NYY v BAL, Skenes, Riley, McGonigle, Brayden and Bubba
NYY v BAL, Skenes, Riley, McGonigle, Brayden and Bubba,
Jul 12, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
Cover image of Paul Skenes via ESPN X post
It’s Friday afternoon and we are back in the steamy South after a couple of much cooler weeks in Colorado. The scenery in Colorado was spectacular and the cool mornings and evenings were such a departure from the all day heat assault we get down here.
Big Meadow Reservoir near South Fork, CO
So, you know I’m itching to talk baseball and I have enough topics to fill up several posts. I will hit weekend matchups first and then touch on some other topics while saving more for early next week.
Weekend MLB Matchups
The Yankees vs. Orioles series is about as premium as it can get so of course game one features two pitchers with ERA’s over 6.50. We are talking Gerrit Cole SP (6.75) and promising rookie Cade Povich SP (6.51) but it’s still not what we would expect, right?
Both teams have actually pitched well on the season and they are only separated by 2 games in the standings. The Orioles are in first but the Yankees have a bit better run differential. These are two well matched teams and both should make the post-season. For me, I just love watching this young Orioles team - so I’m tuned in.
Another series to watch is the Royals vs Red Sox. It’s in Boston and watching a game in Fenway still just hits different - in all the good ways. The teams are evenly matched, similar records, and both fighting for the post season. Current standings have the Red Sox as the last Wild Card to make it and the Royals outside looking in just one game back. Game one features Cole Ragans SP on the mound for the Royals against Cooper Criswell SP/RP for BOS. This puts KC in a great position to grab the first game.
Player Spotlights
I intended to write about how exciting the Pirates top 3 starting pitchers are. So, of course, news just broke that Paul Skenes SP will start the All-Star game for the National League. I absolutely love this! MLB has long struggled to fully showcase exciting young players. By starting Skenes they are giving the fans what they want while not being too stretchy given that Skenes has been amazing so far.
So, on to the Pirates top 3 starters. Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, and Jared Jones (on IL) would be a problem for any team they face in the postseason. I’m not saying the Pirates make it this year…but I am saying they might. Currently Pittsburgh is only 2.5 back in the wildcard and that is likely their only way in given how good the Brewers are.
My hope is that the Pirates make additions to their team before the trade deadline. If I had to prioritize it would be an impact OF bat first and then another legit SP second. What a great story the Pirates making the post season would be - particularly with Keller, Skenes, and Jones sitting at the top of their rotation!
Devin Williams MLW RP will start his rehab assignment this weekend. Williams has been out all season due to back issues. His return will only strengthen the first place Brewers even further. My curiosity is what role Williams be deployed in. He’s been lights out as closer for the Brewers since mid 2022 and just filthy since his debut in 2019. We are talking about a career 1.89 era while averaging 14.17 K’s per 9.
So, will he return as closer? Almost assuredly. And he should. But Trevor Megill’s own dominating performance has at least made this interesting to watch. Megill has 18 saves against only one blown. In 29.1 IP he has given up 22 hits, 7 walks and only 1 home run on his way to a 1.53 ERA. At 6’8” tall and averaging 98.9 mph on his fastball he is an intimidating presence on the mound. With just a two pitch arsenal Megill pairs his high spin FB with a knuckle curve that is delivering a ridiculous 64.9% whiff rate.
Looking at hitting stats for the last 30 days there are a lot of familiar names at the top. There are also quite a few you wouldn’t expect. Twelve players have an OPS > 1.000 during this time and this includes Jose Miranda 3B MIN (1.130), Ian Happ OF CHC (1.117), Brandon Nimmo OF NYM (1.111), Francisco Alvarez C NYM (1.072), Jonathan India IF CIN (1.038), and our recent buy targets Austin Riley 3B ATL (1.136) and Brenton Doyle OF COL (1.014).
From a fantasy standpoint I probably still target Austin Riley and Brenton Doyle from this list. I would also be happy to add Jose Miranda, just really believing in the Twins team context right now. Happ and India tend to be too streaky for me to buy high on and I rarely chase catching unless just a pronounced need. Catchers can be less predictable hitters due to many factors - with frequency of injuries big and small topping the list.
One more note on Austin Riley. With Ronald Acuna Jr. out for the year I believe Riley is the key hitter for the Atlanta Braves offense. This is an MVP caliber player and as he heats up it takes pressure off the rest of the Braves lineup. One that needs help in the bottom 3rd if they are to run deep into the postseason. The Braves pitching has been great, the offense has not. Getting Michael Harris II back will help but something has to change at SS and likely with their 3rd outfielder.
Prospect Spotlight
The Atlanta Braves drafted catcher Drake Baldwin in the 3rd rd of the 2022 draft - out of Missouri State. Baldwin is a young 23yo and has already reached AAA. I’ve had my eye on him since 2022 and drafted him myself in my deepest dynasty league FYPD. Baldwin was my last pick in our draft that year and he felt like an upside play given he fell to me at pick 128 despite going at pick 96 in the real world.
