2025 Catcher Preview: Contreras Bros., Raleigh, Rutschman, Moreno and More
Jan 3, 2025
Author: 3-1Count.com
2025 Fantasy Baseball Focus on Catchers: Contreras Bros., Raleigh, Rutschman, Moreno and More
Let’s take a look at catchers from a redraft perspective for 2025. ADP’s are based on all NFBC 12 team completed drafts between Dec 16 and Jan 2 (total of 56). Projections are from Steamer.
William Contreras MLW: Easily my top C but comes at a steep price with a recent ADP of 29. I have him ranked even a bit higher than his ADP and base that on the separation he should provide from most other catchers. On raw stats it’s pricey to grab a top 10 catcher. What you are gunning for is the counting stat difference the top end of this group provides against the rest. Particularly in a two catcher league where weakness behind the plate can leave you a difficult deficit to overcome. Steamer: .276/86/25/86/7
Yainer Diaz HOU: I have Diaz as my 2nd catcher yet have landed zero shares so far. His ADP is 55 and at that point I have either grabbed William Contreras early or I’ve been more focused on the upside of Wyatt Langord or James Wood in this range. I’ve also picked up my 1st or 2nd SP in the 50’s. This probably means I’m not completely sold on Diaz this high. A couple of question marks here include how many extra AB’s at DH can he get with a healthy Yordan Alvarez filling that role most often? Another question is whether Diaz’s propensity to chase and not walk will catch up to him in 2025? Last note, if you are in an OBP league you have to push Diaz down a bit further (24 BB in 619 PA last year). Steamer: .280/67/21/78/2
Cal Raleigh SEA: Unlike with Diaz, I have been all over Raleigh so far. His ADP is 80 but he’s gone in the 70’s in each of my drafts so far. Like with Contreras at the top of our list I expect Raleigh to play almost every day thanks to DH’ing when he has a game off behind the plate. There aren’t many catchers that offer this lift in plate appearances and the added value can be significant. If I miss Contreras with my 3rd pick I have targeted Raleigh with a 7th rounder. The big difference between the two players is batting average and that creates the separation. So far I have 2 shares of Contreras and 2 of Raleigh out of my 5 completed draft and holds. Clearly working the “get an early catcher” approach. Steamer: .223/71/30/81/4
Willson Contreras STL: Staying on the theme of maxing plate appearances, Contreras reportedly will be the Cardinal’s full time 1B in 2025. This get’s really interesting as Contreras has always been a good hitter, carrying a career 121 wRC+. With a career 10% walk rate and a .461 SLG I’m all in for 2025 and already have two shares. Contreras has been steadily moving up ADP and is at 91 in recent drafts. You will likely have to grab him in the 80’s at this point though. Steamer: .246/76/24/79/6
Adley Rutschman BAL: I have Adley 5th on my catcher list and, like with Diaz, I just keep side stepping him when I have had a chance to add him. Rutschman’s plate approach was still solid in 2024 and he had a strong 1st half followed by an awful 2nd half. Maybe it was injury, maybe fatigue or something else. My expectation is that he will likely have a good to really good 2025. I just haven’t been able to pull the trigger at ADP 61. Adley has gone as early as 44 and as late as 83 in recent drafts. If he were available in the 80’s and I needed a C I feel like that’s probably my range atm. If you are in, grab him earlier than that though. PJ’s have Adley with the 2nd highest wRC+ for 2025 catchers at 124. Steamer: .261/84/20/70/2
Salvador Perez KC: I tend to operate fairly conservative in the earlier rounds. The approach is to minimize risk while still positioning for upside when possible. Perez flat produced in 2024 and has done so for most of his likely HOF career. He will DH and play some 1B so the extra AB’s will be there. And having Bobby Witt Jr. on the bases in front of you ramps up the RBI’s. Still, Perez will be playing in his age 35 season. He has a career 3.9% walk rate and will leave you with a 20+ run deficit versus similar catchers even if he stays healthy the whole season. So I would be interested in Perez in the late 8th or early 9th round. With a recent ADP of 74 it’s unlikely I see a share of Perez and that’s OK. Footnote here, Steamer has Perez scoring 73 runs despite the fact that in his 13 year career he has scored over 59 runs just one time. That was in his amazing 2021 season when he crossed the plate 88 times. Steamer: .260/73/26/87/1
Will Smith LAD: I have Smith ranked lower than most and it’s all about the Shohei Ohtani effect. Smith will fall 120-150 AB’s short of the top 6 catchers on my list since he no longer gets the DH AB’s he once enjoyed. This pushes his counting stats down and that has to be accounted for. I have Smith at #119 on my ranker and probably wouldn’t take him there unless it was a need driven move. I like the player, it’s not that. But at his current ADP of 90 there’s no room for profit. I would rather grab a SP or a strong hitter in this range and wait for Logan O’Hoppe, Tyler Stephenson or another catcher down the line. Steamer: .250/61/19/63/2
Shea Langeliers SAC: With an ADP of 115 Langeliers has taken a big draft jump YTY. That’s what a 29 home run performance behind the plate will do for you. We are talking about a player the Braves took 9th overall in the 2019 draft, so the pedigree is there. Even with an iffy plate approach Langeliers makes consistent hard contact. He’s also expected to have a heavy workload, so he should be around 500 plate appearances once again. Like with other Athletics hitters expect a boost given their change in home ballparks. Steamer: .226/59/24/69/4
