Phil’s v O’s, Mookie, Blanco, Injuries, Zebby, and Keaschall
Phil’s v O’s, Mookie, Ronel Blanco, injuries, Zebby, and Keaschall
Jun 17, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
There are two big standouts for me from this past weekend in MLB. The first, is that the Phillies v Orioles series lived up to the hype and the second is another onslaught of injuries across the sport.
First, the fun stuff. The Phillies and Orioles came into the weekend series as two of the top three teams in baseball. By record, by run differential, and by the eye test for most. It’s June, but this series absolutely meant something extra to the players and fans alike.
Game 1 was a battle and went to the Phillies 5-3 in extra innings. The Orioles were down 2-0 in game 2 and roared back to win it 6-2 behind Grayson Rodriguez going 7 innings and Anthony Santander popping two long balls. This set up a game 3 on Sunday, which I was glued too, featuring a fantastic match up between aces Zack Wheeler and Corbin Burnes. If you like baseball, even just a little bit, this is about as good as it gets in June.
Game 3 left little drama on the table as the Orioles came out swinging and just teed off on Wheeler. The final was 8-3 with Wheeler matching the most runs he has ever given up in a game with 8. And he gave up 4 home runs in the process, a career high. The Orioles were on him early with MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson rocking a long ball in the first inning. Colton Cowser, Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg each added a home run through the first 5 innings. The series went to the Orioles and this is a match up we may see again in the postseason. It was a great weekend of baseball in Baltimore!
Moving on to the topic of injuries in baseball. It’s been a season like no other and follows a trend of increasing injuries over recent years. The list of hurt players grew again in recent days with stars like Mookie Betts LAD, Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, Michael Harris ATL, Corbin Carroll ARI and even promising Braves rookie Hurston Waldrep. Elbows, hamstrings, and obliques in particular are taking away significant playing time from some of the games brightest players.
The Phillies are set to get Trea Turner back today. And Ty France SEA, Eloy Jimenez CWS, Gerrit Cole NYY, Bobby Miller LAD, Jordan Romano TOR, Yu Darvish SD, Wilyer Abreu BOS, Zac Gallen ARI, and others are expected back over the next week. Even top prospect James Wood WAS will hopefully be back this week.
Player Spotlight:
With Mookie Betts suffering a broken hand that will likely keep him out for an extended period I went over to Baseball Reference and dove into his career stats. My takeaway is that we all should probably appreciate what he is doing even more than we do. Betts has been durable over his 11 year MLB career and has already accumulated 68.6 WAR. For comparison, the average HOF right fielder has 71.1 WAR, with 42.4 coming in their 7 year peak. Compare this to Betts having a 7 year peak of 55.0 WAR. That’s the 4th highest WAR7 for a RF, behind Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, and Stan Musial. That’s exceptional company.
Staying on the RF comps - Betts at 68.6 WAR is in range of HOF RF’s like Reggie Jackson 74.0, Larry Walker 72.7, and Tony Gwynn 69.2. Betts also sits ahead of HOF RF’s Ichiro Suzuki 60.0, Dave Winfield 64.2, Vladimir Guerrero 59.5, and a number of others from the earlier days of the sport. And none of these great players had the ability to just switch gloves and play second base, shortstop, or probably anywhere else Betts is so inclined to play. This is a guy who probably could make the Pro Bowlers Tour as well. Betts is known to roll 300 games.
Bottom line, Mookie Betts will be in the Hall of Fame and likely an inner circle guy before it’s over with. And he will arrive with one of the most versatile skill sets the game has ever seen.
Active WAR Leaders for Hitters - courtesy of Stathead Baseball
I recently traded for Ronel Blanco HOU in one of my dynasty leagues. This is a player I had zero shares of and a guy I had to think through whether I wanted to acquire. Between his pop up status and the foreign material suspension I had concerns. And then he had a couple of disappointing performances after his return from suspension. Add in to the decision making process this is a competitive dynasty league I am in and the owner offering Blanco is plenty savvy. I ended up making the deal primarily based on my need for SP’s supported by the fact the Astro’s have little choice but to stick with him given their rotation injuries.
