2025 Fantasy Baseball Outfield Preview: Top 24
Feb 3, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Outfield Top 24: Soto, Judge, Chourio, Langford, Wood and More
We are taking a look at outfield (OF) from a redraft perspective for 2025. ADP’s are based on all NFBC 12 team $50s format completed drafts between Jan 1 and Feb 2 (38 total). Projections are from Steamer.
Top 24:
Juan Soto NYM as the #1 OF (ADP 8) on the board isn’t a popular take. In fact, in my current draft he was the 4th OF taken going ninth. And I do concede that Aaron Judge has the higher upside, so this really boils down to age, health and lineup context. Focusing on Soto, he’s in his prime at 26yo and has ridiculously great underlying metrics. The guy’s Baseball Savant page lights up like no other. And Soto’s move to the Mets and the NL East may actually generate a small power boost as well. One concern to consider is whether the Mets will have someone to properly protect him in their lineup. Projections look a bit low and it’s likely a result of factoring in his down trade season in 2022. Would definitely take the over on stats here. Steamer: .282/113/35/96/9
If you are playing the upside take Aaron Judge NYY (#3 ADP) every time and yes, ahead of Soto. Just keep in mind Judge’s age, health history, and the fact he won’t be working with Soto in the lineup this year. Not having Judge as the top OF may look rough come end of season but it’s a hedge at least worth considering. Steamer: .272/108/46/114/8
Have you wondered how we would view Corbin Carroll ARI for 2025 if not for the (lingering?) shoulder injury and brutal first half of 2024? Shoulder issues are bad news for hitters (and pitchers). Particularly when it’s your front shoulder at the plate. I can’t say I love Carroll’s swing either but it works for him and his approach is excellent. What you hope to get here is solid power and top line runs / steals from a guy sitting 96th percentile in sprint speed. With an ADP of 10 I have to admit that I may end up with zero redraft shares. Which is the case so far through 8 drafts. It’s just a point of the draft where I am too tempted to take Paul Skenes and circle back with a power / speed profile in the 2nd. Steamer: .263/106/26/81/41
Mookie Betts LAD has an ADP of 11 and is eligible at SS and OF with 2B apparently coming. That versatility is huge, yet this isn’t the point of the draft we want to pay a little more for a little less to get the position depth that comes with it. Betts is a tremendous player, a total winner, and one of my favorites to watch. Yet for fantasy this is really pricey for what you are likely to get. Particularly when there are OF’s in the 40-90 range that could put up similar numbers. Another note is that entering his age 32 season Betts is coming off a significant drop in EV and barrel rate. Maybe he’ll bounce back, let’s just be aware. Steamer: .278/109/29/89/15
Kyle Tucker CHC has an ADP of 8, with a range of 4-10. He’s at 13 on my current ranker so it’s safe to say I’ll be zipped. You say Tucker has been so good and so consistent how can I disrespect him like that? Well, it’s not that. Here’s the deal. I’ve personally had a very similar injury as the one that knocked Tucker out much of 2024. And my leg never returned 100%. Add in that he is already not a particularly fast runner and that he is moving to a home park that is likely to be a bit less power friendly to him. Those are question marks to pay attention to, particularly with a 1st rd draft pick. Steamer: .277/101/31/94/21
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD has an ADP of 5 and yet he’s 15th on my list. And I won’t draft him even there. The reason is simple, lack of trust. I just do not have confidence Tatis Jr. will play a full season and there is zero chance I roll a top 20 pick in hopes this will be the year he plays more than 141 games. Argue back that he is elite when he does play and I can acknowledge that. I also recognize he warrants a very high pick. By someone. It just won’t be me as the questions are enough to have me looking elsewhere. Another thing, be wary of the projections that all pretty much have Tatis maxing out his playing time and easily exceeding any level of AB’s he’s reached during his career. Steamer: .280/106/38/101/19
Is this the year Julio Rodriguez SEA has a first half to match his second half? It could be a top 10 performance if he does it. JRod is an incredibly gifted athlete that needs to improve his approach at the plate, which will hopefully help him become more consistent. He’s only 24yo, so we likely haven’t seen his best season yet. Maybe 2025? Steamer: .275/95/30/88/28