What I saw then was an offensive oriented catcher with a left handed swing that l liked. Baldwin has ridden that swing and an improving approach at the plate to the highest level of the minors in under 3 years. He made his AAA debut with the Gwinnett Stripers on Jun 12 and has slashed .315/14/6/17/0 over 24 games. Making it more impressive he has walked 19% of the time against just a 13% K rate. This produces a .440 OBP and a 155 wRC+.
So, where does he go from here you ask? With Sean Murphy C ATL signed through 2028 it’s unlikely Baldwin has a path to a full time role with the Braves. This is why I feel like he could end up being used in a trade to help the Braves in the OF, or with another arm, or possibly at SS if they want to move on from Orlando Arcia and feel Nacho Alvarez SS/3B isn’t yet ready.
Speaking of MILB promotions, below are some names that appear ready to move up another level. It’s not meant to be a complete list, rather sharing some players that have had my attention recently:
Kevin McGonigle SS/2B DET has rolled through A ball and even at 19yo he is ready for the next level. I will be very surprised if McGonigle isn’t at High A after the All-Star break. At A ball he’s delivered a .333 BA with a 153 wRC+ while striking out less than 10% of the time. That screams he needs a new challenge. The word is now out on McGonigle in the fantasy world and he has shot up rankers. Still, he may be worth the overpay it would take to get him at this point. The plate skills appear to be elite.
Staying on DET for a moment, Jackson Jobe SP sure looks ready to move up. Currently at AA Jobe has been great over his time there. In his last two outings Jobe has gone 5 innings both times giving up a total of 5 hits and 1 run while striking out 16. Jobe needs to build up to go deeper in games and that may be the only thing holding him back at this point. Don’t be surprised if he skips AAA and sees big league action later this year.
Marcelo Mayer has the pedigree and appears to have learned everything needed at AA after returning there for his second year. He’s hitting .301 while cutting his K’s to below 20%. Mayer is the Red Sox SS of the future but I don’t think it is this year - most likely he reaches the big leagues by Jun 2025. I think a likely path is the Red Sox promote either Mathew Lugo MI or Nick Yorke 2B from AAA this year as they do need help in the middle. And that would open up a AAA spot for Mayer to get one step closer to Boston.
Felnin Celesten is just 18yo and the Mariners might elect to have him finish the year in complex play before starting him at A ball next year. That said, Celesten certainly looks ready for the next level right now. He’s hitting .341, carrying a 146 wRC+ and keeping his strikeouts below 20%. Celesten is a already a top 100 prospect on many lists and I’m hoping he stays in the Mariners organization so I can see him come through AA in 2026.
James Triantos 2B CHC has rolled at AA this year. A 2nd rd pick in 2021 out of HS Triantos is still just 21yo. I don’t know how hard the Cubs will push him, particularly with Matt Shaw in the system and seemingly ahead of Triantos. Defense is probably the main question here as Triantos doesn’t seem to have a clear fit and is riding a bat first profile. In 2024 Triantos has split time between 2B (55 games), CF (7), and DH (13).
The Rays love shortstops and have a gem in Brayden Taylor. He was drafted in the 1st rd last year and is a young 21. So far this year Taylor has split time between SS (39) and 3B (39) while even adding two games at 2B. Where Taylor ends up defensively may have more to do with what the Rays need than anything else. And the bat looks like it will play regardless. With a 156 wRC+ in High A I expect Taylor to get bumped to AA soon. You never know with the Rays but he looks ready for the next level. Taylor is also a great target for dynasty leagues. This is a future 20/20 type with a primary development need of keeping his strikeouts down.
Teams are increasingly reluctant to burn quality innings pitched in the minors when they believe a pitcher can help them at the big league level. The Pirates were strategic with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones yet got both to the majors fairly quickly. Next up may be Bubba Chandler, a RHP drafted at the top of the 3rd rd in 2021. Chandler is handling AA and has improved his walk rate meaningfully, and this was a development area for him. If the Pirates continue to gain ground in the wildcard race they may elect to bring Chandler up for the rotation or pen. Doing this could allow them to focus more on acquiring the offensive help they need. It’s also possible he ends up traded, but that would be surprising. Dreaming on a rotation of Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Bubba Chandler has to have Pirates fans excited!
That’s it for today. I’m stopping here before this thing gets too long to read. A week without writing left me jabbering away. Thank you for taking the time to read along!
If you enjoyed this article please consider signing up for FREE email updates from 3-1Count.com. The link is at the bottom of this page. We will send you an email when new articles are published. For your protection, the system will require you to accept the subscription through a confirmation email once you have signed up. No spam, no cost - just baseball!
