2025 Fantasy Baseball Outfield Preview: Targets, Fades and Prospects
Feb 11, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Outfield: Targets, Fades, and Prospects Outside the Top 24
We are taking a look at outfield (OF) from a redraft perspective for 2025. ADP’s are based on all NFBC 12 team $50s format completed drafts between Jan 1 and Feb 6 (63 total). Projections are from Steamer (unless otherwise noted).
Targets Outside the Top 24:
Cody Bellinger NYY isn’t the player he was back in 2019. And at an ADP of 108 he’s pricey for what he currently offers. So, why should we target? It’s the duel position eligibility combined with across the board stats stats and the lure of what might happen as he joins the Yankees. Projections feel possibly light given Belli’s 2023 and the team / park context changes. Steamer: .255/71/23/78/12
Ian Happ CHC at ADP 128 has regularly been available as late as 146 in drafts I have been in. And he feels a bit disrespected at that point. I get it, he’s kind of a Bryan Reynolds (Steamer .261/90/24/80/9) type boring yet he puts up the same stats 3 rounds later. Happ also makes harder contact and barrel’s more often than Reynolds. Steamer: .245/90/23/74/13
Steven Kwan CLE should be a situational pick based upon how your team build is unfolding at ADP 144. Kwan will set you back in home runs and RBI but will give you a lift in runs, steals and definitely BA. If you feel behind in BA, and have the home run cushion to do this, grabbing Kwan in the 12th or 13th rd can be a solid play. Just keep in mind it’s not an every build move given the areas he will fall short of needed production. Steamer: .284/94/13/62/19
Brendan Donovan STL was featured as a Target outside the Top 10 in our 2B preview (https://www.3-1count.com/blog/2025-second-base-preview-altuve-albies-mclain-garcia-jr-and-turang) and he lands in a similar category for outfielders. It’s value with upside in a versatile late regular or bench pick at ADP 244. Steamer: 278/72/14/69/7 (100 picks later yet not all that dissimilar from Kwan?)
Byron Buxton MIN delivered a lot of counting stats in only 388 PA’s last year as he slashed .279/62/18/56/7. Buxton’s ADP has been inching up throughout draft season and now sits at 225. It’s still a pretty easy upside play for someone who likely is being drafted as a 5th OF or a bench role. Grab Buxton for what he can do when healthy, assume less than 400 PA’s, and be thrilled if we somehow get more. Steamer: .237/65/25/75/8
If Lars Nootbaar STL can stay healthy he is an absolute steal at ADP 271. If not, then you have a usable player to plug into your OF when he’s not in the training room. The underlying metrics are excellent, Nootbar has a a great approach at the plate and hit’s the ball very hard (91st percentile). How convinced am I? Well, I am 6 for 9 grabbing Nootbar in NFBC draft and holds. Picks have ranged between 253 and 287 and in most instances he is starting off as a bench bat for my team. If I could have Buxton at 225 or Nootbar at 271 I would take Noot everytime…and would really like to have both. Steamer: .254/64/18/61/9
Daulton Varsho TOR is a question mark for opening day as he recovers from a shoulder injury. Some reports have him possibly ready, but for our purposes we should think mid-May. Varsho has not been a good hitter yet he puts up meaningful counting stats as reflected in his career 162 game slash of .225/77/22/67/14. As an absolute premier defensive centerfielder there is zero chance of Varsho not playing every day when healthy. So, at a ridiculously low ADP of 360 you will have a bench bat that offers a 20/20 pace when in your lineup. As with Nootbaar I am loading up and now have 7 shares in 9 drafts with a pick range of 313 to 356. Here’s a thought for you…how different is Varsho from Randy Arozarena SEA who has an ADP of 135. Well, Arozarena has a career 162 game average of .254/90/23/79/11. So, on average, Arozarena has hit 29 points higher, scored 13 more runs, hit 1 additional homer, driven in 12 more, and stolen 3 less bases. Straight up you take Arozarena every time. But the gap should not be 225 picks. Varsho’s Steamer: .224/64/20/66/13
