Royce, Shota, Riley, Crews, Morris, and Brooks Lee
Royce, Shota, Riley, Crews, Morris, and Brooks Lee
Jun 21, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
MLB matchups this weekend aren’t as enticing as they have been in recent weeks. Don’t get me wrong, there are lots of storylines to watch. But in the form of key series there’s really just one that stands out.
The Atlanta Braves are in New York to take on the Yankees. Game 1 is tonight and is not only a great mound match up in Chris Sale (9-2 2.98 era) v Carlos Rodon (9-3 3.28 era) - but it will also be broadcast on Apple TV+. In the Big Apple. So this has to be good!
The camera and stat work during the Apple TV+ games is fantastic. This weekend the Braves are trying to make up ground on the Phillies in the NL East while the Yankees are trying to hold off the relentless Orioles in the AL East. Both teams need a series win.
The Braves come in having won 6 of 10 and 3 straight. While the Yankees just dropped the last two to Baltimore and are 5-5 in their last 10. The Yankees do have the better record and have been the better team so far this year. That said, the Braves seem to be heating up with the summer temps and may finally have their elite offense rolling again. And yes, it’s still elite - even without reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr..
I’ll watch pieces of other games, certainly catch some Orioles at bats as well as checking in on different starting pitchers. This is where the MLB Big Inning feature comes in handy as they 4 box the screen and slide you around from game to game. Still, most of my MLB time this weekend will be the Braves v Yankees.
Moving on to Player Spotlights:
I’ll start with Shota Imanaga CHC because the Mets just crushed him this afternoon. Imanaga is out of the game after giving up 10 earned over 3 innings. This with 11 hits allowed and 1 walk. If you’re a Cub fan this was a rough game. If you play fantasy baseball and had Imanaga in your lineup you really just want to cry a little. Imanaga still has strong stats for the year but we need to pay attention to the 22 earned runs allowed over 25.1 IP since May 29. Imanaga’s fastball has slipped a bit and sat around 90 mph today. That could be fatigue, injury, or just situational. It’s also possible he is tipping his pitches but I have not seen reports supporting this. Regardless, we can’t continue to just blindly start him. Proceed with caution.
Jake Cronenworth SD is sitting at 47 RBI and pacing for 100+ on the season. He has to be among the the quietest run producers in MLB this year. For comparison, Cronenworth drove in 48 runs all of last year and that covered 522 PA’s. It’s a huge difference driven by an increase in EV, barrels and power. Cronenworth has also predominately hit 3rd and 4th this year vs. 5th and 6th last year.
With a tragic 20-56 record it’s hard to spot any positives going on with the Chicago White Sox. But I’m going to do just that. The top of the White Sox rotation is legit good. Garrett Crochet has been amazing at 6-6 3.25 ERA and 12.59 K/9. Underlying data suggests he’s actually out pitched his numbers. And then there’s Erick Fedde at 5-1 and a 3.09 ERA. Both Crochet and Fedde have pitched close to 90 innings as well. And now rookie Jonathan Cannon has arrived with a 3.34 ERA over his first 31.1 big league innings. Including stellar performances in his last two games (HOU and SEA).
There’s plenty of trade buzz around Crochet and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Fedde is traded. So this may not last for the Sox. But at least for now they have a bright spot to feel good about. And if one or both of these guys are traded the return should be a strong boost to the teams rebuild efforts.
Royce Lewis is legit. We are definitely not talking about a pop up type guy that will fade. While I’m not suggesting he can hold his current 162 game pace of .319/105/50/133/11 I am saying if healthy this is a player that can win MVP awards.
Lewis is a former 1st overall draft pick in 2017 - out of high school in California. Like most players his development was not a straight line and he had to work his way through the minors facing injury and covid delays along the way.
I had an extended look at Lewis during the 2019 Arizona Fall League where he won the MVP award. His athleticism was obvious and even then he was one of those electric players that just grabs your attention. The one thing that stood out to me was how pronounced his leg kick was. I had concern with the impact it would have on consistency at the plate for Lewis. It’s just really hard to have that much movement in a swing and still keep your head stable enough to make consistently solid contact. It also reduces ability to make in-swing adjustments to pitches.
Fast forward to now and Lewis has not only added significant strength but he has also turned that leg kick into more of a pronounced toe tap. And I suspect this was a key development point for him.
My fantasy baseball take on Royce Lewis is try to acquire him anywhere you can. Whether it’s a redraft, keeper, or dynasty format. Pay the acquisition cost if you can and hope he stays healthy. Outside of an injury the only other thing to keep an eye on is whether the Twins lineup can offer Lewis enough protection to avoid him drawing 2 to 3 walks per game. He’s that guy. The one other teams are now determined not to let beat them.
Hey, Austin Riley is finally heating up. And it’s no coincidence that the Braves have played much better during the same stretch. Over Riley’s last 6 games he is hitting .526 with 3 homers, 7 runs scored, and 8 RBI. There might still be a buy low-ish opportunity in fantasy but the price is climbing.
