Early Fantasy Baseball Drafts Part 3: Olson, Luzardo, Prospects and Saves
Dec 27, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
Early Fantasy Baseball Drafts Part 3:
I’ve recently posted a couple of articles discussing early fantasy baseball drafts for 2025. I’m now into my 5th draft using the NFBC $50s format, which has 12 teams of 50 players each. That’s 600 players drafted so the format provides a great opportunity to shape rankers as we head into draft season.
The first article covered the top 150 ADP range and it can be found here: https://www.3-1count.com/blog/early-fantasy-baseball-drafts-ohtani-witt-jr-judge-skenes-amp-more
The second article focused on players in the 150-300 ADP range and it’s available here: https://www.3-1count.com/blog/fantasy-baseball-drafts-matt-shaw-sanchez-saves-steals-sps
For part three we will cover the back half (ish) of the draft using the NFBC $50s ADP since Dec 1. This covers 8 drafts and is enough for us to get a feel for how players are moving. We’ll touch on players to target, some to avoid, positional depth, and playing time considerations. We will also dip a bit into strategies for the later part of draft and holds.
First up, I have Tyler Soderstrom SAC on my target list yet I am 0 for 4 so far. Soderstrom plays 1st, which dries up quickly this year. And most fantasy players have already spotted this issue. Boosting Soderstrom’s profile is the A’s moving to what should be a friendlier park for hitters in Sacremento. Additionally, Soderstrom hit the ball very hard (91.9EV) at the big league level last year and found the barrel an impressive 14.6% of the time. Take these factors and combine them with what should be a full time role and you have the table set for a 25+ HR candidate going off at pick 287. That’s an enticing risk/reward profile. Soderstrom shouldn’t be your starting 1B, or even your CI. But he makes for a strong depth piece with upside.
I was intrigued with Reese Olson DET last year and the more I dig into his profile this year the more I want to grab shares. He currently lines up as the Tigers #2 starter behind Tarik Skubal and barring an acquisition he should hold that spot in the rotation. We all know Comerica Park is a great ballpark to pitch in but did you know that Olson was equally good on the road? He had a 3.54 ERA at home and 3.51 on the road. Olson comes at you with a 5 pitch mix but makes his living with his slider and changeup. Both have a whiff rate over 42% and the slider held hitters to a .143 BA. Olson is going at pick 273 on average, with a range of 258-295. My guess is that you better grab him by pick 265 to have any chance at this point.
Bobby Miller LAD 282 (247-339) throws the ball really, really hard. In fact, with a fastball averaging 97.5mph Miller was in the 94th percentile last year. He also gets great extension, which increases the implied velocity. That should be a great foundation for a pitcher but just about everything else for Miller didn’t work. In fact, his changeup is the only pitch hitters didn’t deliver at least a .327 average against in 2024.
Miller is still carrying a good deal of hype with him yet is currently projecting only 13 big league starts in 2025 based on Steamer. And that’s the main reason I am in avoid mode - it’s just hard to see a steady role in the rotation for him. That heat is a big building block I just don’t want to make the bet that 2025 is the year he comes around.
For Ryne Nelson ARI what you need to know is that he was really quite good in the 2nd half of ’24. With projection systems taking the larger body of work into consideration it can be hard to see that something material changed with Nelson. At pick 298 it doesn’t cost you a ton to bet he will be closer to his 2nd half self (3.23era, 1.03 whip, with 67 K’s / 64 IP) than his ugly 1st half.
I had been adding Jesus Luzardo PHI shares pre-trade and now I even like his situation even better. There is a bit of ballpark caution going from Miami to Philly but the new team context has to offset much of that. This is a risk/reward play with Luzardo climbing to pick 300 while having the ability to be a top 40ish starter.
I have seen and tried a lot of different approaches when it comes to catchers in draft and hold. If you grab an early guy you get outsized production versus later catcher options but you pay quite a premium for it versus production available at other positions. If you wait too long you can end up dangerously gapped in production versus the early guys at catcher. So, what to do? My take has generally been to get one of the first 8-10 catchers and then back it up with someone that might represent a value.
