2025 Shortstop Preview: Top 10, Targets, Avoids, Prospects
Jan 21, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Shortstop: Top 10, Targets, Avoids and Prospects
Cover image courtesy of Bobby Witt Jr.’s Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/bwitter7/?hl=en)
We are taking a look at shortstop (SS) from a redraft perspective for 2025. ADP’s are based on all NFBC 12 team $50s format completed drafts between Jan 1 and Jan 21 (14 total). Projections are from Steamer.
Shortstop is going to be a fun preview as it has the highest concentration of elite talent! Based upon the NFBC ranks described above this includes 5 of the top 15 players, 11 of the top 100, and 21 of the top 200.
From a draft strategy perspective we really want to land one of the top 11 SS’s and preferably one of the top 7.
Top 10:
Bobby Witt Jr. KC is not only my top ranked SS but he is also my number one player overall. Yes, in front of all-world Shohei Ohtani LAD. What Shohei did last year is probably the best fantasy baseball season since we have had fantasy baseball. So, how can Bobby Witt Jr. rank above Shohei? The factors are that Shohei will only be eligible at utility (zero chance we use him at P in a weekly lineup in 2025), he is coming off of a late season shoulder injury, and he is approaching 31 years old. I have to take the under on Ohtani running again like he did in 2024, particularly given that is how he hurt his shoulder. Meanwhile, Witt Jr. is coming off of his own incredible season, plays SS, and will be only 25yo this year. While we likely just saw Ohtani’s best offensive season it’s unlikely we have yet seen Witt Jr.’s. From a game strategy standpoint even if each player more or less repeated their 2024 performance I would still feel great about having Witt Jr. at #1 overall given the considerations on the table. For comparison: Ohtani Steamer: .280/123/43/104/34 …Witt Jr. Steamer: .296/108/31/96/36
Now comes the hard decision (at least for me) of whether to take Elly De La Cruz CIN or Gunnar Henderson BAL next. Early in the draft season I had Gunnar over Elly and have since flipped the two. Elly strikes out too much and there are other areas of concern yet you can’t overlook the 92 combined home runs and stolen bases. While Gunnar should have the better batting average and more RBI how do you overlook 34 less combined bombs and steals in ‘24. To put that in perspective, we are just a handful of rounds away from happily drafting players that will give us 30-40 total home runs and steals. Once I really dug into this one consideration I had to flip Elly back on top of Gunnar in the rankings. Btw, Elly just turned 23yo and could battle for #1 overall in the future if he improves his approach and R/L splits. Steamer: .253/99/26/83/54
Gunnar Henderson BAL comes in right behind Elly to round out the big 3 shortstops. Really, the elite of the elite here. We would all be thrilled to anchor a team with Witt Jr., Elly or Gunnar. Digging into Gunnar’s 2024 a bit you notice a second half drop off, particularly in home runs. This could suggest there is either more in the tank for Gunnar or the first half of 2024 was the anomaly. If the first half was an “everything went right” scenario than this is an overpay at #6 overall for Gunnar. I’m betting it’s not an overpay and happily grabbing shares just pointing out that we should at least be aware of this consideration. Steamer: .274/108/34/91/18
It’s a safe bet that I end up with zero shares of Mookie Betts LAD this year. No matter how many drafts I have. Don’t get me wrong, I absolutely love the player in real life and would be happy to have him on a fantasy team. My issue here is simply price versus a reasonable expectation of production. I feel like Steamer has his projections right or possibly even a tad high and I’m looking for more out of a first round pick. Betts is the #4 SS off the board and has an ADP of 11. At 11 I’m more tempted to grab Paul Skenes or Tarik Skubal and then back that up with Francisco Lindor NYM or Julio Rodriguez SEA on the turn. Steamer: .278/109/29/89/15
At an ADP of 15 we are probably paying for a top end outcome from Francisco Lindor NYM and it’s probably worth it. Lindor helped win a lot of leagues last year and will benefit from the addition of Juan Soto this year. Keep in mind that Lindor is coming off of an MVP level 2nd half of 2024. His splits and underlying data don’t suggest cause for concern, in fact he is getting to the barrel at the highest rate of his career. Lindor is part of the reason I have felt comfortable drafting at the back end of the 1st rd this year. Steamer: .257/99/28/81/24 (all categories look light and Lindor has hit below .270 only 3 times in 10 seasons)
