2025 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Preview: JRam, Jazz, Junior, Burger, Shaw and More
Jan 30, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Third Base: JRam, Jazz, Junior, Burger, Shaw and More
We are taking a look at third base (3B) from a redraft perspective for 2025. ADP’s are based on all NFBC 12 team $50s format completed drafts between Jan 1 and Jan 29 (30 total). Projections are from Steamer.
Top 10:
Jose Ramirez CLE is easily the top 3B once again. That’s what a career 162 game average of .279/100/28/96/27 will do for you. Yep, you read that correctly. Since debuting in 2013 JRam has AVERAGED nearly a 30/30 campaign across his career. And last year he elevated this to 39 home runs and 41 stolen bases. Even at 32yo there seems to be little reason to think Ramirez is slowing down. I have him #3 overall for 2025 versus an ADP of 5. Part of this is the lack of elite depth at the position versus so much top talent at SS. Steamer: .279/93/30/99/31(30/30 PJ with a strong BA!)
Three years ago I felt Austin Riley ATL had an MVP in him. Now, at almost 28yo, I’m less convinced. Riley hits the ball incredibly hard, including a career best 93.3 avg EV in 2024. He also gets to the barrel at an elite level of 14% for his career. While he may not end up snagging an MVP Riley will load you up on all stats that don’t require speed. And he will even give you a BA boost. Factor in that the Braves offense should be better in 2025 and you have the makings of a solid performance at ADP 29. Steamer: .267/90/32/100/2 (take the over on all but SB’s)
Rafael Devers BOS has an ADP of 31, right behind Austin Riley. This reflects how similar the two are. Pick who you like here, the short is that Riley likely has a bit more power and Devers a better batting average. In general though, I’ve yet to land a 3B share in the Riley/Devers/Machado/Chisholm tier and I expect that to continue. Grabbing an arm, the top catcher, or a 5 category OF has been more interesting. Plus, the 3B options between 100-220 ADP offer a solid return with upside. Steamer: .269/97/32/96/4
It’s obvious Manny Machado SD was still hurt the first half of 2024 and his strong 2nd half proved the point. At ADP 35 you get a well rounded 3B who should pile on the counting stats, even including a handful of steals. There are at least a few questions regarding team context that could be a considered in 2025. Something to keep in mind. Steamer: .268/83/30/97/7
Jazz Chisholm NYY turned into a different player when he landed in New York. First, and most importantly, Jazz stayed on the field logging 147 games in 2024. This compared to 97/60/124 games played over the previous three years. Additionally, his power spiked a bit and he definitely ran more. The 40 steals he delivered last year is likely the biggest reason he now has an ADP of 23. Well, that and the Yankee helium. Proceed with caution, that’s an incredibly high price for a player with his health history and a player that has mediocre underlying offensive metrics. At pick 23 you are likely taking Chisholm over some mix of Zack Wheeler, Jarren Duran, Trea Turner, Logan Gilbert, William Contreras, and Jackson Merrill. Steamer: .246/88/29/80/35
Jordan Westburg BAL has duel position eligibility with 3B and 2B. This is contributing a bit to his 82 ADP, which has a range of 61-100. We covered Westburg in the 2B preview (https://www.3-1count.com/blog/2025-second-base-preview-altuve-albies-mclain-garcia-jr-and-turang) and will leave you with the same general thought - this ADP is pricey and there are likely better risk/reward plays in the range. Steamer: .264/66/19/69/8
For the second season in a row Junior Caminero TAM terrorized the Dominican Winter League. The added attention is bound to push his ADP up beyond it’s current 99. Caminero can rake and has the ability to deliver a Riley / Devers type season. So looking at it from that perspective you might be getting a 5-6 rd discount. Just keep in mind he is 21yo with only 213 big league plate appearances - so there could be struggles too. The price is probably in the right range for the possible outcomes but it still feels like the Matt Chapman or Jake Burger types are the plays to make at 3B. Steamer: .262/79/29/91/5
