2025 Second Base Preview: Altuve, Albies, McLain, Garcia Jr, and Turang
Jan 13, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
Second Base: Altuve, Albies, McLain, Garcia Jr., Turang and More
Second base likely won’t be a position of high end production for many of us in 2025. So, we have to ask what we want to accomplish with the position from a team construction standpoint. And how much should we pay for that?
It might be that the approach is to find a good enough player here, one with a more moderate draft cost. Something along the lines of either stretching a little for Matt McLain’s upside or waiting and shopping in the Luis Garcia Jr., Brice Turang, Bryson Stott, and Xander Bogaerts group. There are also interesting plays in the 225-275 pick range that you can back this up with.
Diving in, here’s the Top 10:
Ketel Marte ARI put up a brilliant 2024 despite missing over 20 games. His 151 wRC+ was a career best, as was the 36 home runs and 95 RBI. Those missed games are the challenge though. At an ADP of 29 this should offer caution since it has been an ongoing career theme for Marte. Love the player and he has put up a solid .280/88/21/76/9 162 game slash in his career. But while his Baseball Savant page is about as red as one can get there are just enough caution flags with age and health that I will end up with zero shares once again in 2025. Risk / reward says this is peak pay or even above for what Marte offers. As an alternative, the pick could be used for Logan Gilbert, Jackson Merrill, Austin Riley or even workhorse Matt Olson. Steamer: .278/100/27/87/8
I’ve come close to drafting Jose Altuve HOU several times now. But in 7 drafts I keep finding myself passing. Altuve should be a HOF’er down the road and is still putting up excellent numbers despite his weak EV, barrel, and hard hit rates. Altuve has an ADP of 51 with a range of 36-74. He’s in a group where you could draft Wyatt Langford, James Wood, Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, a top 10 closer, or a quality SP. You could then target your 2B with Matt McLain, Jordan Westburg, Luis Garcia Jr., Brice Turang and six other 2B’s in the 85 to 175 range. Steamer: .268/97/22/72/19
Ozzie Albies ATL is one of my absolute favorite players in baseball. He’s a joy to watch, playing with passion and clearly having more fun than anyone else on the field. I watch a ton of Braves games and, like many others, keep wondering what type of production Albies could put up if he batted RH full time versus switch-hitting. For his career Albies is a .247 hitter left-handed and .336 right-handed. The RH profile is elite and has produced 31% of his career home runs versus representing just 25% of his plate appearances. I don’t think a change is coming but this factors in to what to expect for 2025. The bigger question is really whether injuries caused the 2024 decline or was it partially age related as he will play 2025 at age 28. Underlying metrics are concerning as well. My suspicion is that 2023 will go down as Albies career season and feel his Steamer PJ (incredibly similar to Altuve) is probably on point or slightly high for 2025. At an ADP of 60 I’m probably looking at a closer, a 20/20 type outfielder or possibly a high end catcher. Steamer: .266/92/24/82/12
Marcus Semien TEX has a wide ADP range of 44-103, while averaging 78. He’s actually 78th on my current ranker but it’s unlikely I end up with a share unless he falls to the 90+ range. As mentioned, the price versus return on second basemen gets more interesting in the 85 - 175 range and there is ample depth later in the draft. Steamer: .253/95/25/73/12
This is the range where value gets interesting at 2B. Matt McLain CIN has an ADP of 83 with a wide range of 37 - 106. For additional context, in my last four drafts he has landed between 85 and 95. I know there are worries on McLain’s health, shoulders are always concerning. I can only offer that he looked strong and even locked in during the Arizona Fall League. Usually I hedge against a shoulder injury but I’ve seen enough to invest in McLain even at this point of the draft. Another factor is duel eligibility with 2B/SS and the possibility he may (likely will) add OF as well. Steamer: .259/77/23/79/17 (note this is a 133 game PJ, just getting to 146 games would add 10% to the counting stats)
Jordan Westburg BAL was quite good last year before his injury. He’s also been noticeably better against RHP and at home. Coming up there were hit tool questions for Westburg and I’m not convinced he’s resolved those. Atm the profile is hard contact, nice barrel rates and a below average approach otherwise. I know, I just said I like this range for 2B yet it’s unlikely I pick up any shares of Westburg given his 85 ADP. Current projections look logical and that just doesn’t thrill me at this point of the draft. Grabbing McLain in this range or waiting for one of the next three second basemen is more appealing. Steamer: .264/66/19/69/8
Luis Garcia Jr. WAS is a great example of how working a ranker and digging through player profiles can sway your opinion. Somewhere across my first few drafts I went from maybe to quite interested. I have Garcia Jr. at 118 on my ranker so this may not happen for me given his current ADP of 111. But let’s just compare his projections to Westburg’s for a moment. They are quite similar with Garcia Jr. giving you a much better BA and twice the steals. Doing this while having an ADP 26 picks lower. Steamer: .278/62/17/67/16
It feels like Brice Turang MLW knows exactly who he is as a ballplayer. And I think we know too. He’s very strong defensively, exceptionally fast, one of the best baserunners in the game, and a total slap hitter with a solid approach and just enough pull power to get to 10 home runs. Turang could easily deliver another 50 steal season and there should be upside in his BA as well. With an ADP of 127 those steals are coming at a cost though. Given the choice between Turang and Bryson Stott at ADP I would take Stott every time. It’s just a better value. But if you need steals post round 10 Turang is one of the surest places to shop. Steamer: .254/64/10/55/35
