This Weekend in Baseball May 16, 2024
This Weekend in Baseball
May 16, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
It’s Thursday evening and we have a light MLB schedule with only 6 games. This has me looking ahead at the weekend in baseball. What are some of the more interesting matchups, some stat surfing, and a few player notes as well.
Key Matchups to Watch:
Mariners v Orioles: The Mariners can pitch with anyone but the offense has struggled ranking 20th in OPS while also leading MLB in strikeouts. Remarkably the Mariners are averaging over 10K’s per game. The Orioles, however, are top 5 in OPS, ERA and a slew of other categories. I always like catching a Mariners game on TV and just can’t get enough of this young Orioles team.
Pirates v Cubs: While they won’t pitch against each other we will see both Paul Skenes and Shota Imanaga go in this series. Skenes will be tested in his second big league start (Fri), against a Cubs team that is playing good baseball. And if you love pitching, watching Imanaga is close to must watch - and I would expect him to give the Pirates all they can handle and then some.
Twins v Guardians: These two teams are battling with the Royals in a much improved AL Central. The Twins were hot up until losing their last 3 and have been led by Ryan Jeffers who is 6th in baseball in OPS - keeping company with the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Kyle Tucker and Aaron Judge. While the Guardians don’t have a player standing out like Jeffers, they just keep doing that Guardian thing where they win baseball games.
Recent SP Call-Ups: As mentioned, Paul Skenes will make his 2nd start of the season. Robert Gasser (MLW) pitched well enough in his second outing yesterday and should make a 3rd start early next week. Christian Scott (NYM) is lined up for tomorrow night in a very favorable matchup against the struggling Marlins. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) isn’t getting the same fanfare but has been effective and goes against the Guardians tomorrow as well. Skenes clearly has the highest upside of the four and has the potential to be elite. From a fantasy standpoint, I think Skenes is in one category while I rank the others Gasser, Scott and then SWR. When also considering acquisition costs and potential workload Gasser is my top target of the group.
There are currently 9 qualifying players with an OPS over 1.000 in May. Several usual names are there with Judge, Ohtani, and Bryce Harper but it’s a surprise to see 3 catchers in the group. Led by William Contreras, who is absolutely the MVP of a very good Brewers team, we also have Shea Langeliers and Ryan Jeffers over 1.000. It’s a short sample halfway through the month and as much as I love what Jeffers is doing it feels like Contreras is the only catcher this year with a shot of holding this elite level of production.
So I took the preseason under on Tyler Glasnow logging 172.5 strikeouts this year. My logic, primarily, was that he has never thrown more than 120 innings in a year. So if everything went well for him health wise I made the assumption he might top out at 150 IP. At that point he would need to average 10.35 K/9. This is doable for Glasnow and he currently sits at 11.53 K/9 while also leading MLB in K’s with 73. I don’t like my odds on this one at this point. But also just find it hard to consider the over on strikeouts for any SP given baseballs injury issues. Side note, who had Garrett Crochet second in MLB in K’s with 70 through 51.2 IP?!?
May Stolen Base Leaders: Elly De La Cruz is tied for the lead at 8 and is getting all the attention. But did we expect the top 10 to include names like Jose Caballero (8), Darion Blanco (6), Trey Lipscomb (5), Brenton Doyle (4), Eddie Rosario (4), and Spencer Steer (4). A couple of those names were on my early April list for where to find steals on the cheap. https://www.3-1count.com/blog/steals-on-the-value-aisle
Jordan Beck hit his 1st big league home run this week, which is awesome and hopefully gets him rolling. Mining the stats though shows him with 19 strikeouts in May against 0 (zero!) walks! And this barely outpaces his teammate Ezequial Tovar who is at 18/1 on the month. Giancarlo Stanton is also in on the fun at 17/1. With Beck and Tovar both playing for the Rockies you know I had to dig into the May team totals. I found the Rockies with 34 walks and 128 K’s. They are 24th in walks and only 3 teams had more K’s. While the Rockies have reeled off 7 straight wins these are underlying stats to keep an eye on.
The Atlanta Braves aren’t currently considered one of the stronger farm systems but they do have several interesting players that could give the big league club a lift over the next 12-18 months. For comparison, I’m taking a look at Hurston Waldrep and Owen Murphy. Two very promising young arms. Waldrep is 22yo, a 1st rd pick (#24) in 2023 and currently at AA. Murphy is 20yo, a 1st rd pick (#20) in 2022 and currently at High A. Waldrep is coming off of a dominant 8 inning outing and has pitched very well over his last 5 starts. Recovering from 2 dud outings to start the year. And Owen Murphy is cruising through High A with a 1.54 era and over 13 K/9. What to expect moving forward? Waldrep has an outside shot at big league time this year, either as a starter or a reliever. And a promotion to AAA could come sooner than later. While Murphy is basically demanding a promotion to AA, he is very unlikely to be called up to the big leagues this year.
A lot has been written about Corbin Carroll’s (ARI) struggles and speculation as to what might be going on. This is a player that lit up baseball during the regular season last year, easily winning NL ROY. When he’s going well he’s one of those players you can’t take your eyes off of - just electric on the field.
Carroll’s shoulder troubles have been widely reported. It’s his right shoulder, which is the lead shoulder on his LH swing. It seems very likely that this is at least part of what is going on. An injury like this can easily sap bat speed and power. Carroll’s 2024 EV is 86.4mph, which is significantly down from 90mph last year. His hard hit rate has fallen with this and now sits at 31.3%. His ISO at .062 also points to the same thing, as does only 6 extra base hits through 42 games while he had 65 XBH’s last year - on a pace for less than 1/2 of what he produced in 2023.
Another thing I wonder about is timing and consistency. Carroll has a good bit of noise in his pre-swing approach. This can mess with timing and contribute to streakiness in production. The shoulder question could be wrapped up in this consideration too. If it’s not 100% then it could be a real challenge to maintain timing.
Junior Caminero (TAM) has played his last two games at 2B. So he now has seen time there, at DH, and pmostly at 3B this year. We know he can play SS as he played 147 innings there in AA last year as well as a couple of games for Tampa. The point, it appears that the Rays might be gearing him up for a promotion. Along with a host of others I have been staring at Caminero for weeks thinking it’s time for a call up. He’s certainly hitting well enough at AAA, sporting a 147 wRC+, with a sound plate approach. And the Rays have a path for Caminero to get regular enough playing time between DH, injuries, and his defensive versatility.
I still have a lot more on my writing hit list and will save some for what will likely be a weekend recap on Monday.
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