Richie Palacios TAM is an end of draft dart throw that has a chance of paying off. As with Brandon Donovan, we discussed Palacios previously (https://www.3-1count.com/blog/2025-second-base-preview-altuve-albies-mclain-garcia-jr-and-turang). If the playing time ticks up, which is quite possible, then you have a solid plug and play guy for 2B or OF costing you an ADP of 484. Steamer: .239/38/6/32/10
Fades Outside the Top 24:
Christian Yelich MLW is 33yo and has chronic back issues - including an off-season back surgery that might keep him out of the Opening Day lineup. These concerns combined with an ADP of 108 are the only reasons he is on the Fade list. The former MVP has had a tremendous career and is still an impactful player. It just boils down to what his profile should cost and this is a point in the draft where you could add a strong SP, a 2nd line closer, or a CI like Steer, Vinnie or Burger. Steamer: .265/85/18/68/23 (and this is based on 615 PA’s, which is unlikely)
Luis Robert Jr. CWS has had one very good fantasy season (2023) and 3 others where he missed significant time. His K rate climbed to a ridiculous 33% last year, while his BA dropped to a career low of .224. Additionally, he is still with Chicago which means even if he gets things rolling in 2025 opposing teams can pitch around him due to the overall anemic state of the White Sox lineup. I also want to point out that Robert’s PJ is based upon 674 PA’s despite averaging just 429 over the last 4 seasons. An adjusted PJ at 429 PA’s is .244/54/19/54/17, which you wouldn’t remotely consider at an ADP of 83. Let someone else reach here, there are just too many better options to invest that draft capital. Steamer: .244/84/29/84/27
Adolis Garcia TEX still hits the ball hard, gets to the barrel nicely, and has been very durable. The problem is in the bad plate approach, the guaranteed sub .250 BA, and the fact that his sprint speed has declined from 28.4 in 2021 to 26.8 in 2024. Garcia’s PJ feels about right and at ADP 143 there are just more interesting things to do with the pick. To be fair, this is not a way out of bounds ADP - it’s just a very meh return comparative to other options. Steamer: .237/74/28/84/11
We discussed Randy Arozarena SEA when comparing to Daulton Varsho. Let’s pile on a bit and point out that Arozarena has seen his BA decline ever year he has been in the league and is now in a home ballpark that suppresses offense. The question is can Arozarena deliver his 5th straight 20/20 season? And, if he does, how bad will the BA be and how low will the other counting stats go? Shouldn’t there be less questions for a player going at ADP 135? Steamer: .238/77/22/78/21
Generally draft and hold formats have weekly lineups and that is the primary concern with Cedric Mullins BAL. He hit .196 against LHP in 2024 and has almost a 30 point career gap versus RHP. Add in the Orioles signing one outfielder after another and you have an almost surefire platoon situation developing for Mullins. At an ADP of 213 you would likely be drafting him as a regular and a platoon role could cost you significant counting stats. Steamer: .244/62/17/61/27 (based upon 525 PA’s, which seems optimistic now)
There is a lot of love for Kerry Carpenter DET in Fantasy Baseball Land. He crushes RHP, is coming off a .587 SLG season, hits the ball hard and gets to the barrel. Yet he is 100% a strong side platoon player with a career BA 88 points lower against LHP. At ADP 194 you would be losing draft capital immediately and passing up players like Isaac Paredes, Gabriel Moreno, Jurickson Profar, Nate Eovaldi, and MacKenzie Gore to do so. Don’t let the hype override the reality of a platoon situation. Steamer: .255/61/22/71/3
Heston Kjerstad BAL was the 2nd overall pick in 2020. He will enter the 2025 season at 26yo with only 147 career PA’s. Which is kinda shocking. Kjerstad desperately needs a trade to have any chance at a full time role and until that happens you have to avoid burning a pick on him. Even at ADP 337. Steamer: .247/39/12/40/2
You are probably catching a theme with the OF Fades. Sal Frelick MLW falls into the “where is the playing time coming from” category too. The Brewers have Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Christian Yelich, Blake Perkins, Frelick and possibly Caleb Durbin all fighting for reps in the OF. Frelick has pedigree, a solid plate approach, speed and excellent defense going for him. The problem is that he literally makes about the weakest contact in all of baseball. Frelick’s AEV, Barrel % and Hard Hit rates are all in the bottom 1% for 2024. Even at ADP 399 this isn’t a usable profile in most formats. Steamer: .262/45/6/42/12
