Off To A Slow Start - Hitters
Apr 25, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Off To A Slow Start - Hitters
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We are closing in on the end of April, which is a good time to take a look at players off to slow start. We’ll dig into the hitters first and circle back to the pitchers over the next week or so. The list below is in reverse order of OPS, so the lowest OPS comes first. Stats referenced are primarily through games played Apr 23, but a few games are rolling on the 24th as I write so we may end up including some stats from today.
Marcus Semien TEX is now 34yo and in his 13th big league season. Semien has always been one of the hardest workers in the game and has pretty much posted up every day for his career. It’s tempting to point out that his BABIP (.162) is 120 points below his career average and yet his EV and barrel rates are fairly consistent to the last few years. This suggests things will get better, and they will. Yet Semien’s approach and underlying metric trend for the last couple of years also suggest that he is in decline. If you have him and can bench him, do that until things heat up.
Yanier Diaz HOU was a top 3 catcher during most drafts this year, coming off a strong .299/70/16/84/2 slash in 2024. We avoided drafting Diaz, for the most part due to his free swinging and bottom of the league chase rate. That combined with the high cost were of enough concern to look elsewhere. So far in 2025 Diaz continues to chase everything, rarely walking and has also seen his underlying metrics drop dramatically. This includes his hard hit rate which has fallen from a robust 47.5 last year to just 32.7 in 2025. Diaz has also struggled against RHP this year and there is a noticeable decline in defensive value. With Victor Caratini as the Astros backup catcher there’s not much threat to playing time yet but it does make you wonder if there is a physical issue going on. Given the lack of catcher depth for Fantasy Baseball this is probably a hold situation unless you were able to grab someone like Agustin Ramirez and then find yourself able to move Diaz for at least 75% of draft value.
Reports have had Carlos Correa MIN finally healthy, with the foot issues seemingly behind him. Between health and inconsistent performance Correa has been a bit of an enigma for much of his career. The talent is tantalizing yet it’s only really come together a few times (2016, 2017, 2021) during his now 11 year career. Like with quite a few others on this list, Correa has an unsustainably low BABIP of .194. What stands out more than that is a 2.5mph drop in EV and a close to a 5% decrease in barrel rate from recent years. The bat speed and approach are still solid so that combined with BABIP offer at least some optimism.
Cody Bellinger NYY climbed draft boards after his move to the Yankees. Part of this was the idea that Belly would feast on the short RF porch in Yankee Stadium. Which has yet to happen, and interestingly Belly has a career low pull %, now going oppo at a career high rate. On the plus side though he is hitting the ball harder than he has since 2019 and the launch angle is up. The reality is it’s just time we all let go of 2019 Bellinger for good. With xSLG’s the last five years of .358, .354, .434, .391 and .362 we know what to expect now. Things will get better for Belly in 2025, but it’s unlikely he’s an impact hitter again.
Salvador Perez KC has a lot of mileage on what is becoming a HOF career. Yet at almost 35yo Salvy can still rake. Really the only thing that looks off here is some bad luck. With a BABIP 80 points below his career average Perez is still hitting the ball hard, reaching barrel’s, and keeping pretty much everything else in line. Salvy’s an add here. If you don’t want him, send him my way.
Willy Adames SF had a tremendous walk year with the Brewers and he was handsomely paid for it. Signing with the Giants presented a home ballpark challenge for Adames and it’s part of what is contributing to a career low ISO of .069. But jumping off the page is a 2.5mph decrease in swing speed from last year. Oddly, he has also seen his range at SS dramatically decrease. Short of there being an unreported health issue it’s tempting (but not safe) to bet on Adames track record to slash in the neighborhood of .240/80/20/80/10 before the season is over.
Jonathan India KC is having another slow start for a player with a new team. He’s still the guy you thought you were getting on draft day, which is .245/80/15/60/10. Maybe we have to tamp down the long balls a bit given home ballpark factors but you get the idea. A serviceable player in most formats and one you wouldn’t mind upgrading from given the opportunity.
Alec Bohm PHI has had a mercurial tenure with the Phillies and his start to 2025 isn’t going to help with that. Bohm has the 2nd most AB’s in MLB without a home run, trailing only Bo Bichette. It’s surprising given Bohm is 6’5 and is 86th percentile in hard hit %. The issue is that Bohm is back to killing worms with a ground ball rate over 51%. This translates to a 5.8% launch angle, which was how his big league career started. This has to change for the results to improve. And while it will change at some point the upside may not be worth the wait versus current replacement options. Piling on a bit, you get the feeling if the Phillies had a better option at 3B they would use it.
Let’s keep it short and to the point with Dylan Crews WAS. He’s still a rookie, he’s still learning and he is ridiculously talented. Bet the upside and acquire if you can. Do not sell…particularly in Dynasty!
Jake Burger TEX has had a lot going on outside of baseball. Just remind yourself he’s a professional hitter and the odds are in favor of Burger finishing the year where you thought he would. Hold here unless you just have an obvious upgrade opportunity.
Colt Keith DET is a young hitter we should be worried about. If it weren't for his contract it’s likely Keith would be back in AAA by now. And that still could happen. The Tigers signed Gleyber Torres for 2B, moving Keith to 1B and seemingly leaving Spencer Torkelson without a position. This has already changed with Tork playing better and grabbing most of the 1B reps. Meanwhile, Keith is making disturbingly weak contact at the plate while also carrying a ground ball rate approaching 50%. Move on unless you are in a dynasty format and can afford to stash him.