Logan O’Hoppe LAA: Also with a recent ADP of 115 O’Hoppe is clearly on fantasy baseball’s radar. He’s been on mine ever since getting an extended look at him during his 2021 Arizona Fall League season. Before the Angels traded for Jorge Soler I was optimistic that O’Hoppe would absorb a good portion of their DH AB’s. He’ll still get some, but this reduction in plate appearances (while factored against his ADP) likely doesn’t leave a lot of upside in this pick range. Steamer’s PJ feels a bit lite to me, but not grossly off. And looking at projections for players like Will Smith and Logan O’Hoppe showcases why I keep grabbing one of my top 4 catchers this year. Steamer: .238/50/19/56/3
Tyler Stephenson CIN: Looking under the hood a bit Stephenson has increased his average EV and barrel rate each of the last 3 years. We know hitting the ball harder is good and it helped Stephenson deliver a strong return against his draft position in 2024. This year he’s coming off the board at ADP 139 and that may not leave room for profit. It just feels like a maxed out pick at this point of the draft. That isn’t taking a shot at Stephenson, I like the player and expect him to deliver a top 10ish catcher performance in 2025. Just know you are likely paying full retail, which we all do at times. Steamer: .253/59/16/62/2
Catchers outside the Top 10 to consider:
Targets:
At ADP 235 I want every share of Sean Murphy ATL I can grab. Not as my first catcher, but as my second…or even my third. Murphy is just one year removed from 3 quality seasons in a row. Matching his .251/65/21/68/0 slash in 2023 would greatly out deliver where he is being drafted in 2025. Health is the question mark and it’s a risk / reward that shines green. Steamer: .232/48/15/50/1
Gabriel Moreno ARI was one of my favorite players to watch in the 2021 Arizona Fall League. Even then he played with a presence about him and his advanced approach at the plate was already evident. I think there is another level for Moreno and the primary question is probably if his power will develop. At ADP 193 you aren’t having to break the bank to take a shot on Moreno. Steamer: .283/57/11/55/6
Patrick Bailey SF has an ADP all the way down at 313, with a pick range of 239 to 396 (that was mine, couldn’t believe he was hanging around). Bailey was the 13th overall pick in the 2020 draft and is still just 25yo. A switch hitter, who admittedly has struggled against lefties, Bailey should see a heavy work load in 2025. Even during his awful 2nd half last year Bailey kept playing because his defense is near elite. Keep in mind that Bailey also hit .283 in the first half and reached the big leagues known for a quality hit tool. I’m betting there is more there and will soak up as many shares as I can. Steamer: .238/47/49/47/4
Avoids:
I’m convinced I am missing something with Connor Wong BOS. I must be, right? I have him down around 350 on my ranker despite Wong carrying a 218 ADP. Here’s what I see…ugly advanced metrics that show a poor plate approach, soft contact, and that suggest 2024 was flukey. Wong has a career 28% K rate and also grades out pretty awful defensively. His backup, Christian Vazquez is far superior defensively and may end up taking more playing time than expected from Wong - who’s current ADP feels like a gross overpay. Steamer: .246/39/9/41/7 (projecting only 369 PA’s)
Bo Naylor CLE is priced fairly at ADP 290 and did deliver 13 home runs last year. Yet he regressed in 2024, including a K rate north of 31%. Naylor’s 24 home runs in 627 career plate appearances is notable, but it comes with a 28.7% K rate, a .211 BA and a below average 89 wRC+. In Naylor’s pick range you can find Mitch Keller PIT, JJ Bleday OAK, Alejandro Kirk TOR, Nestor Cortez MLW and many others that just feel more attractive. Steamer: .220/45/14/46/7
I’m steering clear of long time Braves favorite Travis d’Arnaud LAA mainly based upon age and role. d’Arnaud will be 36yo before opening day and is clearly the backup catcher for the Angels. It’s not the cost at ADP 372 that has me avoiding d’Arnaud but rather asking what’s the point in rostering him? If you are in a draft and hold and playing d’Arnaud then bad things have happened and his stats aren’t going to dig you out of it. If you have FAAB to work with you can grab d’Arnaud or someone like him pretty much whenever you need to. So I’d rather use the pick for full time depth at another position or pursue an upside lottery pick in what is round 30 range. Steamer: .237/29/10/32/1
Prospects:
Catching prospects that meaningfully produce are unicorns and should be drafted accordingly. This year we have a handful to consider that include Moises Ballesteros CHC, Drake Baldwin ATL, Agustin Ramirez MIA, and Edgar Quero CWS. I don’t expect any of this group to break camp with their big league team and I would be surprised if even one of them finds 300 big league at bats in 2025. Of the group I am more interested in Baldwin and Ramirez for the upcoming season and have even grabbed a few very late shares of Baldwin. My premise here is that Baldwin’s bat is big league ready and it’s possible an injury, trade, or situational dynamic could have him up earlier than expected. For catcher depth I would much rather invest a pick in the 500’s for an upside play like this then use a pick on someone with d’Arnaud’s profile around 370.
Check back for other position reviews as we get ramped up for the 2025 season!
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