Patrick Bailey SF is at the back end of the C group I have offering some value. And it’s a bit sneaky. He has the job in San Francisco and as a switch-hitter isn’t limited to a straight platoon although his performance last year might suggest he should take the day off when a lefty toes the rubber. The thing to be aware of is that Bailey had a strong 2024 1st half, hitting .283 with 19 XBH’s. And then he collapsed in the 2nd half. Bailey is strong defensively, he’ll play even if he struggles at the plate. But looking at his Baseball Savant page there is reason to think Bailey will hit closer to his first half last year than his 2nd half. And, if so, you’re easily getting a 100 rd discount when grabbing Bailey at his current pick of 328. I have 3 shares in my 4 completed drafts and set the floor at pick 396 in my last one.
Patrick Bailey 2024 Baseball Savant
This is not a Daulton Varsho TOR truther paragraph. It’s just me saying that at pick 335 you have a chance to put 30+ combined home runs and steals on your bench. Varsho plays great defense, so he’s going to play. As a career .225 hitter that’s what you are going to get. But if you have a starter go down at least Varsho will chip in counting stats during the weeks you need him. These are the kind of guys that can help keep you in the thick of your league during tough times.
I’m not saying Brayan Rocchio CLE has an Andres Gimenez TOR season in him. But it’s a low risk roll of the dice for a full time player in an offense that is willing to run. Rocchio had an awful .206 BA last year that can be explained in part by a .245 BABIP. Steamer says .245/55/10/49/13 for 2025. Performing at or hopefully above this level makes for at least an interesting piece this late (414) in the draft. For that matter, you can also grab a similarly valued JP Crawford SEA (428) in this range.
Nick Yorke PIT is the kind of player I tend to pull for and hopefully that’s not overly influencing me here. The BIG IF, is whether Yorke will get the opportunity to establish himself in Pittsburgh. The Pirates have struggled to commit to their young players in recent years, particularly in the MI. Right now IKF is the starting SS and Nick Gonzales PIT looks to have the upper hand at 2B. That leaves Yorke floating between 2B, 3B and possibly the OF. Keep in mind this is a player that delivered 14 home runs and 23 steals across 3 levels last year - while keeping his K rate down around 20%. At pick 444 Yorke sure feels like a low risk upside pick.
Are you looking for a very late starting pitcher that has a rotation spot and upside for an ERA under 4.00? Allow me to introduce you to Jordan Hicks SF. He’s currently at pick 531 with a range of 453 - 579. Hicks even went un-drafted in one of the Dec NFBC $50s.
What’s so interesting about Jordan Hicks you ask?
Rotation spot secure
Good pitchers park
3.79 era over 95 IP in the first half of 2024
Two legit out pitches in his split and sweeper
Still just 28yo with only 28 MLB starts
Jordan Hicks 2024
This is much, much more than most picks 400+ offer. And what if Hicks finds an alternative to his ineffective sinker? And/or he adjusts his pitch mix? So far I am 3 for 4 adding Hicks, grabbing him at picks 540, 531 and 576.
Valuing prospects that haven’t debuted at the big league level can be a really interesting part of the draft and hold format. Without in-season free agency you have to make your call preseason. And that decision is largely based on a combination of proximity, potential path to playing time, and impact range. Usually players like this will be drafted towards the back half and this reflects all the variables involved. The impact can be huge as seen with Paul Skenes last year or it can become a pick with zero return. Which probably happens more often than any of us would care to consider.
For 2025, my current top target is Matt Shaw CHC and I covered him in part two of this series. So, beyond Shaw the players I am most interested in at their pick range are Bubba Chandler PIT 270, Kristian Campbell BOS 280, Quinn Mathews STL 437, Colby Thomas SAC 441 and Drake Baldwin ATL 504.
Others to consider are Roman Anthony BOS 277, Andrew Painter PHI 289 (PHI recently stated 2nd half arrival at best so he should fall), Dalton Rushing LAD 334, Chase DeLauter CLE 377, Edgar Quero CWS 392, Caleb Durbin MLW 411, Deyvison De Los Santos MIA 412, Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN 453, Augustin Ramirez MIA 465 and Kyle Teel CWS 534. A few additional players to consider are Colson Montgomery CWS 492, Christian Moore LAA, Nick Kurtz SAC 500, Carson Williams TB 583. This group has not been taken in all of the Dec $50s drafts.