Jackson Chourio MLW had an incredible 2nd half last year…and did it at 20yo! This is a player that in 2023 delivered a 22/43 season at AA…when he was 19yo! Love the player and the team context. The decision is whether Chourio warrants an ADP of 17, with a range of 13-22? I’m not sure, yet I have paid it twice already at 18 and 20. This had him coupled with Juan Soto in one draft and Jose Ramirez in another. Grabbing Chourio is banking on the athleticism while expecting further development given his age and progression. Could this be Acuna-esque where the Braves star dropped a sophomore slash of .280/127/41/101/37?!? Steamer: .270/96/28/82/27
A career .298 hitter we know we will get top BA and big power numbers from Yordan Alvarez HOU. While he has a rap for bad knees and missing games he’s been reasonably steady in his playing time hitting the field for around 140 games 3 of the last 4 years. One of these seasons Alvarez’s great approach and elite contact quality might pair up for an MVP performance. Yet at ADP 16 you are priced for perfection. Here’s a Frankenstein slash using Alvarez’s best season numbers in his career .313/95/37/104/6. It’s excellent. And his current PJ looks a lot like it. The question to ask is this the year it all comes together? Steamer: .301/93/35/100/3
Jarren Duran BOS had a fantastic season in 2024. A former 7th rd pick and late bloomer Duran helped win a lot of fantasy baseball leagues last year with his .285/111/21/75/34 slash. That’s an emphatic ROI for a player that was drafted in the 140-180 range. This season you have to pay up for Duran with an ADP of 23. Steamer: .263/97/19/71/31
Jackson Merrill SD was 19yo in 2022 when he played in the Arizona Fall League. Despite being one of the youngest players there he left an impression. The swing was already very good, he moved exceptionally well, and the upside was apparent. The Padres deserve a ton of credit for the confidence they showed in Merrill last year - and he certainly rewarded them. Nitpicking a strong profile you can say there is another level if Merrill becomes more selective at the plate. He has a high chase rate and a low walk rate so improvement should boost his performance. All of this said, Merrill’s current ADP of 27 is pricey. Grab him if he’s your conviction, otherwise consider Trea Turner, Logan Gilbert, or William Contreras in this range and then grab Harris, Langford, or Wood with an upcoming pick. Steamer: .279/80/25/90/14
I watch a ton of Atlanta Braves games. And what I can tell you about Michael Harris II ATL is that he is insanely athletic, is one of the games best defenders, has a high offensive ceiling, and yet has a poor plate approach and throws away too many at bats. At an ADP of 39 I wish I had a bit more confidence but there are question marks. I do prefer Harris at 39 over Merrill at 27 yet would be more likely to wait and grab an OF from Langford, Wood, Cruz, Butler, or Doyle. Steamer: .287/95/26/81/21
It’s unlikely (not impossible) that Wyatt Langford TEX hits for as high of a BA as Merrill or Harris but there is more upside for power production. His best stretch was Sep/Oct where he slashed .300/25/8/20/7. It’s ridiculous to extrapolate this but it roughly translates to .300/150/48/120/42 over a full season. Which would easily be a top 3 performance. This has an extremely low possible outcome for 2025 but we can dream, can’t we? Bottom line, our confidence level that Langford exceeds his current projections should be very high and at ADP 46 the potential for positive return is there. .264/79/21/80/18
James Wood WAS is another OF that could explode in 2025. Keep in mind he hit .353 in AAA and delivered a combined 19 home runs and 24 steals in 2024 - while making his big league debut. The Washington Nationals team context has become very interesting and Wood may end up batting behind Dylan Crews and Luis Garcia. This should have runners on base for Wood, creating a ton of RBI opportunities. At ADP 49 Wood is a solid risk / reward pick like with Langford. Get your shares, just don’t over-extend doing so. Steamer: .261/78/21/78/19
I’m letting everyone else grab Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL at an ADP of 29. He’s coming off his second major knee surgery and we already know he will miss at least a month. Consider that BEFORE the latest injury Acuna Jr. was an elite base stealer who no longer had elite speed. While I think he will still run, because it’s important to him, we should expect it to be much more situational in 2025. Accordingly, I think current projections for Acuna Jr. are too high almost across the board. There is just too much risk in his profile for 2025 to invest a late 2nd or early 3rd rd pick. Steamer: .291/102/26/74/44 (I would bet the under on every single stat…so be sure to @ me when Acuna Jr. returns in MVP form!)
