Off To A Slow Start - Starting Pitchers
Apr 29, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Off To A Slow Start - Starting Pitchers
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Stats referenced are through games played on Apr 28, 2025.
At this point Tanner Houck BOS is only rostered in draft and hold formats or deeper leagues. The 11 earned runs he gave up against the Rays on April 14th flushed most everyone else out. Houck is sitting on a 7.58 ERA, allowing 50 baserunners over his 29.2 IP. It’s bad and yet he looks mostly like the same pitcher that delivered a career best 3.12 ERA in 2024. Home runs are up, so is BABIP, and Houck is stranding runners at a career low mark. His velo is actually up a tad and there are no significant changes to the mix. It’s still mostly a 3 pitch arsenal with an occasional second fastball mixed in. It’s odd for a pitcher lacking overpowering stuff to rely on just 3 pitches the way Houck does. Maybe it’s oversimplification, and maybe it’s a bit of bad luck as well, but opposing teams have just been on to Houck so far. Even with MILB options remaining and with Giolito and Bello returning Houck should stay in the rotation unless things continue to implode. Odds are the results improve closer to career norms it’s just hard to justify the risk / reward to add Houck at this point.
Dean Kremer BAL has logged 30.2 IP giving up 40 hits, 8 walks, and 7 home runs while striking out only 20. Sort of serviceable in deeper leagues the last couple of years Kremer is now the proud owner of the worst qualified ERA (7.04) in baseball. You enjoy suffering if you still have Kremer rostered anywhere other than a 30 team format.
Jordan Hicks SF was going so late in early NFBC drafts you couldn’t help but grab him in the 500+ range. The results so far say we are getting pretty much what we paid for. If you take out the nice first outing against Houston Hicks is sitting on a 7.52 ERA over his last 5 outings. It’s going to be curious to see what happens here. Hicks still throws very hard and has two pitches generating at least a 36% whiff rate in his sweeper and split. With Birdsong, Harrison and Whisenhunt all ready or near ready for the rotation it’s possible Hicks could shift back to the pen where he has been effective before.
So, what’s going on with Dylan Cease SD you ask? He’s sporting a 5.76 ERA through 6 starts, averaging just under 5 IP per outing and has a WHIP of 1.62. Cease’s velocity is fine, still sitting just under 97mph for the fastball. It’s not that. The pitch mix has always been unusual for a starter and it’s shifted a bit this year. The slider is currently his most used pitch at 44.5% with the 4 seamer at 36.9% (down from 43.5% in 2024). Interestingly both have been less effective than they were last year. Cease also continues to mix in an occasional knuckle curve, change, sinker and sweeper. Those four pitches combine for under 20% of the mix, which is mostly similar to 2024 as well. Pitch mix aside, Cease is dealing with a very high BABIP at .388 and is giving up barrels at a higher rate. The xERA, FIP, and xFIP all suggest an ERA that should be 2 runs lower than it is. Cease also gave up 9 earned in his 3rd outing of the year, so there’s that. Bottom line, Cease probably was always going to have a hard time returning value on an ADP around 50. Yet he’s been better than his numbers suggest and will probably regress closer to his norm as the season unfolds. If someone is reasonably motivated to sell he’s worth pursuing in a trade.
We’ve discussed Zac Gallen ARI a few times already and recommended trading him if you have him rostered. Gallen is sitting on a 5.57 ERA with FIP and xFIP suggesting it could be a run lower. And Gallen did pitch better in the 2nd half last year, so lets recognize that. Still, this is a sell the name if you can get reasonable value. A few weeks ago I was able to move Gallen for Isaac Paredes, who was on a lower contract. I had SP depth and needed 1B so this worked. I share in the sense that may be the return range if you can fill a need.
Aaron Nola PHI has been an absolute workhorse for the Phillies, logging 1,656 IP since his debut in 2015. He’s such a competitor there’s no way I am going to write him off here despite the 5.40 ERA. Something to keep an eye on is Nola’s velocity, as his FB sits nearly 1.5mph down from the 92.5 to 93.1 range we have seen since 2018. Interestingly Nola’s use of both the 4 seamer and sinker have dropped this year as the changeup has meaningfully jumped. This is likely an adjustment to the velo changes. If you have Nola, hold on and let this play out. If you can acquire at a discount in a deeper league consider it, just don’t chase the pedigree too hard.
On performance and underlying metrics Chris Sale ATL should be fine. Not the 2024 Cy Young Award level, but high K rate with solid ERA and WHIP good. BABIP, xERA, FIP, and xFIP all paint a picture that Sale is still effective. Velo is down just a bit but still sitting 94.4 mph so that doesn’t seem to be an issue either. Let’s be a buyer here, just not an overpay. Sale always carries higher injury risk than most and that has too be considered.