Trea Turner PHI has an ADP of 23 and I am struggling to figure out if this is decent value or a small trap. I lean on the side of no profit to be had and so far have zero shares through 7 drafts. Turner has long been one of my favorite players to watch, dating back to his time in Double A when still with the Padres organization. He’s electric on the field and still has the best slide style of all time! Last year Turner was great in the 1st half and good in the 2nd half. Advanced metrics aren’t exactly impressive so there are just enough question marks to look at a #1 SP like Zack Wheeler PHI or the top C in William Contreras MLW over Turner at this point of the draft. If he were available in the late 3rd to early 4th range I would feel differently. Steamer: .277/93/23/82/23
Corey Seager TEX is another player I will likely end up with zero shares of. The bat is still elite and even 550 PA’s will make an impact. But that’s the rub, since 2017 Seager has eclipsed 550 PA’s just one time. This predictable loss in PA’s comes at the expense of counting stats and it’s enough to fade him at ADP 43. Also, you have the added factor that Seager will offer virtually no steals. Risk mitigation, particularly early in the draft, remains incredibly important. Steamer: .283/87/29/80/3
Outside of batting average Oneil Cruz PIT has a 162 game average of .250/84/27/91/23, which looks a bit like Trea Turner’s Steamer PJ. I would still rather have Turner, particularly since Cruz hasn’t figured out how to hit lefties at all. Yet I am more tempted to pick up Cruz at ADP 42 than I am Turner at 23. It’s a two round difference and Cruz also offers OF eligibility. I have zero Cruz shares so far, but have considered him several times. Steamer: .256/81/27/87/19
Risk mitigation is all over CJ Abrams WAS. When you are abruptly demoted late in your 2nd full season AND your manager publicly mentions you have been difficult to get hold of in the offseason … those are big red flags. Abrams is talented and built for fantasy baseball since what he does well counts the most in our game. Yet he is flat awful defensively and now has these additional questions marks. As enticing as 21 home runs and 38 steals is how can we drop a 4th or early 5th round pick on Abrams right now? That ADP of 48 is all about what he can do without enough consideration to the issues. So, I’m out at this point of the draft and think you should be too. Steamer: .255/87/21/66/38
The first question to ask with Willy Adames SF is whether he can come reasonably close to repeating his career best 2024 season. Ballpark factors have to be considered as does the impact of pushing for a contract last year. Adames rightfully got paid and will continue to be an excellent player and clubhouse leader. Will he produce well enough to offer a positive return at ADP 76? Steamer suggests maybe-ish. If you need your first SS in the late 6th or 7th rd and grab Adames that’s fine. It’s a bit odd to say, but Adames makes more sense as a late 1st SS for your team than he does for a MI role. I have one share in redraft and that is because he fell to me at pick 84 and, you guessed it, it was for my first SS. This was a draft where I double tapped Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal at 12/13. Which left me working offense a bit differently. Steamer: .241/84/25/80/14
Targets Outside of the Top 10:
We discussed Matt McLain CIN in our 2B preview (https://www.3-1count.com/blog/2025-second-base-preview-altuve-albies-mclain-garcia-jr-and-turang). Nothing has changed and he makes for an upside MI play or a late starting SS. Steamer: .259/77/23/79/17
Anthony Volpe NYY was a target last year and he still is. Underlying hitting stats are very meh, yet he plays great defense and is an excellent base runner. So we have job security and we have someone who can steal bases. And he might do this at the top of the New York Yankees lineup so he can load up on runs scored. Steamer feels pretty reasonable and leaves the possibility of upside. At ADP 145 grab those shares whenever you are searching for your MI, particularly if you need to balance out your running game. Steamer: .241/90/12/60/28
