2025 First Base Preview: Vladdy, Harper, Freddie, Walker and Vinnie
Jan 7, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
First Base: Vladdy, Harper, Freddie, Walker and Vinnie
We are taking a look at first base from a redraft perspective for 2025. ADP’s are based on all NFBC 12 team completed drafts between Dec 16 and Jan 2 (total of 56). Projections are from Steamer.
A little table setting before diving into the rundown. First base is a difficult position for 2025. Along with catcher it’s probably the most challenging to create any depth with. There are pricey options at the top of the draft, then an attractively valued group between 90-125 ADP. From a draft strategy perspective it’s important to grab your primary first baseman no later than this group. That’s 13 first baseman to work with before you get into players you would prefer to have as your CI or a backup 1B.
Top 10:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR: Sometimes we forget that while Vladdy is entering his 7th season he will just turn 26yo during spring training. I have him #1 on my first base ranker yet have no intention of drafting him at his ADP of 14. Guerrero Jr. is clearly elite, so why would I pass on him? It really boils down to profit potential and team build. With a 2nd rd pick I would rather nab Paul Skenes PIT (unlikely to be there), Tarik Skubal DET, or a power / speed guy like Francisco Lindor NYM or Julio Rodriguez SEA. That would leave me an opportunity to get Matt Olson ATL a few rounds later or even wait until the Walker, Steer, Pasquantino, Bellinger, Naylor, Burger, Casas group. Something else to consider on Vladdy is that he is coming off a .342 BABIP season, which is vastly higher than his .304 career number. Additionally, the team context around him has question marks that could leave him seeing little to hit. Steamer: .297/94/33/104/5
Bryce Harper PHI: As with Guerrero Jr. I am generally avoiding Harper at his ADP of 20. Absolutely love the player and expect a big season from him. Particularly given the Phillies strong team context. Harper should be a relatively high floor pick here. Something to point out is that in his 13 year career Harper has scored 100 or more runs just 3 times and has driven in at least 100 just twice. And he has done neither in the last 3 years. Steamer: .279/94/30/98/10
Freddie Freeman LAD: The future HOF’er is now 35yo and has seen his average exit velocity drop 4 straight years to a now good, but no longer elite, 89.4. I know I’m beating this drum pretty hard but this feels like another max pay for a first baseman given his ADP of 24. As with Harper there is increasing risk of both injury and decline. So factoring this in I’ll look to do something else with a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick. Steamer: .287/94/24/92/11
Matt Olson ATL: If I am taking a 1B early in a draft it will likely be Olson. He has an ADP of 34 yet I am seeing him closer to 40 in my drafts. At least in the late 3rd to early 4th range there is a shot at profit with Olson. Particularly given he is just one season removed from a 1st rd performance. Also, Olson’s 2nd half of 2024 was excellent with a slash of .271/37/16/54/0. He still has top end EV and gets to the barrel often. To be clear, I would rather grab one of the 90-125 ADP choices at first base but will end up with shares of Olson along the way. Steamer: .251/89/33/98/1
Pete Alonso FA: It’s likely Alonso’s peak years are behind him. Yet he should still have productive years to come. Drafting Alonso for 2025 probably ensures you a middling to low batting average along with lots of home runs and close to 200 combined runs / RBI. This is a player that posts almost everyday for his career. In fact, the only season Alonso has had less than 637 plate appearances is the shortened 2020. To be clear though, I would like a bit more for an ADP of 45. It’s just that given how quickly 1B dries up this is the price to pay for 2025. If Alonso does land back with the Mets there should be a boost in RBI with Juan Soto added to the lineup in front of him. Steamer: .242/87/36/98/4.