Luis L. Ortiz CLE was probably a bit over drafted as a result of being dealt to the Guardians in the off-season. And now it’s been a rough start to 2025 for Ortiz, who’s sporting a 5.96 ERA while giving up almost 5 walks per 9 through his first 5 starts. Ortiz has significantly reduced the use of his sinker, now offering it primarily to righties. He’s also increased the changeup use as a weapon against lefties. The mix adjustments have boosted Ortiz’s K rate to almost 11 per 9. This includes 26 strikeouts in just his last 15 IP. Ortiz is a pitcher I’ve avoided and after digging in a bit here I’m more intrigued than I have been. There are interesting changes happening and Ortiz may now be an inexpensive acquisition.
Let’s avoid looking too deeply into Kyle Freeland COL or Antonio Senzatela COL. Not owning a Rockies pitcher still applies. Just look at the damage Chase Dollander has done to Fantasy teams everywhere during his 19.1 inning debut so far.
Gavin Williams CLE is sitting on a 5.14 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. This is over just 28 IP across 6 starts. He has mixed in 3 QS’s, including one against the Yankees on April 21. Velo is strong, sitting near 97mph. What stands out is a pretty significant pitch mix change. Williams is basically down to 3 pitches having mostly eliminated the cutter and change. He’s also changed the slider to more of a sweeper and is using it aggressively and effectively against righties. Williams remains a 50%+ 4 seam guy and should offer improved consistency once he lands on the right mix.
Ronel Blanco HOU stood out last year in delivering results that largely exceeded expected outcomes. This year the pendulum has swung the other way. Blanco has a strong out pitch for righties with his slider and could use a better offering for lefties than what his change currently offers. Expect Blanco to be a mixed bag, with clunkers mixed in with solid outings. He’s a deeper league play or a streamer if you are feeling brave.
Taj Bradley TAM is still just 24yo, yet somehow it seems like he has been around for much longer. Despite a 5.08 ERA Bradley looks a lot like the same pitcher from last year. Strikeouts are down a bit and walks are up though, while velo has ticked up just a tad. Righties are getting to Bradley a bit more this year and a less effective cutter may be part of this. He’s also significantly increased his curveball use and it’s been very good - particularly against lefties. All in all, this looks like small sample size variance and Bradley is still the pitcher you drafted.
Zack Littell TAM is sitting on a 1-5 record with a 5.03 ERA despite giving up just a hit per inning and allowing only 8 walks in 34 IP. The 8 home runs allowed have a lot to do with the outcome though. Littell has also been equally bad at home and away so we can’t target the Rays home park as the issue. Lefties are crushing Littell and opposing teams will start stacking even harder if that continues. I want to be fair here, Littell has had two really bad outings that greatly contributed to his season numbers. There just doesn't seem to be much in the way of upside even if things balance out.
It feels bad to pick on Justin Verlander SF. At 42yo it’s special that the future HOF’er is still on the mound. He actually has his 4 seamer back up to 94.5mph, which is near double the 48mph pitch I watched Amed Rosario throw in his mop up role against the Mets yesterday. It’s unlikely we get 150+ IP from Verlander this year, but he could be an interesting stream at times. Particularly at home.
A strong outing against the Cardinals from Nick Martinez CIN last night helps his case. He went 6 IP, giving up just 1 run and striking out 3. The ERA still sits at 4.68 even after the QS. Peripherals suggest he has pitched a bit better than the ERA suggests. What you need to know is that Martinez is a low K guy that should primarily just be used as a streamer, preferably away from Great American Ballpark. That 3.10 ERA last year included 26 relief outings and an unsustainable 1.14 BB per 9.
Jack Kochanowicz LAA is 6’7” tall, throws over 95mph, and despite this has a career K rate under 4 per 9. This alone makes him pretty unrosterable but now his walk rate is up and he’s gifting owners with a 5.47 ERA. Full avoid because even when things go right for Kochanowicz it’s still a problem.
Tanner Bibee CLE came off the board between 95 and 115 in most NFBC drafts this year. It was warranted after his strong rookie and sophomore seasons. So what has changed? Velo is basically the same at 94.4mph but there are variances in pitch mix that are notable. The 4 seamer and cutter both have dropped in use as the sinker has jumped from barely used to over 13%. Additionally the change up use is down while the sweeper is way up going from 6.5% to 14.6%. Last year the sweeper was used more against lefties and this year it’s primarily against righties. The other thing that stands out is Bibee has basically ditched his curveball despite it being a solid offering in 2024. Bibee is also coming off a QS against the Yankees and further tweaking of the pitch mix should stabilize things. All of this says we should have confidence things are going to get better for Bibee.
Cade Povich BAL is helping shape a new rule to not own a Baltimore Orioles starter this year. Righties are crushing Povich to a .366 BA and a .573 SLG. This includes all 4 of the home runs Povich has allowed. His last outing was a QS against the Nats but it’s an avoid situation until and if there is a sustained hot stretch. Long term, still interested - just not 2025.
Cole Ragans KC is sitting on a 4.40 ERA, which is so unusual for the lefty that we’ll include him here. He’s also listed as day-to-day with a groin strain and the injury is the real question mark. Everything else looks fine. Ragans gave up 9 earned in his last 7 IP, which does make you wonder if health was an issue in both of those last two outings.
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