Gunnar, Teoscar, Crochet, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Evan Longoria.
Jun 14, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
Gunnar, Teoscar, Crochet, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Evan Longoria
It’s Friday morning and it’s been a really busy week for me. I missed writing earlier in the week due to travel but taking some time out this morning to look at key MLB matchups this weekend as well as drilling down to individual performances that have caught my attention recently.
The top two series this weekend for me are PHI @ BAL and KC @ LAD.
Phillies v Orioles features two of the three best records in baseball. Philadelphia has a commanding 9 game lead in the NL East and is sitting on a 46-22 record, second only to the New York Yankees (49-22). I’ve mentioned before that Philly has played a limited number of games against teams with winning records. I’m not suggesting it necessarily matters, because this is an excellent team. Still, it will be very interesting to see how this series goes. The Orioles are 45-23 and just 2.5 games back of the Yankees in the AL East. And the Orioles have played more than twice as many games against winning teams than the Phillies have - and they have an MLB best 20-8 record in these games.
Another point, the Phillies (+103) and Orioles (+107) have near identical run differentials. Not surprisingly, the second and third best in baseball…behind, you guessed it, the Yankees. Bottom line, this is the top series to watch this weekend and it will definitely have my attention. The mound matchup tonight is top notch with budding aces Ranger Suarez (10-1 1.81 ERA) v Kyle Bradish (2-0 2.62).
The Royals v Dodgers is a star studded affair with Bobby Witt Jr., Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and so many others. The matchup itself will be fun yet doesn’t line up quite like the Phillies v Orioles. Here the Dodgers are the better team both statistically and when just watching the teams play. KC feels like a still forming team that hasn’t yet hit its full stride while the Dodgers are probably the most high profile group in the game. KC has sneaky pitching and they kick the series off with their ace Cole Ragans (4-4 3.08) going against unheralded Gavin Stone (7-2 2.93) who has been quite good so far.
There are also quite a few fun divisional matchups this weekend including Cardinals v Cubs, Yankees v Red Sox, and Reds v Brewers. Each of these series should have that extra energy that comes from familiarity in divisional play.
Player spotlights:
What Gunnar Henderson is doing in Baltimore deserves even more attention than it’s getting. In 2023 Gunnar finished 8th in the AL MVP race and won AL ROY. He did this with a slash of .255/100/28/82/10, .325 OBP, .489 SLG, and 123 wRC. In 2024 Gunnar has improved in every aspect of his game and is currently sitting at .273/55/21/47/9 with a .372 OBP, .592 SLG, and 172 wRC+. He’s putting these numbers up while playing SS and batting leadoff. Gunnar is the key player on a team loaded with talent up and down the lineup. If it weren’t for Aaron Judge I would have Gunnar in the lead for AL MVP. Here’s a look at the top AL MVP candidates currently.
Teoscar Hernandez is one of the best free agent signings of the offseason. The Dodgers picked him up on a one year deal at $23.5m. After going off on the Yankees Teoscar has 17 home runs, 40 runs scored, and 50 RBI. And his 140 wRC+ is the second highest of his career. The Dodgers OF has been an issue this year, so imagine where it would be without Teoscar. He’s putting up a season that will likely get him paid very well, particularly for a player who will enter his age 32 season. And keeping in mind the 3 home runs and 9 RBI’s he just dropped on the Yankees over just 3 games - imagine the impact he can have if he rolls a hot streak in the post-season.
Garrett Crochet has been exceptional for the Chicago White Sox. He’s just 24yo and was the 11th overall pick in the 2020 draft. He made it to the big leagues in 2020 as a reliever and then effectively pitched 2021 in the same role. Then came Tommy John Surgery (TJS), so he missed all of 2022 and pitched only 12.2 innings in 2023. Still as a reliever. So 2024 is his first time to start in the big leagues and he has already amassed 82.2 innings pitched - exceeding his career total. I bring all of this up to say that I continue to wonder how many additional innings he can throw in 2024. Crochet has been pretty loudly mentioned as a trade candidate for the White Sox along with Luis Robert Jr. and several others. Crochet should get a haul in return given his performance and the fact that he will just enter his first arbitration year in 2025. Is it possible that he is more likely to go to a team looking at 2025 and beyond versus a team pushing for the postseason? It would not surprise me if this turns out to be the case.