Oneil Cruz PIT can’t hit LHP, has a poor approach at the plate, strikes out over 30% of the time, and is moving to the OF due to defensive concerns at SS. And yet we can’t take our eyes off of him because he also hit’s the ball harder than anyone else, has tremendous speed, and an absolute bazooka arm. Cruz is going at ADP 40, so he will cost you. The two position eligibility is helpful and the upside is there. But at their current ADP’s the group of Langford, Wood, Rooker, Butler, and Doyle are all still more enticing. Steamer: .256/81/27/87/19
We’ve covered Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY in our recent 3B preview (https://www.3-1count.com/blog/2025-fantasy-baseball-third-base-preview). This is an incredibly risky profile to drop a late 2nd rd pick on. Let me point out that his PJ would be a career high in plate appearances, home runs, runs scored, and RBI. Steamer: .246/88/29/80/35
The A’s have suggested Brent Rooker SAC would see time in the OF in 2025 so we’ll include him here. Rooker hits LHP and RHP equally well, was good at home and even better on the road, while putting up a monster 2024. His batting run value is 98th percentile and he crushes baseballs by all metrics. Looking for weak spots? The approach isn’t great as Rooker 100% goes in the box looking to do damage…and does much of the time. He’s become one of my favorite hitters to watch and the move to Sacramento should boost his home game stats. At an ADP of 70 I have lined up for shares and have 5 in my 8 redrafts to date. Steamer: .247/93/37/94/8 (a career .258 hitter coming off a .293 season and projected for a .247 average is suspect)
Lawrence Butler OAK is on my max share list, grab him whenever you can. I’m 4 for 8 in redraft and would have more if others weren’t doing the same. Butler absolutely found himself in the 2nd half of ’24 and projecting it to a full season delivers .300/107/32/80/30. That would warrant a first round pick yet Butler has a current ADP of 67. For sure, that’s cherry picking a hot stretch so it boils down to whether you believe. Further context is Butler hit LHP even better than RHP and had much more power away from home - which could change dramatically with the move to Sacramento. Steamer: .255/93/29/78/21 (taking the over across the board)
Last year Brenton Doyle COL was such a great value, often going after pick 400. He rewarded drafters with a huge ROI dropping a .260/82/23/72/30 slash line. The secret is now out as Doyle has an ADP of 74 this year. And it’s worth paying. The Rockies have indicated Doyle will bat leadoff in 2025, which could easily add 10% more plate appearances and counting stats to everything except RBI’s. Keeping an eye on the K rate which is high, but was manageable last year. The speed is 94th percentile so there may be more running and as one of the games best defenders there is no chance Doyle is coming out of the lineup. One area of caution is that he did fade into a much weaker 2nd half last year. Steamer: .245/83/23/72/29
Bryan Reynolds PIT has sort of become the dry toast of fantasy baseball. In the vain of “sure, I’ll take it but there’s nothing really exciting there.” Reynold’s is the epitome of you know exactly what you are going to get and it will be useful. But when drafting it’s hard not to keep looking past the name and consider what type of upside might be had with a different pick. Anyway, shop at ADP 94 if you want reliable quality stats. Steamer: .261/90/24/80/9
Anthony Santander TOR just dropped a ton of home runs on us last year while also having a shockingly low .225 BABIP leading to a .235 BA. He’s learned how to get to the long ball and didn’t care if it was against LHP or RHP. Santander’s move to Toronto suggests a few less bombs at home but looking at last season he had 26 on the road against 18 at home so what should we make of that? Is Santander at ADP 92 a version of Kyle Schwarber (ADP 69) two rounds later? Grab the home runs here if you need them, just factor in the .240 BA that’s coming with them. Steamer: .243/85/34/97/3
Teoscar Hernandez LAD somehow has an ADP of 62. Which is ahead of OF’s like Lawrence Butler and Brenton Doyle. Not to mention a stack of more deserving pitchers and position players. Chalk it up to Dodgers hype, or something else, just don’t fall for what is an overpay here. Teoscar is a solid to good player in real life and good in fantasy - just not the 62nd best for 2025. Some things to consider include that he’s 32yo, has never hit more than 33 home runs, has a career best of 92 runs scored, has driven in 100 runs just one time, and tops out at 12 steals. Teoscar also has a career 30% K rate and has seen his avg EV decline the last two years to a now 74th percentile 90.6%. Another quiet consideration is that defensively he is bad, really bad. So you can bank on him losing at bats across the season as a result and this chips away at counting stats. Steamer: .257/83/30/96/8
Spencer Steer CIN has an ADP of 113, offering a high floor limited upside profile. That floor is very useful and is likely above the current projection that has Steer with 100 less AB’s than he posted each of the last two seasons. This is a result of factoring in part of his limited debut season in 2022. So add 15% to each of the counting stats in the PJ for a better representation of what to expect from a full season. Steamer: .243/68/20/68/15
Summary: Outfield feels like a deep position until you remember each team needs 5 starters in most redraft formats. That’s 60 deep in a 12 team league and it thins out much quicker than you would expect. It’s best to come out of the first ten rounds with two and preferably three outfielders if you can pull it off. Outfield, along with middle infield, are really the key positions for accumulating steals so factor that into your approach as well.
Check back soon for part two on outfielders, which will cover Targets, Fades, and Prospects outside of the Top 24.
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