Bo, Maikel, James Wood, Jonny Farmelo and More
Bo, Maikel, James Wood, Jonny Farmelo and More
May 25, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
The last week has been full of travel for us and as a result I did not get to a weekend rundown in time. Instead I’ll offer thoughts on some of the MLB and MILB players that have caught my attention over the last 5 days. Let’s go:
Bo Bichette’s season has not been close to his career standards - and the Blue Jays have felt it. Particularly combined with other roster issues in Toronto. Bichette set a high bar for himself in 2021 in a similar way to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s performance. A career year for both and driven by strong home splits that included a meaningful number of games in Buffalo at their AAA ballpark. This was due to Canadian covid restrictions.
I don’t think Bichette is the 2021 player we saw, but he is also not the 2024 player seen so far. His barrels are down in 2024 but he is still hitting the ball very hard at a 90.1EV. Additionally, his BABIP at .280 is over 60 points below his career average. Suggesting he has been unlucky. And while he still doesn’t walk alot his K rate is at a career low and very nice 14.8%.
So, Bichette is hitting the ball hard, not striking out much, getting unlucky and now he’s also riding an 11 for 20 streak going into play Saturday. My takeaway is Bichette is still some version of what we saw in 2022 and 2023, but it’s unlikely we see the monster 2021 season again. He’s a buy low candidate for me. And if you can find someone selling on a discount it should be a fairly low risk gamble.
Continuing the Blue Jays conversation just a bit further. They are 4 games under .500 with a -34 run differential in the strong AL East. That equates to 11.5 games back in the division and 4 back in the Wild Card. It’s a tough spot and could lead to early trading for the Jays with a number of players that would surely draw significant interest. They also have infielder Orelvis Martinez at AAA with little else to prove there. Fangraphs has Martinez as the Jays #2 prospect and #70 overall in MLB.
The Royals are a good team. Right now. And I believe they will 100% be a factor in the division all season. One of the less heralded reasons is Maikel Garcia who is manning 3B this year while also able to play middle infield. His Statcast page is deep red (that’s what we want) and includes 82nd percentile EV, strong plate skills, and 90th percentile range in the field. A bit conservative 162 game projection has Garcia delivering a .266/93/15/96/39 line. He went 203rd overall in NFBC drafts this year and is going to help a lot of fantasy teams cash this year. That 162 game PJ would be a tremendous return on your draft capital. I don’t expect you can sneak him into a deal for redraft leagues but I would definitely target Garcia in dynasty. It’s real and the Royals offense should be strong for years to come.
Starling Marte is another below the radar player delivering outsized returns. He went #211 overall in NFBC right next to Tyler O’Neill and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who have also out delivered their draft spot. Marte is currently sitting at .260/6/26/19/8 stat line. He’s also hitting the ball harder than any point of his career despite being in his age 35 season. While Marte is capable of keeping this up the words of caution are his injury history, his age, and the fact that there is a growing possibility he get’s traded. And if he is dealt, it may not be for a full time role. I love what he’s doing this year, but Marte would not be an acquisition target for me. In fact, I would look to move him in any format that allows trades.
I’ve been waiting a week or so to offer an update on one of my preseason favorites in Colt Keith. In fact, Keith is my only 100% share player in the NFBC this year. You can read more about that here:
https://www.3-1count.com/blog/691lec38tot0517ctg5pvpgg1h2wyd
Keith struggled through the early part of the season and the Tigers stuck with him. Likely in part to the big contract he received in spring training but also because the eye test and underlying metrics suggested he was due for a heater. And he’s done just that hitting .519 over the last 8 games including launching his 1st big league homer. I think Keith is who we saw at AAA last year. A player limited on defense that can deliver a .280/80/20/90/3 stat line. With 2B and 3B eligibility anything close to that would be a heckuva return for a guy drafted close to 300th overall this year. And you should 100% consider targeting him in dynasty if you can.
Going the other direction I don’t know what the Washington Nationals are doing giving Joey Gallo at bats. He can still get to a barrel and he hit’s the ball harder than average - but the extreme fly ball / strikeout profile is only getting worse. He is now hitting 61% flies on balls in play while also striking out a career worst and mind blowing 46.2%. This is a guy who hasn’t hit over .200 since 2019 and even with walking 14% of the time his OBP sits at .265 for 2024.
I still believe it’s time for uber prospect James Wood to get the call. But the Nationals seem determined to keep him at AAA despite his outstanding 174 wRC+ and walking almost as much as he strikes out. Wood sure looks ready from any viewpoint I can find. With regards to Gallo, it may be Lane Thomas returning that presses the issue first. And Thomas appears due back this upcoming week.
Another prospect to keep your eye on is Jonny Farmelo who is currently playing for the Modesto Nuts at Single A. Farmelo was a first round pick for the Mariners last year, going 29th overall. I loved the swing and athleticism he showed at the MLB combine and subsequently drafted him in every FYPD I had. He was a key target for me. Supporting this I have a ton of respect for Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs. And Fangraphs has Farmelo as the 89th overall prospect in baseball despite being just 19 years old. I also heard scout buzz at the AFL last year regarding both Colt Emerson and Jonny Farmelo for the Mariners. I’m in for deeper dynasty and think you should be too.
I did a player comparison on X this week that I want to update and look at again. The point of this was to look at 3 underperforming OF’s that went top 30ish in drafts (including 2 that were top 5 on avg) and compare them to at least one outperforming OF that went late in drafts. We are deep enough into the season, approaching a 1/3 of the way, for this to matter.
So here’s the updated look at Julio Rodriguez, Corbin Carroll, Michael Harris II, and Brenton Doyle.
Who would you rather have ROS?
I targeted each of these players during my drafts. I felt like JRod and Carroll were great picks around #5 and used that approach to manage my draft preference orders in the NFBC. And Harris felt like a high floor with upside ceiling when I could grab him 35-45 range. Doyle was a late round target for me going around #400 on average. I ended up with 5 Doyle shares out of my 10 NFBC draft and holds. This is the kind of performance that will show up on a lot of winning teams come season end.
In hind sight I would fade Carroll pretty hard due to the lingering shoulder questions. I would have still gone after JRod just as hard. And probably Money Mike too, but top 40 does feel stretchy. And Doyle, I would have 100% shares based on playing time and athleticism alone.
I’ve been playing fantasy baseball for 35 years if you can believe it. Something I learned early on is that you really can’t win your league during the early rounds of the draft but you can lose it. That’s why I lean conservative and towards hitters for at least the first 4-5 rounds and then take high ceiling high variance players later. Each year draft considerations change, like the current impact of arm injuries. This risk tolerance approach for early rounds has the ability to keep you in consideration for 1st - 4th place in most leagues most years.
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