Prospects:
Dylan Crews WAS is hanging on to his prospect status by 11 at-bats. And there already seems to be this growing narrative that he will be a good but probably not great major leaguer. It really seems way too early to throw that on a young player with his pedigree. In fact, advanced metrics show Crews with an above average approach at the plate already. Combine this with good defense, top line speed, and an above average hard hit rate and his debut looks much more interesting despite a BABIP driven .218 BA. Crews has an ADP of 130 though, which isn’t cheap. This is a “grab him when he fits your teams needs” recommendation. Specifically, an OF with wheels and enough power to have a 20/30 (maybe 40?!?) season in the realm of outcomes. Steamer: .246/76/17/64/25
Colby Thomas OAK put up a .277/79/31/92/15 season in AAA last year. That’s Las Vegas, which is a renown hitters park - but it still gets your attention. Just ask yourself, if Thomas has a strong spring how long can Seth Brown and Miguel Andujar keep him out of the A’s lineup? Thomas has an ADP of 468 but he’s starting to creep up so if you want him you will have to pull the trigger around 400. Zips: .235/63/20/80/10 (used Zips as Steamer only PJ’d 105 PA’s)
Roman Anthony BOS is on everyones radar as a consensus Top 10 prospect who just hit .344 in a limited run at AAA. Anthony is likely to open the season back at AAA and he is almost assuredly in the Red Sox lineup by Jun 1. So when drafting keep the likely delayed big league start in mind. At ADP 271 this is not an inconsequential pick. You could just as easily grab Matt Wallner, Lars Nootbar, or JJ Bleday in this range. Zero shares in redraft for me so far and it while it will likely stay that way even though the upside is tantalizing. Steamer: .244/43/8/38/7
Redraft interest in Owen Caissie CHC has ebbed and flowed all off-season as the Cubs roster has evolved and trade rumors have flown around. Given that the Cubs have Tucker, Happ, and PCA their OF appears set and Caissie will likely need an injury or a trade to get a look. Add in his ongoing issue with K’s and it’s pretty easy to see him spending much of the season back at AAA. Take an end of draft dart on Caissie at his ADP of 597 if you want, it’s the right price range. Zips: .242/57/14/66/7 with a 33% K rate.
The case for Jonatan Clase TOR is that he has a great spring and makes the roster over Myles Straw breaking camp. Then Daulton Varsho begins the season on the IL and Clase gets the early reps in CF and earns a role in LF even after Varsho returns. That’s a lot of moving parts and it’s unlikely, particularly given the other bench options the Jays have. Still, we are talking about a player that went 20/79 in ’23 and 12/38 last year in the minors. Zips: .221/72/12/60/32
Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN logged only 47 professional games last year and just 7 of those came at AAA. This combined with his continued high K rate suggest we will see little of the new ERod in 2025 despite all of the tantalizing skills. Zips: .211/54/10/40/7 with a 36% K rate!
Summary: Outfield is a surprisingly difficult position to effectively fill in 12 team leagues going 5 deep at the position. You are going to have to take some chances to build effective depth, so build as strong of a front 5 as you can and try not to overlap risk issues in your 4-6 bench OF’s. An approach I have seen used frequently is to grab 3 OF’s in your first 8 to 9 picks and then fill the rest along the way. It comes with a cost but will save you from getting trapped later in the draft. The other thematic note to add here is to be wary of stat loss with platooning players. Even those on the strong side. Literally one steal or one home run can be the difference in winning or losing a league so maxing out quality playing time is always a priority.
Check back soon for starting pitchers.
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