Like Willy Adames, Anthony Santander TOR put up a career season in his walk year. Now in Toronto Santander is struggling with a .189 BA and only 2 home runs. He’s not hitting LHP or RHP, his EV if fine but he’s not barreling the ball yet, and there’s a noticeable drop in fly ball rate. If you wanted 2024 Santander you are probably going to be pretty disappointed. However, 2022-2023 Santander is still a likely outcome so make your decisions accordingly. That would be something in the range of .240/80/30/90/1.
Ezequiel Tovar COL had his slow start compounded with an injury that sent him to the IL. This is a player that had a horrid approach at the plate in 2024 yet banged enough home runs to gain way too much buzz in draft season. Tovar’s approach did improve a bit to start 2025 so there’s that. Find someone that likes Tovar more than you do and make the trade.
Luis Garcia Jr. WAS had platoon concerns coming into 2025 and that has continued to be an issue. So right off the bat, he’s not a player we want for weekly formats. Still just 24yo Garcia is in his 6th big league season and carries a .268 career BA with a woeful .301 OBP. So he’s definitely a no for OBP leagues as well. Oh, and the 22 steals from 2024 seem suspect to repeat given his 38th percentile speed. Bottom line, Garcia is worth a flyer in daily non-OBP formats. Probably enough available options to move on elsewhere.
The first thing that stands out digging into the profile of Vinnie Pasquantino KC is a huge jump in his fly ball rate. He’s gone from a 42% career average all the way up to 56.5%, which has come at the expense of line drives and hard grounders that might have gotten through the infield. It’s hurt his BABIP while he’s also not gained in the power department. Vinnie can hit and the bat speed is still great. So this will get fixed as he adjusts the launch angle. Go out and buy low on the Italian Breakfast. Better days ahead.
The bat speed is still elite yet something clearly hasn’t been right with Willson Contreras STL. Maybe it’s been the position change going from C to 1B. Let’s focus on Contreras’s last 6 games where he has 9 hits, a home run, and a steal. Still carrying C eligibility he’s worth a buy low in redraft and should be a hold in anything but the shallowest of leagues.
So Mark Vientos NYM is walking more and striking out less than ever. That should be good and yet it hasn’t been. Vientos is sitting at .175 BA with just 2 home runs so far. This is not a good defensive player so Vientos has to hit to stay in the lineup. I’ve already seen Vientos dropped in several leagues but I think you have to stay in a bit longer. He’s at least hitting .265 since April 12 and has the two home runs in that span.
Dansby Swanson CHC is productive yet not a star. I dug into his profile a few days ago and that can be found here. Buy low if you can, you will get the same player he has been for the last 4 years.
It’s a health question with Brandon Nimmo NYM. Lower body injuries have taken their toll and it shows in a greatly reduced sprint speed from last year. Once Nimmo is finally healthy we will get the player we drafted. In the meantime, there are too many healthy options available to chase this kind of injury situation. So stay on the sidelines until he’s fully healthy or close to it.
I tend to avoid soft-contact guys like Andres Gimenez TOR. It’s a profile that usually comes with some fairly significant limitations. Still, Gimenez has put up some quite usable seasons and already has 11 combined home runs and steals this year to go along with his .194 BA. This looks like a small sample size variance and Gimenez likely returns to his .250/65/10/60/30 slash.
Did you know that Ryan McMahon COL has never produced a league average offensive season? That’s right, he’s a career 89 wRC+ and is sitting at 70 wRC+ right now. McMahon is strong defensively and is in the serviceable category for real life while being an injury fill-in guy for Fantasy Baseball. Did I mention the career 29% K rate or how unusable McMahon has been away from Coors? McMahon will likely revert to his normal self, which would be someone you would rather not have in your starting lineup.
Jordan Westburg BAL stands pretty tall in the buy low bucket. The only things that stand out are that Westburg is not pulling the ball as often and it has contributed to a drop in hard hit rate. This is another hitter with a .100+ drop in BABIP and if just that one thing regresses the rest of his stats would likely line up.
The BABIP and ISO are both down for Yordan Alvarez HOU yet his bat speed, EV, barrel rate, walks, and K’s are generally in line. What does standout however is a meaningful decrease in squaring the ball up as well as his hard hit rate. Be a bit concerned here, just not over concerned.
Eugenio Suarez ARI came flying out of the gate with 5 home runs in his first 5 games. Yet since Apr 2 Suarez is hitting just .121 with a 35% K rate. He’s a streaky player and an easy drop here. Particularly in the context of Suarez being a free agent in 2026 and the DBacks with Jordan Lawlar basically ready to go hitting .333 with 5 home runs and 8 steals at AAA.
The whiff’s have been bad but Rafael Devers BOS is still crushing baseballs. Look, the guy’s been hurt and lost his position. Don’t overthink it. Hold if you have him and buy low if you can. Barring an injury setback you are going to get strong production - particularly given the damage the Red Sox are inflicting on opponents (2nd most runs scored in the AL).
The last name on the list today is Adley Rutschman BAL. Another BABIP impacted performance, he’s oddly off to a slow start against LHP despite it being his stronger side for his career. Barrel’s are up and Savant is red most everywhere it matters. Add Rutschman if someone is getting nervous and you should be willing to pay full price.
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