Christian Walker HOU: From a value and draft strategy standpoint I much prefer Walker at ADP 102 over my top 5 first basemen on this list. In fact, Walker’s Steamer projections are quite similar to Alonso’s despite going 5 rounds later. I don’t think that Walker has Alonso’s upside but I’m not discounting Walker getting a boost in Houston. Particularly with the Crawford Boxes as Walker does pull the ball 42% of the time. Steamer: .243/84/32/95/5
Spencer Steer CIN: I consistently target Steer in drafts despite arguably having the weakest offensive profile in my top 10 first basemen. I hear you asking why, so let me share. Steer has a good plate approach, knows his game so he gets the most out of his ability, and he’s an excellent baserunner. Those steals matter at a position bereft of them. Steer can add 20 steals to his 20 home run profile and that is unique for a first baseman. He does this while contributing solid counting stats and offering duel position eligibility. Projections are apparently taking Steer’s short 2022 debut into account so my expectation is for him to put up a season in line with his 162 game average .245/76/21/88/19. Steamer: .244/68/19/68/15
Vinnie Pasquantino KC: I have been on the Vinnie bandwagon since he was in AA. I loved the swing and approach then and feel the same way now. The main question on the table is what could a fully healthy season from Pasquantino look like? From a player that hit’s RH pitching (.267) and LH pitching (.268) equally well…Pasquantino’s 162 game average is .267/69/23/91/1 and I am betting there is more there. This will be his age 27 season and at least the top of the Royals lineup has dynamic pieces. With an ADP of 115 I keep hoping to grab shares but so far have not because I keep landing Spencer Steer and Christian Walker a bit before him but in this same range. Steamer: .270/83/26/90/2
Cody Bellinger NYY: 2019 is the clear outlier in Bellinger’s career and it earned him an MVP. He’s now settled into a different caliber player, yet one that is still quietly productive. Bellinger will play full-time in New York and will likely hit in the middle of the lineup. He will also benefit from a ballpark better suited for his swing. In fact, his 18 home runs last year would have been 24 home runs if he had played all of his games in Yankee Stadium. At an ADP of 118 you have room for profit if Bellinger lands somewhere between his 2023 and 2024 performances. And I am taking the over on his projections, across the board. Steamer: .254/71/23/78/12
Josh Naylor ARI: At an ADP of 94 I would rather skip Naylor and land Walker, Steer, Pasquantino, Bellinger or even Burger. Naylor loaded up on counting stats in 2024. His increased playing time certainly factored in and that should continue with the move to Arizona. The home park change is basically neutral to slightly down, so not a big factor there. My reasoning to pass Naylor around his ADP is that I see him producing at or near his projection. Which I can match or exceed 1-3 rounds later. Steamer: .268/79/24/88/7
Jake Burger TEX and Triston Casas BOS: Throwing a couple bonus players into my top 10 as Burger and Casas belong in this group of seven where I prefer to grab my first baseman. Burger has an ADP of 123 and Casas 101. Burger is my last one to grab in this group and he gives you the added benefit of 3B eligibility. Casas at ADP 101 has been a regular fade for me and now it seems others may feel similar as I have seen him start to slide in drafts. My issue is I’m not sold on the player, and I worry about why there is so much trade talk around a young power hitter, and I still remember how disinterested he seemed at times during his AFL stint. Burger Steamer: .243/71/28/80/2 and Casas Steamer: .245/82/28/86/2
Targets outside of the Top 10:
Yandy Diaz TAM still looks a lot like the player that delivered such a great return for fantasy baseball teams (and the Rays!) in 2023. So, of course, he was pushed up in drafts in 2024 and the counting stats faded hard. Diaz can now be had at an ADP of 201 and that sets the table for profit once again. Don’t get me wrong, this is a pick for your CI or backup 1B…not your primary. But if Diaz just delivers to his projection you will be pretty thrilled at current cost. Steamer: .286/95/19/69/3
I place bonus value on multi-position eligibility. Particularly in draft and hold formats. So a guy like Jake Cronenworth SD gets a boost and certainly comes at a reasonable price in ADP 265. There’s basically zero chance he does anything special yet he will quietly put up counting stats during the weeks you need to plug him into your lineup. Steamer: .242/69/15/68/5