I absolutely love how many rookies are making their debuts over the last few years. The system is rightfully testing players at the major league level sooner than in past years. This year we have seen so much hype on players like Jackson Holliday, Wyatt Langford, Jackson Chourio, Paul Skenes, and others. All deserved but not all will initially succeed at the same levels. I bring this up to put a spotlight on Jackson Merrill. The third Jackson rookie by most expectations. Also the one that is quietly having consistent success at the big league level.
I first saw Merrill in person during last years Arizona Fall League. He was one of the youngest players there and seemed unfazed. While he wasn’t regularly driving the ball he had quality at bats and the swing looked really good. The Padres surprised pretty much everyone when Merrill made the team out of spring training. All he has done since is deliver like a pro. Merrill currently owns a slash of .279/28/5/26/9, .314 OBP, .389 SLG, and a 105 wRC+. His defense in CF has been strong, despite being a SS that only recently shifted to the OF out of positional need for the Padres. There’s development still needed for Merrill, particularly with impacting the ball and his OBP and that should come - keeping in mind he just turned 21yo in April of this year. Taking a look under the hood shows that Statcast data supports Merrill’s development as well.
Logan Webb SF currently leads MLB in innings pitched. This is a continuation of 2023 when he did the same. Webb may not overpower anyone but he rides his sinker and home ballpark to consistently strong performances. Webb is equally effective against RH and LH hitters and has only given up 4 home runs across 92.1 innings in 2024. It’s clearly hard to get his sinker in the air and his career ground ball rate is a remarkable 58%. Webb was drafted out of high school in the 4th round of 2014 and took a while to turn into the pitcher he is today.
Texas Rangers 3B Josh Jung is close to starting a rehab assignment and we may see him activated by early July. The reigning World Series Champion Rangers have struggled offensively this year, sitting middle of the pack in most categories. Jung has proven to be a key cog in the Rangers lineup, hitting middle of the order and delivering 30 home runs over his 152 game big league career. Injuries have robbed him of a lot of time over the last 3 years and the Rangers are clearly a better lineup with him in it. This might be your last chance to deal for Jung and still receive somewhat of a discount due to his injury status.
If you’ve been following me you know I have kept a close eye on 1B Tyler Locklear SEA. Locklear started 2024 with the Arkansas Travelers and I attend a lot of their home games. After a well deserved promotion to AAA Locklear made his big league debut after just 10 games with Tacoma. Locklear played well with Tacoma but the promotion came as a result of Ty France fracturing his heel. The Mariners have stated that Locklear is going to play and their struggling offense could use his presence. And last night Locklear hit his 1st big league home run in just his 5th game. This is a less heralded prospect to keep your eye on. Depending on your league format, take a flyer on Locklear just know it will take a strong performance to keep him up once France is back.
I’m not sure what had me go down the Evan Longoria rabbit hole but there I was earlier this week…just looking at his career and wondering where he stands against other third basemen historically. Longoria was the 3rd overall pick in 2006 coming out of Cal State Long Beach. Injuries slowed him late in his career and he didn’t eclipse 300 plate appearances after his age 33 season.
Longoria accumulated impressive career stats, won the AL ROY in 2008, earned 3 Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger, and finished top ten in MVP voting 3 times. He played strong defense and delivered a career OPS+ of 119. Longoria played in the postseason a total of six times with 4 different teams. In general he struggled in October but did deliver 6 home runs during the Tampa Bay Rays 2008 postseason that ended in a World Series loss to the Phillies.
Longoria ranks 14th all-time in career WAR for third basemen (see below). To me it’s a borderline case at best for the Hall and I would absolutely want to at least see Craig Nettles in the Hall before Longoria when looking at 3B. A position that has notoriously been a stingy for admission to the HOF. A great career for Longoria regardless of his eventual HOF status.
Prospect Spotlight:
The Minnesota Twins are hanging around in the AL Central race despite inconsistent play this year. The lineup could use a lift and they have several minor leaguers that could get the call. Brooks Lee may have already been called up if not for injury. While Matt Wallner and Austin Martin have both seen time with the Twins and may be called back up.
Two big upside players in the system are Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez. Jenkins is still playing A ball so he is likely two years away. Rodriguez though is at AA and performing very well, sitting at the top of all minor leaguers with a 199 wRC+. He has a 25% walk rate helping him to a .479 OBP. And he is slugging .621, which is 9th best in MILB. A 27% K rate and a BABIP of .414 both warrant a bit of caution in his performance. Currently Rodriguez is on the IL with a thumb injury but once healthy it’s possible he could move to AAA and then join the Twins for the stretch run.
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