Weekend Recap May 20, 2024
Weekend Recap
May 20, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
It’s Monday, so time to take a look back at the weekend play in MLB as well as a few thoughts across the game.
The Mariners rolled into Baltimore with a 24-20 record and left limping a bit after losing 2 of 3. Friday they ran into John Means, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman and company taking the loss 9-2. The M’s rallied to pull out a late win 4-3 on Saturday though. This behind a solid Luis Castillo outing. Sunday the Orioles jumped out early and closed out the series with a 6-3 win behind Corbin Burnes and Colton Cowser. The Sunday match up of Burnes and George Kirby was excellent and the drama left early as the O’s roughed up Kirby for 5 earned in just the first 3 innings. All told Baltimore outscored Seattle 18 to 9 in the series, improving their record to 29-15. Good for 3rd best in the AL and 2 games back of the red hot NY Yankees, who have now won 7 straight.
The recently rolling Minnesota Twins were swept by Cleveland this weekend. This brought the Twins losing streak to 6 games and drops them to 5.5 games behind the Guardians and 4 games behind Kansas City. Minnesota’s uninspiring +3 run differential doesn’t suggest this is currently a team ready to lead the division. I feel like this became Royce Lewis’s team late last year and they absolutely need him back.
A week or so ago the Houston Astros were being written off for 2024. Now after winning 8 of their last 10 things look different. They are still 5 games under .500 and have played plenty of bad baseball this year. But the team has talent and the AL West is definitely up for grabs with Seattle and Texas both struggling to separate.
The Phillies put a hurt on the Nationals taking all 3 games and improving their MLB best record to 34-14. Now sitting on a 5 game lead over the struggling Atlanta Braves the Phillies will enjoy a day off and then host the Texas Rangers. Atlanta, meanwhile, has a doubleheader against San Diego today and then roll into Chicago for a series against a good Cubs team.
An upcoming series to look forward to starts on Monday May 27 when the Milwaukee Brewers travel to Chicago to face the Cubs for four games. This includes two day games and isn’t that how Wrigley Field was meant to be played?! I believe the Brewers and Cubs will battle it out for the NL Central all season and I also feel both have a strong shot at making the post-season. Both feel underrated to me, particularly the Brewers who feel like the sneakiest really good team in baseball so far this year.
Player notes:
I suspect pretty much everyone writing about baseball has something to say about Elly De La Cruz right now. He is doing most of the Ronald Acuna things from last year. And there is no denying how electric he is as a player. He’s not the caliber hitter Acuna is (or at least can be), but the speed, power, and overall athleticism are pretty incredible. At the moment Elly is pacing for a .256/120/31/76/103 line. If he gets even close to it the MVP vote will be interesting given a lower batting average, high K rate at 33%, the low RBI total, and what is shaping up to be a losing season for the Cincinnati Reds.
Did you hear Paul Skenes pitched this weekend? We were traveling so I was unable to watch - and I sure wish I could have. It was an utterly dominant outing against a Chicago Cubs team that had already seen him in his debut. This time Skenes gave up no hits over 6 innings while striking out 11. Checking highlights it appears that he may have had a few calls go his way, but with the amount of run his FB showed that’s not surprising. It was nasty and gave the Cubs fits. Put Skenes on the board with his first big league win!
The Astros recent run has come at the same time that Kyle Tucker has further heated up. Tucker is a player that just seems underrated every year despite now rolling out three straight seasons of 4.9+ war. And with 3.0 WAR currently he is poised to have his best season yet. A career 137 wRC+ Tucker is currently at 192. It’s his age 27 season, which has been noted as often the peak window for baseball players. It doesn’t always work out this way, but it delivers more often than you might think.
Playing the projection game for Tucker puts MVP caliber numbers on the table. And if the Astros surge continues he will rightfully be in that conversation although a couple guys in the Bronx and several others will have a say in that too. Atm, Tuckers season pace is for a stat line of .287/114/52/114/24 and an OBP of .417.
Is anyone noticing Alec Bohm tied for the MLB lead with 42 RBI? Only 5 homers, but 18 doubles (leading MLB) and lots of clutch hitting in the middle of the Phillies lineup.
Aaron Judge is sporting a 1.224 OPS over the last 30 days - easily leading baseball and 1 of only 8 players over 1.000 in that time. The other 7 players include several surprises in Bryson Stott, Max Kepler, Jurickson Profar, and Brent Rooker. For fantasy purposes, ride hot hands like this any chance you get. I’m buying strong rest of season for Stott and Profar (who appears to have unlocked some of the promise he has always carried).
Did you have late May ERA leaders as Shota Imanaga, Ranger Suarez, Reynaldo Lopez, Javier Assad, and Seth Lugo? That’s where we are and I don’t see any of these as all together fluky. This was clearly a year to fade pitching in drafts and hope to strike gold in the later rounds. For years now working pitching late into drafts has worked, but probably nothing like this year. My two NFBC first round shares of Spencer Strider were a departure in strategy for me and I have certainly paid the price along with everyone else who went there.
Staying on pitching and draft strategies, how much 4th to 7th rd draft capital went to closers that have greatly underperformed? Meanwhile, Kyle Finnegan, Robert Suarez, James McArthur, Jason Foley were all sitting there very late in drafts and each has delivered 10+ saves. Of this group I am reasonably believing in everyone but maybe McArthur. He’s putting a lot of runners on base despite a low walk rate. But even McArthur I’m not completely out on.
Prospects:
2021 draft pick 1.4 Marcelo Mayer struggled mightily when he reached AA last year. His return to the level has gone much better this year and has him producing 34% above league average. Mayer has quick hands, an uncomplicated swing and is currently tied for the minor league lead in doubles at 16. FanGraphs has Mayer as the #68 prospect and with a 50 future value. It lines up and if his hit tool elevates his future gets even more interesting. The Red Sox middle infield could shape up a lot of different ways in a year or two with Ceddanne Rafaela, Vaughn Grissom, Marcelo Mayer, Nick Yorke, and Mathew Lugo all in play. And Nazzan Zanetello coming behind that group.
Ryan Bliss isn’t a name necessarily top of mind for most baseball fans. Bliss is currently at AAA for the Seattle Mariners and plays both 2B and SS. He’s been a spark plug type player since his days at Auburn, where he started all 3 seasons he played for the Tigers. Currently Bliss is getting on base at a .373 clip driven by an excellent 17% walk rate. He’s stolen 23 bases and has 15 XBH’s on the year. Bliss is probably close to ready for big league time but still doesn’t have a clear shot to play - and he’s not the kind of prospect to just push through and play no matter what. I bring him up here as someone to watch for playing time both from a real life and fantasy standpoint. He’s fun to watch on the field and I enjoyed seeing him play in the AFL last year. The kind of player you find yourself pulling for.
Jackson Chourio’s little brother Jaison is having a fun time at A ball for the Cleveland Guardians and will likely see High A this year. Currently Jaison has a 149 wRC+ and looking at video it appears he may have a bit more natural pop from the right side. While his power has not yet fully developed he is getting on base at a .428 clip. This thanks in part to a 20% walk rate, while striking out only 15% of the time. Since turning pro Jaison has walked 113 times against 96 K’s. It’s low minors, so take it all with a grain of salt. I generally reserve much confidence in walk rates until players hit AA. K rates however, if they are 25%+ at any level of the minors it worth paying attention. If you are in a deep dynasty league take a run at Jaison Chourio if you can. You will probably have to pay up a bit at this point, and it may be worth it. It’s premium athleticism from a switch hitter with plus speed.
That’s a wrap for today.
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