What impact will it have on Mark Vientos NYM if he is the bat assigned to protect Juan Soto in the Mets lineup? It’s possible this happens and that would be a lot to ask of a guy with a 30% career K rate that reflects a poor plate approach. The power though, it’s legit and Vientos will do damage. With an ADP of 91 you are likely chasing power if Vientos is your pick. Steamer: .249/83/34/96/1
Matt Chapman SF is going off at ADP 131 and it’s an attractive discount versus #2 - #8 on this list. You might lose some projected stats against the higher drafted guys but in the round 10-12 range the table is nicely set for profit. This is particularly true if Chapman chooses to run again in 2025. Did you know he is 84th percentile with a sprint speed of 28.7?!? Steamer: .242/78/24/84/9
Jake Burger TEX had a monster 2nd half last year and also was a significantly better player away from home. Combine those two things and then consider what his improved team context might add to his profile. At ADP 113 it looks like most drafters are on Burger’s profile so we wouldn’t call this a discount. If you pass on Westburg/Caminero/Vientos you could lock in similar stats with Burger a couple rounds later. Steamer: .243/72/28/81/2
Targets outside of the Top 10:
In 2023 I passed on Matt Shaw CHC in a FYPD in order to take Tommy Troy ARI. This is turning out to be a brutal mistake. So, maybe as penance, I have been loading up on Shaw this draft season. It feels like even a solid spring earns Shaw the starting 3B job and, if so, he could deliver a 20/20 season from an ADP of 222. Shaw has been drafted between 190 and 205 in the last 5 drafts I have been in so you may have to go a bit earlier than ADP on him. Steamer has Shaw at 125 games played so if we were to boost this to 150 his projected slash is .250/67/18/68/18. That would be top 120 range contribution, so 100 rounds of profit appear available. It’s a fun gamble at this point of the draft, and one that won’t crush you if it misses. Just make sure you have the 3B depth to absorb a return to the minors. Steamer: .250/56/15/57/15
We were all pretty much out on Isaac Paredes HOU when he was still with the Cubs and now we are leaning back in. And rightfully so. Paredes at ADP 196 does what he does very well. While Wrigley was awful for his approach Daikin Park should be perfect fit. A broken record here, but these later 3B options are just more interesting for 2025. With Paredes we are likely looking at a CI choice anyway. Steamer: .244/83/25/78/2 (still very similar to the 90-110 ADP group)
Nolan Arenado STL is on a 3 year slide and we aren’t sure who he will play for in 2025. But at ADP 225 he is a nice choice for either a CI or bench depth. Arenado is a hard worker, still has a good approach, and at soon to be 34yo isn’t washed up. Take the shares when they fall your way. Steamer: .257/73/22/82/4
For a while there I felt like I was alone on the Joey Ortiz MLW redraft train. At ADP 298 you are looking at a soon to be 3B/SS eligible player who has a full time role, won’t hurt you and may surprise on the upside. Draft the guy, you will have instant bench depth for 3B, CI, SS, and MI. Steamer: .253/65/13/62/12
Avoids outside of the Top 10:
With Josh Jung TEX about to be 27yo and still only having 805 big league PA’s this fade is about health as much as anything else. His ADP of 208 is OK if you want to take the risk. In that general range you could also have Paredes, Shaw, Maikel Garcia, and Arenado. Steamer: .247/63/22/70/6
Max Muncy LAD is a career .228 hitter that hasn’t hit .250 or higher since 2019 (.251). With an ADP of 242 we should still look elsewhere. If a guy is hitting .200 how do you roll them into your lineup? That would be at least two categories Muncy would hurt you in. Steamer: .213/68/24/69/3
We’ve discussed Jose Caballero TB before. Just don’t. Caballero is a utility player projected for less than 300 at bats. The steals you get aren’t worth the other stats you will miss. Particularly at an ADP of 289, which is at least 125 picks too early. Steamer: .223/32/6/27/24