So far I’ve been rewarded with two exceptional starts totaling 13 IP with 3 hits allowed, 4 BB’s, 16 K’s, and only 1 ER. Blanco has never been known for his command and, while it’s been better this year, it’s still not a strength. But Statcast mostly likes what he is doing and his three primary pitches (four seam, slider, change) each show plus and each is holding hitters to a BA under .200. At this point I am leaning into Blanco and avoiding my initial reaction to flip him in another deal. Seven innings of no-hit ball yesterday is pretty loud in my head no doubt. This after already throwing a no hitter back on April 1.
We are back in Little Rock for the week and the Wichita Wind Surge kick-off a six game series against the Arkansas Travelers tomorrow. You know I will go to quite a few of these games and post video on X along the way. I’m particularly excited to see the Wind Surge, they are the Minnesota Twins AA affiliate and feature several players I have been keeping a close eye on. Including a couple I have already written about in recent weeks.
Zebby Mathews and Andrew Morris are both in the Wind Surge rotation. Mathews was promoted to AA on May 6 and over 6 starts there has delivered 35.2 IP with a 1.77 ERA and 10.60 K’s/9. This is a continuance of his dominance over 4 starts in High A. We are talking about an 8th round draft pick in 2022 so if the Twins develop a legit big league SP with him it would be quite a return. I’ve not seen Mathews in person yet and expect he will take the mound this weekend.
Andrew Morris was a 4th rd pick in the same 2022 draft that delivered Mathews. It would be pretty special if both end up in the Twins rotation over the next year or so. Mathews has received more attention but Morris has been equally effective. He was promoted to AA on May 21 and over 4 games (3 starts) has 22.1 IP with a 1.61 ERA and 7.25 K’s/9. Morris has an unusual delivery that probably has some evaluators questioning his path but his results and command of his arsenal are undeniable. He’s incredibly stingy with the walks and has pitched great at every level. I’ve had my eye on Morris for a while and finally cleared a roster spot to add him this weekend in the one dynasty league he was still available.
The Wind Surge are also rostering at least four hitters I’m interested in getting in-person looks at. Former first rounder Aaron Sabato has struggled since being drafted late first round in 2020. He walks a good deal, which has kept his OBP solid but the 30% K rates in the lower minors, particularly for a college player, remain a significant concern.
Andrew Cossetti was an 11th rd pick in 2022 out of St. Joseph’s. Primarily a catcher, he has also played a bit of first base. Cossetti was a quiet pop up guy in 2023 delivering strong performances at two levels. The move to AA has been more challenging for him, which it is for many if not most hitters. The pitching difference between High A and AA is remarkable. Cossetti’s K’s are up significantly so far this year and it has drained his performance a good bit.
The last two names on my target list are Luke Keaschall and Emmanuel Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a tooled up prospect, just 21, and is very high on most rankers. With quite a few having him top 20 overall. I don’t think I will see him this trip due to injury - but maybe we’ll get lucky.
Luke Keaschall was on a limited number of fantasy radars coming into this year. But I’m pretty sure the Twins knew exactly who they drafted with the 49th overall pick last year. Keaschall is out of Arizona State and really blossomed in his junior season. His power showed up pushing him to 25 doubles, 18 home runs, and a 1.168 OPS. Keaschall also stole 18 bags in only 20 attempts. No doubt this moved him up the Twins list, and likely that of quite a few other teams.
Keaschall was promoted to AA on May 26. The report came out literally while I was writing about his needing a promotion. So far Keaschall hasn’t missed a beat at AA, he is hitting .333 with a .424 OBP and a 153 wRC+. He’s a quick riser for the Twins and has exploded on Fantasy rankers over the last few weeks. I’ve been targeting Keaschall since last years draft and fortunately have him on all of my dynasty teams atm. Watching his college video last year I saw a total gamer type, a ballplayer. That combined with a good approach at the plate, willingness to work the count, and a K rate below 20% creates a profile I just can’t get enough of.
He reminds me a good bit of Spencer Steer. Neither have a strong defensive home but can play many positions well enough while having outstanding baseball IQ. Keaschall appears to be the faster of the two and Steer may have more pop. Interestingly, Steer was originally a 3rd rd pick of the Twins in 2019 - so maybe they have a type too. And my first live look at Steer was also when he hit AA. I saw him in a game against Vinny Pasquantino who I knew nothing about at the time. I rushed to add Steer where I didn’t have him and picked up Vinny any where I could. I can’t stress enough how much you can see and learn just going to games when you are able.
Stay tuned for more on the Wind Surge v Travelers series and other topics as the week goes on. Happy Monday to all!
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