Gunnar, Witt Jr., Brewers and Logan Evans
Gunnar, Witt Jr., Brewers and Logan Evans
May 31, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
May is coming to a close and MLB is now over 1/3 of the way through the season. So let’s number dive a bit and look at some interesting players and stats:
Gunnar Henderson is tied for the MLB lead in home runs at 18 and he has hit all of them from the leadoff spot. The MLB record for a leadoff hitter is 41, set last year by Ronald Acuna Jr. Gunnar is pacing to break the record and his projected slash line is fantasy gold at .258/106/45/104/17.
Looking at Gunnar’s BABIP (batting average balls in play) suggests that he should see a rise in BA over the rest of the season so consider this could get even better. Did I mention he is still only 22yo?
Also, I just love this Orioles lineup. It’s absolutely one of my favorite teams to watch this year. And as an LSU guy I definitely enjoy listening to Big Ben McDonald call many of these games for the O’s. McDonald was the 1.1 pick in 1989 out of LSU and racked up 20.5 WAR over parts of 9 seasons before injuries finally took their toll.
Speaking of teams I can’t get enough of - have you had a chance to just watch the Milwaukee Brewers play? Outside of Christian Yelich and Freddy Peralta this is a team comprised of players many casual fans may not be that familiar with. I’ve posted and written about the Brewers quite a few times over the last month and continue to believe they are not receiving near the recognition deserved. By record the Brewers are 7th in MLB at 33-23 and by run differential they are also 7th at +52. They are 5 games over .500 at home, 5 games over on the road, and 4 games over against +.500 teams.
What’s driving the Brewers success? They play smart baseball, have a deep if not flashy lineup, and every player seems committed to doing something to help the team win daily. Team baseball. I grew up a National League fan and this team feels like that type of baseball.
The Brewers also have an MVP candidate in C William Contreras and possibly the most unheralded excellent SS in baseball in Willy Adames. Bryce Turang brings a SS glove to 2B and is a menace on the bases. The bullpen is nasty even with Devin Williams on the IL and now add in rookie Robert Gasser to stretch the rotation. And that’s the one area that likely needs attention, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Brewers deal for a SP at some point in season.
The Elly De La Cruz hype train has calmed down quite a bit over recent weeks. A May slash of .216/10/1/5/13 will definitely do this. Add in a .303 OBP, .299 SLG, and a 33.6% K rate for May and you really get the picture. Elly’s a young, absurdly gifted player who does still have holes in his game. And if they are there, MLB pitchers will find them. Let’s see what June brings.
Bobby Witt Jr. is getting even better. His current slash of .309/49/9/40/16 is spectacular and supported by YTY growth pretty much anywhere you look under the hood. He’s walking more, striking out less, hitting the ball harder, and getting to more barrels. Looking at this I started wondering when would Jr. pass Sr. in career WAR. Bobby Witt was a very good major leaguer in his own right. He was the 3rd overall pick in 1985 by the Texas Rangers and delivered 27.8 WAR over a 15 year career on the mound. Jr. though, is doing things at a different level and is already sitting at 11.9 career WAR halfway through his 3rd season.
Staying on the SS theme a bit further let’s look at NYY Anthony Volpe. His 21 game hitting streak came to an end yesterday. During the streak Volpe hit .341/14/3/10/4 with a .378 OBP, .549 SLG, and a K rate of 18%. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto rightfully get a ton of attention for the Yankees but don’t overlook the great work Volpe is doing hitting in front of them.
I targeted Volpe everywhere I could in fantasy baseball this offseason. His .209 BA last year scared some away, but what I kept seeing was a player in his 22yo rookie season that delivered 21 home runs, 24 steals, stayed healthy and in the lineup, and appeared to have had a bit of bad luck mixed in. Volpe’s current pace is for a .283/106/17/67/30 slash.