Masyn Winn STL looked a bit overmatched during his 2022 AFL run. Despite that his athleticism shined and that was my lasting takeaway. Winn joined the St. Louis Cardinals sooner than I expected and performed better than I had hoped. His plate approach is good and can even improve a bit, while he plays good D and runs well. I had Winn on this target list even before he came out and said he hopes to steal more bases in 2025…we should be even more interested now. Steamer: .263/87/18/67/16
I have no idea if Carlos Correa MIN can stay healthy and play 135 games in 2025 and neither do you. But with an ADP of 244 we should all line up to find out. Correa’s 162 game average says it all .275/91/27/98/5. Steamer: .267/78/20/69/1
Joey Ortiz MLW is my little late duel position, won’t hurt you, will chip in stats across the board bench guy. Ortiz comes in at 3B yet is the Brewers starting SS going into 2025. He is guaranteed full playing time and currently goes off at ADP 303. Load up. Steamer: .253/65/13/62/12 (and there is upside here)
With one last SS target throw a dart at Jacob Wilson SAC ADP 339. Remember this is a bench pick and one with elite bat to ball skills. In the Athletics lineup, likely batting leadoff, do you have to squint very hard to see .280/80/12/60/6? Steamer: .288/55/8/50/6
Avoids Outside of the Top 10:
The hair game is still elite. The bat game has not been. Bo Bichette TOR is on a 3-4 year decline and until it reverses I just can’t use a starter pick on him at ADP 136. Not when I can have Volpe, Xander Bogaerts SD, Jeremy Pena HOU, Winn, and other SS’s at or below this range. Steamer: .278/75/19/81/9
This is a reminder that it’s hard to work around 1-2 dimensional players…particularly when it’s BA and SB they contribute. Xavier Edwards MIA is going at ADP 155 and will be hitting atop a lineup that is going to massively struggle to score runs. Steamer has it about right and we should want nothing to do with this as a starter. Steamer: .282/78/6/47/34
There are two key concerns with Tyler Fitzgerald SF. The first is can he carve out an everyday position, particularly now that Adames is in the house? The second, can he hit enough (back to the first issue)? The approach is awful, he doesn’t hit the ball hard, and he strikes out over 30% of the time. I’m out on this profile, even at ADP 238. Steamer: .231/64/19/66/19
Prospects to Consider:
Trey Sweeney DET has the clearest path to playing time from this group. Javier Baez is still there thanks to one of the games worst contracts. And, accordingly, he will cost Sweeney playing time until either Baez gets hurt or his .225 OBP pushes him out the door as the Detroit Tigers get serious about competing. Sweeney is big, hits the ball hard, and plays good enough defense - even though his arm is short for the position. At ADP 469 take shares when you can, you might end up with 20 homers. Steamer: .224/35/8/32/8 (feels light on playing time)
Jordan Lawler ARI is a tremendous athlete and future regular for the DBacks. But in 2025 it’s hard to see him logging significant big league time as a starter. And at ADP 318 the pick is costing you a player that could be meaningful to your roster. Steamer: .245/29/6/26/7
Marcelo Mayer BOS is another player without a path. Maybe if Trevor Story were to go down with injury, but even then the Red Sox have options. I know scouts that have been neutral to down on Mayer for a while now and I thought it interesting that the White Sox chose Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery when Mayer likely was available. This is a last round pick, so if you are tempted the cost is near zero. Steamer: 39 AB’s, which feels about right
Carson Williams TAM is elite defensively and the Rays enter the season with Taylor Walls at SS. So, when the Rays chess move says bring up Williams he will be there. As a lower average, high K, power / speed guy we are likely to see a bit of everything when Williams is up. He’s a late gamble to go for. At ADP 553 there is little cost and it comes with a real path to back half playing time and some counting stats thrown in. Steamer: .216/21/6/20/6
My last SS rookie to mention is Colson Montgomery CWS. He went from overmatched in the 2023 AFL to much more interesting in his 2024 return. Montgomery looked stronger physically and more confident at the plate. Long term he might be at the hot corner but for 2025 he should debut at SS. With only Brooks Baldwin in his way Montgomery should be up by Jun 1 if not sooner. So at ADP 499 you have a chance to grab some bench depth with a chance to be meaningful at some point in the back half. Steamer: .204/39/10/36/4
That’s it for the shortstops. Check back later this week for the third base preview!
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