Yankees, Nick G, Torkelson, Jacob Wilson & Tre Morgan
Yankees, Nick Gonzales, Torkelson, Jacob Wilson and Tre Morgan
Jun 7, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
We are headed into an almost full slate of MLB games this weekend. The exception is that the Phillies and Mets have the day off today. Scheduling quirks like this are still odd to me and from a fantasy standpoint they have to be factored in. I’m a big proponent of maximizing games played and innings pitched when possible. Missing games like this can add up over time.
There are two series that stand out above the rest this weekend. One is the Dodgers v Yankees and the other is the Mariners v Royals.
Dodgers v Yankees: Both are top 5 overall teams, lead their divisions, and have the big payrolls. The Yankees carry an 8 game winning streak into weekend play and have produced a MLB best +118 run differential. The Dodgers are 14 games over .500 and have a +85 run differential - but the stat that really got my attention is that the Dodgers are 5-1 against teams over .500. Great winning percentage no doubt, but I did not realize that they have played less than 10% of their games against teams over .500. The Phillies have also played only 6 games against +.500 opponents but most other teams are well over 20 games played. The Minnesota Twins, for example, have played 40 games against winning teams.
These are two star studded lineups and should make for a great watch. Something to keep an eye on is whether Juan Soto will play given his elbow issue. He’s having a great year and pitching to or pitching around Soto, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton has given opposing teams fits. Just last night the three combined for 7 walks and scored 4 runs. If the Yankees can lengthen the back end of their lineup it’s going to be incredibly difficult to pitch to them at all.
Mariners v Royals: These are two well matched teams. Both have strong pitching, particularly the Mariners starting staff. But the Royals have the better offense. In fact, the Royals have outscored the Mariners by 72 runs so far. Despite having a slightly better record than the M’s the Royals are in second place in the AL Central while the Mariners have a solid 5 game lead in the AL West. Another telling stat is the Royals +72 run differential compared to just +10 for the Mariners. If nothing else, tune in for Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodriguez - two of the games brightest.
The Pirates really haven’t played good baseball so far. Particularly not for a team that has legit young talent that includes flamethrowers Jared Jones and Paul Skenes. The offense has struggled, currently 20th in runs scored and 26th in OPS. This is the primary issue and it has me wondering about the Pirates processes for developing young hitters.
Promising young Pirates hitters like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Henry Davis, and Nick Gonzales have struggled at the big league level. Particularly compared to the expectations the team and industry has had for them.
Nick Gonzales recent breakout got me thinking about the Pirates hitting development. Gonzales was a .399 career hitter coming out of New Mexico State. He faired well in summer wood bat leagues and looked good at High A in his first pro season. But then things started to change for him. I’ve read reports that Gonzales made a point this off-season of working back to the swing and approach from his college days. Whatever he has done, he appears to be in a legit breakout. Compared to last year Gonzales is hitting the ball 4.5mph harder on average and is barreling it significantly more. It’s a small sample but the K’s are also down and the results are dramatically better.
Spencer Torkelson DET was sent back down to AAA on Jun 3. This is the 2020 1.1 pick who has 1,318 big league plate appearances to his credit. And he hit 31 home runs last year. So what happened? The simplified answer is that his pedigree and power likely have overshadowed the fact that he has not been a particularly good hitter. In fact, his career wRC+ is just 91. And it sits at only 71 for 2024. To be a big league first baseman, particularly a RH one, you have to hit. And Torkelson just hasn’t.
Torkelson is a guy I was out on after seeing him in the 2021 Arizona Fall League. He only played 7 games there due to injury but I was able to attend several of them and got a good look at him. What I saw at the time was an overly patient hitter who was also looking to pull almost regardless of pitch location. Torkelson will be back up in the big leagues at some point, likely this year, and hopefully with an adjusted approach. The Tigers need him to be successful.
The corresponding move for Torkelson’s demotion was a promotion for Justin-Henry Malloy. He’s a former Atlanta Brave, who originally was drafted in the 2021 6th rd. The Braves traded him to Detroit for RP Joe Jimenez and it was a deal I kinda hated. Not because of Jimenez, he’s a really solid reliever. I just hated to see the Braves part with Malloy, but I did get it since he had little chance to break the big league lineup in Atlanta.
Malloy has a great approach at the plate. He works his at bats and has remarkably delivered a +.400 OBP at every minor league stop other than single A. In fact, his career MILB OBP is an exceptional .410. It looks like the Tigers will use him primarily at DH with some appearances at an OF corner or possibly even an infield corner. He has some defensive versatility but he’s also not a strong defender anywhere.
Prospects:
Jacob Wilson was taken with the 6th overall pick last year, by the Oakland Athletics. And the A’s took some heat over this pick, with most analyst feeling there was better talent available. I have to admit, I felt the same. I just struggled to see Wilson being able to impact the baseball. But what I and so many others seemed to have missed is just how good his hit tool is. He’s already made it to AAA and is hitting .361 during his minor league career, and with a .419 OBP. Currently he also leads all of MILB with a 200 wRC+. This using a minimum 100 plate appearances to qualify.
I’ve not seen much of Wilson so far, really just some highlights. Reports suggest he is solid at SS on defense and there is certainly no real roadblock for him in Oakland. If the A’s are so inclined there seems to be no reason not to call Wilson up after the MLB trade deadline.
Tre Morgan was a key player for an amazing 2023 LSU Tiger team that included the two top picks in the draft - Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews. Morgan understandably didn’t get the Skenes / Crews hype but he was hugely important to the Tigers and he also earned a 3rd rd pick by the Tampa Bay Rays. And somehow he was still largely overlooked by almost all prospect rankers.
That is changing over the last few weeks as people are starting to take notice. Morgan has an elite approach at the plate seeing him walk 9% of the time while only striking out 11% during his time at A ball this year. It earned him a promotion to High A where he has walked 15% of the time so far and has struck out just 1 time in 52 plate appearances. He’s also hit .452 a High A. So, for Morgan’s MILB career he is sitting on a .368 BA, .455 OBP, and a 1.002 OPS. I expect the Rays to push Morgan to AA soon and recommend you go after him in deeper dynasty formats and put him on your watch list otherwise.
The Boston Red Sox recently promoted both Mathew Lugo and Nick Yorke from AA to AAA. Lugo is a 23yo SS and was a 2nd rd pick in 2019 out of the Carlos Beltran Academy. Yorke is a 22yo 2B drafted in the mid 1st rd in 2020 out of HS. Neither player would slot as a top prospect but both are future big league players. And both have offensive upside. The Red Sox have need up the middle as well, but there is also SS Marcelo Mayer playing well at AA and he is pretty clearly the Red Sox SS of the future. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lugo and possibly Yorke get big league time in 2024.
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