Two guys who probably don’t get enough attention despite hitting the ball consistently hard are OF Taylor Ward LAA and OF Matt Vierling DET. Ward’s slash of .271/30/11/34/2 holds up with a 9% walk rate and a K rate of 22%. His average EV is 91 and he’s barreling 13.6% of the time. None of this is out of line with his past production. A similar story for Vierling, who’s slashing .288/23/7/28/0. Ward’s profile suggests he’s a stronger hitter than Vierling and his playing time seems more secure atm but either player could be a low cost acquisition that could help your fantasy team.
SP Tyler Glasnow LAD leads MLB in K’s with 95, because of course he does. My preseason bet on Glasnow to finish under 172.5 K’s is looking like a donation at this point. I made my call on durability and would almost always take the season under for any pitcher for that reason. Who’s second in K’s atm? None other than Jack Flaherty DET at 90. Flaherty was on virtually no ones radar for this kind of performance and neither was Garrett Crochet CWS tied for 3rd (with Zack Wheeler PHI) at 85.
Pitching has been incredibly difficult this year - in MLB and in fantasy. Injuries have helped turn the leaderboards into names many are less familiar with. In preseason would you have been able to call even two of the current top 6 ERA leaders (all under 2.00)? Not me, no way. The list is Seth Lugo KC, Ranger Suarez PHI, Shota Imanaga CHC, Tanner Houck BOS, Reese Olson DET, and Luis Gil NYY. I mean, I was all over Suarez and Imanaga in drafts and grabbed Olson when I could. But I didn’t expect this level of performance. I also have a share or two of Lugo and Gil but completed sidestepped Houck - really missed that one.
And now with news yesterday that Clarke Schmidt NYY and Zac Gallen ARI are injured it will get even tougher. Schmidt is out at least 4-6 weeks with a lat issue and we are waiting to hear on Gallen who hurt his hamstring. Gerrit Cole NYY is hoping to start a rehab assignment and Kris Bubic is quietly pitching well on his rehab. Neither are due back soon and there are questions with Bubic’s role when he does return.
The pitching injuries have been particularly difficult for draft and hold teams. For example, if your draft and hold is comprised of 50 players you may have drafted 15 SP’s. In past years that worked well enough, moving forward it may take 17-18 and this will push the cost of SP’s up even further. Particularly those depth pieces like Ranger Suarez who was regularly available around pick #330 this year.
It was a tough week for a couple of top 5 prospects as Junior Caminero TAM went down with a Grade 2 quad injury and James Wood WAS is now out with a hamstring. This will delay the promotion of either player and likely means at least Caminero is a drop in redraft formats. Another name to add to the injured prospect list is SP Owen Murphy ATL. He was the Braves first rd pick in 2020 and was destroying High A this year. Unfortunately news is out that Murphy is headed for TJS and will be out until at least mid 2025.
I’ll close out with a bit deeper look at Mariners prospect SP Logan Evans. This is not a player that has been on many prospect radars but he is starting to get some buzz. As a 12th rd pick last year he went widely unnoticed and only pitched 15 professional innings. The Mariners showed a great deal of confidence in Evans assigning him to AA to start 2024 and he has been up for the challenge.
Currently Evans is 5-2 over 51 innings with a 1.23 ERA and just over 8 K’s per 9. Data suggests the ERA may have some good fortune baked in but he has pitched well regardless. Evans doesn’t allow many baserunners and has shown good command throughout. When you watch him pitch you don’t get the feeling he is blowing hitters away. Instead you just start to realize that virtually no one is squaring the ball up against him. I was there for his outing against the Amarillo Sod Poodles (ARI) this week and it was more of the same. He threw 6 innings, gave up 3 hits, 1 walk, and no runs while striking out 6. That brings him to 12 IP, 7 hits, 1 walk, no runs, and 14 K’s over his last two outings. Keep in mind that the Travelers Dickey-Stephens Park is notoriously a pitchers park but also keep an eye on Logan Evans. He’s sure to rise on prospect lists and is an interesting young arm to target in dynasty. The Mariners know how to develop pitching.
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