AA will do what is needed to strengthen the team. He always does.
As far as the Braves lineup goes I expect some combination of Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris, and possibly others to slot into the leadoff spot Harris has had a really poor May though, doesn’t always get the most out of his AB’s, and draws few walks. Not exactly an ideal profile for leadoff.
Moving on, I took a look at run differentials from the current teams leading their divisions or lined up for Wild Card spots if the season were to end today. In the American League the division leaders (with run diff) are Cleveland (+73), New York (+92), and Seattle (-7). And the AL Wild Cards are Baltimore (+61), Kansas City (+79), and Minnesota (+4). Boston (+32) is just 1.5 games back in the Wild Card. I think the run differentials represent the AL team strength pretty accurately with New York, KC, Cleveland and Baltimore up top.
In the National League the division leaders are Philadelphia (+93), Los Angeles (+69), and Milwaukee (+45). Wild Cards are Atlanta (+47), Chicago (-3), and San Diego (+8). A similar take here with high confidence Philly, LAD, Milwaukee and Atlanta make the post-season. Yes, Atlanta. It feels very wide open after that.
Looking at the standings I’m wondering how many people have noticed that the Guardians have won 9 straight? And the Cardinals have won 5 straight after their horrendous start?!? One more, the Dodgers have…wait for it…lost 5 straight after the Reds swept them this weekend. I know, and I agree, the Dodgers will win the NL West. But it does go to show what can happen over a short sample and what could and does happen in post-season play.
Here’s a peak under the hood at a few players that have caught my attention recently:
Reese Olson (DET) is pitching great and not getting near enough attention. Olson is currently 6th in MLB ERA at 1.92. Over 56 1/3 innings he has given up only 40 hits and struck out 47. He also has 5 quality starts so far. And Olson has also only given up one HR on the year. Yet somehow he didn’t get his first win until this weekend, leaving his record at 1-5 despite the strong start to his season.
Statcast, underlying data, and a quietly solid 2023 suggest that Olson should continue to pitch well - although likely not this well. From a fantasy standpoint he could still be an undervalued asset and one to target in trade.
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) had one of his best games of the year yesterday. Putting up 3 hits, a HR, 2 RS, 4 RBI and 2 steals. The Mariners offense has struggled mightily this year and easily lead MLB in strikeouts averaging more than 10 per game. They must have JRod clicking to win the AL West and this is reflected in the run differentials we looked at earlier. The Mariners are getting it done with pitching but it will be a struggle if the hitting doesn’t come around.
JRod’s May has been better than his Mar/Apr and probably most encouraging is his strikeouts have dropped significantly over the last month. The Mariners may need to deal in order to add offense to their lineup and they certainly have the pitching and farm depth to do so.
Brent Rooker (OAK) is a guy that knows how to go on a heater and he has been on one throughout May hitting .349 with 6 homers, and 21 RBI. Rooker is actually 9th in MLB in OPS at .933 ahead of mega stars like Bobby Witt Jr. and Bryce Harper. Rooker is a trade target as he is 29yo and the A’s aren’t yet realistically competing. He’s also affordable at $750k this year and hitting his first year of arbitration in 2025. The Braves and other competing teams will be calling.
Looking a bit further down the OPS leaderboard we find Wilyer Abreu sitting 19th at .859. Abreu was an offseason target of mine in fantasy and I was able to trade for him in both of my deep dynasty leagues. I love the swing and felt he would work his way into a FT role or at least close to it. Currently Abreu is a strong side platoon producing a .302 BA against RHP. He’s walking almost 11% of the time, with an overall OBP of .359. His wRC+ is 137, he hits the ball hard at 90.6 avg EV, and is barreling the ball over 12% of the time. These are high end markers and then toss in 7 steals so far. Atm I would target Abreu heavily in daily lineup leagues and dynasty formats. He loses a bit of value unfortunately in weekly lineups and redraft due to lost AB’s from platooning.
My prospect spotlight today is on Luke Keaschall, a utility type defender in the Twins organization. Keaschall was a 2nd rd pick in the 2023 draft, going 49th overall and came out of Arizona State. He was a 3 year starter for the Sun Devils, with some power beginning to show up his sophomore year and then arriving more fully his junior year - driving his draft stock up. Keaschall also showed well in wood bat summer leagues during his college time.
Currently Keaschall is at high A for Minnesota and clamoring for a promotion to AA. Keaschall promotion announcement literrally came across while I was writing this article. Love seeing performance rewarded!
Keaschall is walking more than he is striking out, hitting .335, slugging .544, and has a wRC+ of 179. He’s also scored 37 runs, driven in 21 and stolen 14 bases while being caught only once. The lack of a clear defensive home creates some questions marks for Keaschall path to the big leagues but the player and the bat are speaking loudly. He’s a total gamer type and just keeps hitting everywhere he goes.
Looking at the week ahead for me we have the Amarillo Sod Poodles (AA for ARI) coming in for a series against the Arkansas Travelers. This starts tomorrow and I hope to catch quite a few of the games in person. In doing so I will post video on X and likely write a recap or two on key prospects playing in the series. Ivan Melendez and Kristian Robinson being the top two on the visiting Sod Poodles roster.
I hope everyone has a great start to their summer - and that you have plans to visit a ballpark soon!
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