Christopher Morel TB has an ADP of 274, which is fine if you want to roll the dice on his power. The struggle is where will his playing time come from? Morel is atrocious in the field and the Rays prioritize defense. Most likely Tampa Bay will try him in LF and if that doesn’t work he becomes a DH/Utility bench bat. Which is the more likely outcome. Steamer: .228/58/21/62/9
Do Jeimer Candelario CIN (ADP 306) and Noelvi Marte CIN (ADP 344) even have paths to regular playing time? Maybe with Candelario, primarily due to his $15m salary. But fighting for playing time at 3B, 1B, and DH in Cincy are Steer, Candelario, CES, Espinal, Marte, Lux, Stephenson, Fraley, McLain, and possibly even Elly De La Cruz. And with Austin Hays now signed it’s even more likely that Steer sees significant time on the dirt. Candelario and Marte are both straight don’t draft guys for 2025. Steamer Candelario: .240/58/19/63/6 and Marte: .240/15/4/15/4
Prospects:
Shay Whitcomb HOU has earned the opportunity to play at the major league level. The question is whether it will happen in Houston or somewhere else. There is a scenario in Houston where Whitcomb could work his way into a LF/U role for 2025. If he does, and if he is able to keep his K’s down like he did in 2024, things get interesting. Whitcomb has three MILB 20/20 seasons under his belt and missed a fourth by just one home run in 2022. At an ADP of 561 your investment is negligible. Steamer: .225/19/6/20/4
Another option for the Astros is Zach Dezenzo HOU. Whitcomb has more defensive versatility so lean in that direction if choosing between the two. Steamer: .243/12/3/12/2
Jace Jung DET had a strong 2023 across A+ / AA and this is carrying his profile atm. Jung has always had a solid approach, walks in the 15% range, and has shown power. The swing is a question mark as he lays the bat back in a near flat plane and it’s left me wondering how he will fair against big league pitching. The Tigers signing of Gleyber Torres and continued run at Alex Bregman suggests they are not yet sold on Jung either. The path for redraft in 2025 is if the Tigers leave 3B open to internal options and Jung sneaks in for a long stretch of playing time. If so, you have nothing to lose throwing a 500+ pick at him. I’ve done it, particularly since it’s hard to build 3B depth 4 deep this year. Steamer: .225/34/8/33/2
Bryan Ramos CWS has gone from top 100 prospect to an almost afterthought in short order. Ramos is also competing against Josh Rojas and Miguel Vargas for playing time. Vargas is out of options and Rojas signed a $3.5m contract, so they will be on the roster. Which leaves Ramos at AAA until something changes. Ramos is a pass for 2025 yet worth revisiting next year. Steamer: .242/35/7/32/9
The only player seemingly in the way of Brady House WAS getting the call is Jose Tena. That said, House still has work to do in order to be ready for major league action. Atm, this feels like a late season debut and probably someone to skip in redraft. Steamer: .226/21/6/22/2
Coby Mayo BAL appears ready and probably would start for many teams right now. To that point, Mayo likely needs either an injury to open up playing time in Baltimore or he needs to be traded. An ADP of 369 feels about right or maybe a tad high given the question marks. Steamer: .233/15/5/15/1
The Mets have a stack of players battling for playing time between 3B, 1B and 2B. The list includes Ronny Mauricio NYM, as well as Mark Vientos, Brett Baty, Jeff McNeil, and Luisangel Acuna. This doesn’t even include the possibility of Pete Alonso returning, or a trade for someone else, or a free agent signing. With Mauricio coming off an injury that kept him out all of 2024 it’s hard to see him breaking camp and the question marks are deep enough to look elsewhere in 2025. Steamer: .248/13/3/13/3
A quick summary: Third base is sneaky difficult this year. You have one elite player in JRam, four really good players in the next tier that are being drafted quite high versus their production, and a seemingly sweet spot between picks 100 and 220. That’s the range where risk/reward looks to best lineup and it’s where I am doing most of my shopping. After 220 the position thins out again and it’s difficult to get to 4 deep for redraft with meaningful players at third base.
That’s it for today. Check back later for the first installment on outfielders.
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