If you’ve ever seen MLB’s positional rankers you know they are notoriously awful. A recent one featured the top 10 starting pitchers and the major league ERA leader Reynaldo Lopez wasn’t even on the list. All Lopez has done is throw 8 quality starts over his 13 games while posting a ridiculous 1.57 ERA. In fact, Lopez has allowed 3 earned runs in just two starts and has not had a game yet where he allowed 4 or more earned. Talk about giving your team a chance to win every single time you take the mound. Lopez primarily works with a four seamer, a slider and a curve. All plus pitches. He does occasionally mix in a change to lefties. Underlying metrics suggest Lopez stats are better than they should be but also support that he is pitching very well.
Prospect Spotlight:
Last night I was able to catch Andrew Morris on the mound for the Wichita Wind Surge when they faced the Arkansas Travelers. Morris was a 4th rd pick for the Minnesota Twins in 2022 - going 114th overall. He pitched for Mesa State for 3 years and then transferred to Texas Tech his senior year where he started 15 games, posting solid yet not remarkable numbers.
Recently promoted to AA Morris is still just 22yo. He’s risen steadily pitching at A and High A last year and then High A and now AA this year. Morris has an impressive combined MILB ERA of 2.47 covering 149.1 IP. He’s logged 144 strikeouts against just 31 walks. That’s approaching a 5 to 1 ratio and that command is an important part of his game.
So, what did I see? Morris is a confident pitcher and uses a deceptive delivery to get more out of his arsenal. I have the video below and you can see his delivery is over the top and a bit cross bodied. I also noticed he tends to operate from the 1st base side of the rubber and that his front leg makes a move towards 3rd during delivery. All of this seemed to challenge the hitters ability to lock in on his release point.
Morris cruised through the 1st inning, getting Ben Williamson, Cole Young, and Harry Ford out on just 14 pitches. This included striking out Williamson and Young. Morris had a high stress inning in the 3rd. Part of this was driven by an 11 pitch walk of Ben Williamson, who just continues to wear pitchers out seeing so many pitches each at bat. Morris did work out of a bases loaded 1 out jam in the 3rd. The pitch volume did take it’s toll though and Morris was out of the game after 4 innings. Giving up only one run and keeping his team in the game.
My fantasy take on Andrew Morris is he’s a low risk option for deeper dynasty formats. Acquisition cost should be low and I was able to pick him up with FAAB in one of my leagues recently. When it comes to lesser known, kind of pop up arm types I tend to lean towards ones that have either unlocked an elite pitch, have added velo, or maybe my favorite - ones that have elite command. And that’s Morris. The stuff is solid enough, the deceptive delivery let’s it play up a bit, and then the command is just really, really good. Even when he missed last night it was just off the plate. We watched him work quadrants throughout the game.
I posted about Javier Vaz KC yesterday on X so I am also bringing him up here. He’s out of Vanderbilt but wasn’t a regular until his draft season. We are talking a 15th rd pick in 2022, so Vaz did not come out high on draft lists. And he’s mostly stayed off the radar since.
Vaz is small at 5’6 and floats defensively between LF, 2B, and SS. This is going to be a stretchy comp but with a really good outcome for Vaz think of a lighter version of Luis Arraez. But one that has speed and can field well enough not to be a liability. Vaz has walked more than he has struck out at A, High A, and AA (where he is now). With 8 home runs last year and 4 so far this year he’s not a total lightweight hitter either. Anyway, another low acquisition cost guy that will see MLB time on the low end and has a shot at more.
Dylan Crews has been overshadowed by Paul Skenes this year. And rightfully so. But Crews continues to move up and is now with the Washington Nationals AAA club. Which also puts him in the OF with consensus top 3 prospect James Wood - who just returned from injury. Crews and Wood are the OF of the future for the Nationals. The question is really just when will they arrive in DC. My guess is we see Wood this year and Crews earlier part of next year. Being objective, I just don’t think Crews is as advanced as Wood atm. Crews looks like he needs more developmental time before making his big league debut. Wood is probably ready now.
Brooks Lee is back in the lineup at AAA for the Minnesota Twins. The Twins are in the AL Central hunt and have had issues offensively all season. They need better at bats and that is Lee’s calling card. He’s a gifted switch hitter drafted 1.8 in 2022 out of Cal Poly. I bring him up today primarily because he played 2B last night at AAA. It’s the first time in his pro career he has done this. Lee has primarily played SS and can also play 3rd. But with a healthy Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis there isn’t currently a positional path for Lee with the Twins. So, if you want the bat in the lineup what do you do? Move him to 2nd at AAA and see how he plays.
This move may be setting Lee up to join the Twins sooner than we may have expected. And I think once up he is likely to stick. The approach and swings are just so good. I loved Lee coming into the draft two years ago and targeted him every where I could. And now is a good time to acquire him in your fantasy leagues if you have the ability to do so. It’s a low risk, solid reward scenario. Oh, and did I mention that since Jun 11 Lee is hitting .395 with 4 home runs, 10 runs scored and 14 RBI over 8 games at AAA?
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