Bryson Stott PHI took a moderate step backwards in 2024. His plate approach was still solid, but weaker contact may have partially fueled a 37 point drop in BABIP. Stott also didn’t fair as well against LHP even though he has been split neutral for his career. On the plus side he has been in double digit home runs each year of his career and has topped 30 steals each of the last two seasons. Given that he has a career success rate of 88% it’s safe to say that he will run pretty freely in 2025. This should be a solid return at ADP 158, particularly given the later source of steals. Steamer: .258/72/14/64/27
Xander Bogaerts SD has moved down and now back up my ranker as I try to figure out what to expect from him. The team context is solid, he has certainly been productive in the past and it’s hard to see a reason he shouldn’t be at least the player he has been the last 3 years. 2024 was the second lowest BABIP of his career for Bogaerts and it played a role in the 20 point drop in BA. What may have driven that is a 3 year decline in both hard hit and barrel rates. That said, Bogaerts delivered a solid .292/26/7/29/9 second half that leaves me feeling like he is a decent play at ADP 161…even if unexciting. Add in the 2 position eligibility and he’s more interesting in draft and hold formats. Steamer: .271/72/17/71/14
Targets outside of the Top 10:
Brendan Donovan STL somehow continues to fly under most radars despite being an important real life player and a quietly solid asset in fantasy. Donovan has a top end plate approach and hardly strikes out. In fact, he has seen his K rate go down each year of his career while his ISO has gone up each year. And I’m convinced he has another level in him. With duel position eligibility (2B/OF) and an ADP of 244 you can load me up with every share possible. Steamer: .278/72/14/69/7 (compare to Bogaerts going 80 picks higher)
Last year I targeted Colt Keith DET everywhere. This year I’m being more cautious so that should mean he is guaranteed to break out. With Gleyber Torres signed the Tigers have announced Keith will work at first base. If so, the duel position eligibility will give him a boost and at this point of the draft (ADP 235) you are likely drafting a MI, CI or reserve anyway. Keith keeps his K’s under 20% and should have upside to his projections. Steamer: .264/15/57/59/5
Digging deep for a very, very late draft and hold target in Richie Palacios TB. Let me start by pointing out that Palacios has a bit surprising career line of .240/62/11/47/23 over just 541 plate appearances. He also received significant playing time in the first half last year before an injury took him out. And Palacios doesn’t have to get wrapped into a platoon given that as a LH bat he actually hits LHP even better than RHP. Palacios’s projection is based on 320 plate appearances but if his PT jumps to 500+ PA’s then you could be looking at 30 combined home runs and stolen bases at ADP 496. Steamer: .240/36/6/30/10
Avoids outside of the Top 10:
Nico Hoerner CHC has a profile that looks like Bryce Turang, who I just praised, so how is it that Hoerner is on the avoid list? The answer is this: Hoerner somehow makes even weaker contact than Turang, isn’t as fast, won’t steal as many bases, and likely will hit even fewer home runs. But most importantly Hoerner is also coming off of flexor tendon surgery on his throwing elbow. Surgery was Oct 11 and this could and likely will impact his readiness for 2025. And there is little scenario where Hoerner just DH’s until he’s ready to throw. So, with an ADP of 156 we could have Luis Rengifo, Bryson Stott, or Xander Bogaerts at 2B without taking the risk. Steamer: .277/65/8/54/27
At an ADP of 226 the investment in Zack Gelof SAC is pretty modest and he’s coming off of a 17 home run, 25 stolen base season. I like the athlete and I’m not out on him career wise. Not yet. The issue is that Gelof has one of the worst plate approaches in baseball and if he continues to hit .211 with a 34% K rate he is headed back to AAA. He also hit just .138 against LHP so even if he stays up he might end up platooning. In the same draft range you could have Colt Keith, Willi Castro, Brandon Lowe and Brendan Donovan…without the approach and contact issues. Let someone else take the chance in 2025. Steamer: .225/67/21/67/23
Jose Caballero TB ADP 287 is on the list because he is a platoon player who will likely end up with 300-350 plate appearances. The 30 or so steals is the reason he is getting drafted but you would lose a minimum of 10 home runs, 35 runs scored, and 40 RBI trotting Caballero out over a full season. Playing time matters and Caballero should be going 100+ picks later than he is. Steamer: .223/34/6/28/30 (has anyone ever stolen more bases than runs scored in a season?!?)
Prospects:
Starting mid-season 2024 Kristian Campbell BOS hit most everyone’s radar and has stayed there since. A swing change took advantage of potentially elite underlying attributes and elevated Campbell across 3 levels, delivering a combined 20/24 season. The question here is can Campbell break camp or get promoted earlier enough to pay dividends on ADP 309. My sense is he is probably priced fairly given the question marks. Steamer: .266/38/8/35/8
While I have zero shares of Campbell so far I have loaded up on Nick Yorke PIT. It’s not because Yorke is a better player, he’s not. Yorke just has a more favorable risk/reward profile at ADP 473. He has already made his debut, and has at least 4 different paths (2B, 3B, OF, U) to regular playing time with the Pirates. Steamer: .246/40/8/35/9
Grabbing Christian Moore LAA ADP 520 in redraft is all about the expectation the Angels will keep moving their top prospects rapidly. Atm the scenario would be that Rendon is hurt or a bust and Rengifo takes over at 3B. If this happens then 2B opens up for Moore. My initial reaction is that he is likely not ready after only 110 professional plate appearances that included a 26% K rate. There’s no denying his debut was loud, just not a bet to make this year in redraft. Steamer: .247/25/6/25/3
I was able to get a long look at Thomas Saggese STL between AA and the AFL in 2024. The swing is a bit unusual, sort of back hand heavy. It’s enough to make me wonder how he will handle big league heat, particularly up and in. Having made his debut, and with Nolan Arenado rumors still swirling, there’s a lot worse ways to deploy an end of draft pick than on Saggese (ADP 562). Steamer: .241/36/9/38/4
Shortstops are up next, please check back later this week.
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