So far my yet to debut player shares have been mostly Quinn Mathews, Drake Baldwin, Colson Montgomery and Carson Williams. It’s not a coincidence that they fall in the lower cost range of the group. It’s a late shot to capture a bit of lightening towards the end of the draft.
Every year there are a number of players that represent possible playing time traps and this year is no exception. If a player is locked in a platoon or may be supplanted in a role I generally just avoid them. My thinking here is that losing the cumulative at bats will cost category points and that I would rather draft a productive player or take a shot on an upside play versus locking into an underperforming situation. None of these players are likely to be drafted as a fantasy starter regardless.
So, players on my “it’s a trap” list include:
Jonathan Aranda TB 314, Spencer Horwitz PIT 319, Heston Kjerstad BAL 322, Andy Pages LAD 325, Luke Raley SEA 326, Otto Lopez MIA 339, Ryan O’Hearn BAL 340, Jonny DeLuca TAM 345, Thairo Estrada SF 355, Kyle Manzardo CLE 358, Starling Marte NYM 360, Jose Miranda MIN 364, Pavin Smith ARI 367, Dylan Moore SEA 371, David Hamilton BOS 372, Josh Smith TEX 373, Jhonkensy Noel CLE 384, MJ Melendez KC 402, Sal Frelick MLW 403, Alek Thomas ARI 458, and Seth Brown OAK 464.
Most of us hate chasing saves as you almost always end up over paying. Yet if you don’t do it you cough up a category making it really difficult to win your league. In draft and hold I have taken to generally grabbing a top 10 closer, someone I feel is safe role wise. And then I wait for a value or I load up on guys that may earn or fall into a closers role at some point.
Here are some “maybe” arms to consider and I’ve highlighted a few I have targeted more frequently: Griffin Jax MIN 284, Jason Foley DET 291, Aroldis Chapman BOS 311, Edwin Uceta TAM 336, Chad Green 342, Camilo Doval SF 346, Orion Kerkering PHI 348, Evan Phillips LAD 363, Cade Smith CLE 375, Justin Slaten BOS 391, Yimi Garcia TOR 407, Calvin Faucher MIA 423, Tyler Holton DET 440, Jason Adam SD 418, Beau Brieske DET 442, Jesus Tinoco MIA 467, Seranthony Dominguez BAL 514, and Prelander Berroa CWS 560.
Staying on bullpens for just a bit longer. I am really curious how the Reds pen plays out for 2025. Current closer Alexis Diaz CIN has not been good and I wouldn’t touch him anywhere near his current ADP of 136. Diaz has a career walk rate of just under 5 per inning and has seen a three year K/9 and ERA downtrend. His xFIP has also worsened each year hitting an ugly 5.06 in 2024. And maybe most alarming, Diaz has seen a three year slide on his fastball velocity (95.7, 94.5, 93.9).
All of this screams “who’s next”. I thought I was onto a great dark horse closer grabbing shares of Fernando Cruz NYY at 550+. He has the same walks issue as Diaz but has an other worldly splitter for an out pitch. And he has used it to K 14/9 in his career. So, of course, the Yankees saw it too and grabbed Cruz to strengthen their pen. The Reds must have really wanted Jose Trevino as their back up catcher (for one year) to give up Cruz who is under team control until 2028.
So, who could slide into the Reds closer role if Alexis Diaz falters now? Maybe Tony Santillan CIN. He’s a former 2nd rd pick and struck out almost 14 per 9 last year while keeping his walk rate under 3 per 9. Santillan also has the gas as he averages 97.2mph on his fastball, which is 92nd percentile stuff. It’s a two pitch arsenal, with both his four seamer and slider carrying a 30% whiff rate and holding hitters to a below .200 BA. Santillan might outperform Diaz right now. He could also add another pitch (change?) and take a further step forward. So, for now, Santillan has become a “maybe” arm to target late in these draft and hold formats.
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