Ryan Mountcastle BAL has my attention because he appears to have close to a FT role, he hits the ball hard, and Baltimore has pulled their LF fence in. Mountcastle is more of an all-fields hitter but it’s safe to assume that there will be some additional LF fly balls that find the seats this year. At an ADP of 258 there is room for Mountcastle to put up a top 15 1B season if he starts hot and holds the playing time. Steamer: .257/59/20/65/3
Tyler Soderstrom SAC is one of my favorite later targets this year. The dude is going at pick 299 with a range of 192 - 430. Soderstrom will also likely have a lot of traffic on base with Butler and Rooker hitting in front of him. He brings a 91.9 average EV, barrel’s almost 15% of the time, and carried a hard hit rate over 49%. It’s particularly impressive in the context that he did this in his age 22 season while maintaining a K rate below 25% and a walk rate over 9%. I know, it’s a small sample. You’re right about that, just remember Soderstrom has the pedigree as a former 1st rd pick and he moved through the minors relatively quickly. Something else to chew on is what impact the ballpark in Sacremento might have on Soderstrom and all the other Athletics hitters. It’s going to be positive and we should count on him to out deliver his fairly moderate projections. Steamer: .231/62/24/70/2
Avoids outside of the Top 10:
Avoiding Luis Arraez SD will seem controversial to some and spot on to others. He’s polarizing and I have seem some great threads on X with this debated. I totally enjoy the real life player. But for fantasy baseball the approach of drafting Arraez is that he will be a big boost to your batting average and you can pair him with other players to cover the counting stats. I’m just not into working around guys that leave you that dry in multiple categories while only lifting you in one. I’ve always stayed away from the straight steal profiles like Billy Hamilton for the same reason. Arraez has an ADP of 178, which is a range that has a wealth of quality starting pitchers I would rather take. Steamer: .307/89/10/62/9 (counting stats feel a bit high as well)
Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN continues to be drafted around his ADP of 221 and I keep wondering what I’m missing. This is a player with a poor plate approach, who strikes out almost 29% of the time, has walked less than 5%, and quite possibly will not have an everyday role. I know, he crushed in the minors. But the hit tool is very suspect and I’m out until I see more. Steamer: .257/55/21/62/3
Unless Spencer Torkelson DET is traded we need to approach 2025 prepared for him to spend a good deal of the year in the minors or on the bench. The Tigers signed Gleyber Torres and have already said that Colt Keith will be working at first base. And we know Kerry Carpenter is the primary DH. This is a pretty huge fall for the former 2020 1st overall pick. While Torkelson’s story isn’t over, there’s just enough question marks for 2025 that he should need to fall well below his ADP of 299 to bring drafters back in. If it weren’t for the name recognition, Tork would likely be a 500+ pick at the moment. Steamer: .220/24/8/25/1
First base prospects to consider for 2025 only are pretty much dart throws hoping to find playing time. Miami could be interesting with Deyvison De Los Santos ADP 433 or Augustin Ramirez ADP 468 making the club out of spring training or receiving an early call up. Both are on the 40, it’s just hard to see what will motivate Miami to put the best team on the field at the expense of losing years of player control. There’s a chance that Nick Kurtz OAK or Tyler Locklear SEA see some action during 2025 it’s just really hard to justify using a roster spot for either at this point.
A non fantasy baseball note to wrap up our first base preview. The top of our list likely features 2 and possible 3 future Hall of Famers. Freddie Freeman is approaching a lock, particularly after his recent post-season grand slam heroics. And Bryce Harper will be in the Hall, the only question is whether he will end up playing more games at 1B or OF. Vladdy is durable, still young, and averaging 4.3 WAR per 162 games played. He at least has a foundation in place but there is a lot of work left to do for the Hall. Matt Olson would be another to consider but entering his age 31 season with 259 home runs, no MVP’s, and 32.8 career WAR doesn’t suggest a clear path. Another Brave, Fred McGriff, didn’t make the HOF until the Contemporary Era Committee elected him as part of the class of 2023. His career total’s of 493 home runs and 52.6 WAR likely represent a very strong outcome for Olson.
Check back for other position reviews as we get ramped up for the 2025 season. Second Base is up next!
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