Judge, Seager, Saves, Norby…and Jaison
Judge, Seager, Saves, Norby…and Jaison
Jun 3, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
There are a handful of really fun series coming up to start the week.
Brewers v Phillies: Both teams are comfortably in 1st place with 7 and 6.5 game leads respectively. Two excellent teams without obvious flaws. Both get it done on the mound and at the plate. The lineups are deep and I like the Brewers just a bit more here. However, the Phillies clearly have a stronger rotation and if I am looking for an area that needs attention it would be the Brewers rotation. Both teams play cohesively and do it the right way, which is probably a big part of why I am looking forward to this series so much.
Royals v Guardians: A battle for the AL Central, which currently has the Guardians up by 4 games. Despite the lead, the Royals feel like the more dangerous team but the Guardians just keep winning games. Manager Stephen Vogt deserves a ton of credit for what is happening in Cleveland. And the Royals need to take 2 of 3 here so they can keep chipping at the Guardians lead.
Braves v Red Sox: Maybe it’s because I am a life long Braves fan. Maybe it’s the Braves history in Boston. Or maybe it’s because these are two teams trying to figure out what the rest of the season will look like. The Braves are simply too good of a team not to get things rolling. The injuries of Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider are big, but the remaining roster is still a playoff team and that is where I expect they will be come end of season. Boston, however, is just in too strong of a division with the Yankees and Orioles both likely to eclipse 100 wins each this year.
Moving on and taking a look at individual performances:
Aaron Judge is on one of those all-time time heaters right now. Over his last 20 games Judge has put up a slash of .414/23/12/22/2. How good is this? Well, on a 162 game basis the slash would be .414/186/97/178/16. That would break a lot of records. Not surprisingly the Yankees are 16-4 over this run. This is a 32yo outfielder having ANOTHER career year. We should all just sit back and enjoy what he is doing.
There are two players joining Judge with an OPS over 1.000. Judge easily leads at 1.075, then teammate Juan Soto at 1.031, and Marcell Ozuna sneaking in at 1.001. In the neighborhood you will find Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, and Gunner Henderson - all over .950. I’m a big fan of OPS as it reflects a players ability to get on base and to do damage. Delivering an OPS over 1.000 for a full season is usually a short list of 2-3 players.
Only 10 players have a career OPS north of 1.000 and that includes several recent additions with inclusion of the Negro Leagues. Active leaders, unsurprisingly, are Mike Trout .991, Aaron Judge .989, and Juan Soto .952. Barry Bonds is the only modern player to exceed 1.000 for his career and he finished at 1.051. Add an asterisk if you like.
Did you notice Corey Seager heat up in May? For the month he slashed .287/15/11/21/0 and had a 1.047 OPS. With 16 walks and 27 hits I am trying to figure out how Seager only scored 15 runs given that 11 of them were on home runs he hit. So that’s 4 runs scored out of 32 other times on base?!?
I try to drill down and find names that might help us win fantasy leagues. Oakland has been scoring runs and two of the reasons are Brent Rooker and JJ Bleday. I’ve touched on Rooker before so let’s look at Bleday. This is the 1.4 pick in 2019 out of Vanderbilt. I don’t think Bleday is going to get confused for an elite hitter but there are interesting numbers here. For May he delivered .253/17/5/12/2 with a .353 OBP and an .887 OPS. That OPS is good for 19th in the league. And with a season walk rate over 10% and a K rate under 20% the approach looks improved. Bleday is an affordable hot hand with a shot at continuing to put up contributing numbers.
My only 100% share player from the NFBC turned it up dramatically in May. Colt Keith slashed .342/10/2/14/1 with a .388 OBP and .881 OPS. Look, we saw it coming. One, he can hit and he hit throughout the minors. Two, Keith’s underlying metrics were telling us for weeks that a breakout was coming. I love that the Tigers stuck with him and they are getting rewarded now. In fantasy go grab Keith if available, particularly in a dynasty format. He won’t run for you but he should consistently do most everything else.
I saw a post the other day suggesting it’s a good time to trade for Oneil Cruz given his struggles. The post mentioned trading Adames, Thairo Estrada, or Bryce Turang for Cruz. I bring it up here to say unless you are in a dynasty or keeper type format you may not want to do this. Cruz is striking out almost 40% of the time while also showing a complete inability to hit LHP. This has him strong side platooning already and the strike out rate could take him out altogether. He’s an explosive player but right now he can absolutely be pitched to. Willy Adames is somehow underrated and Bryce Turang is rightfully starting to get noticed. I like both over Cruz and would put Adames significantly higher. I would probably prefer Thairo as well for the reasons already mentioned on Cruz.
There are 12 SP’s that delivered a sub 2.00 ERA in May. Led by Chris Sale ATL who was 5-0 with a 0.56 ERA and then, of course, dropped an egg in his first June outing. A few names you might not expect to be on this list are Reese Olson DET, Austin Gomber COL, Garrett Crochet CWS, Mitch Keller PIT, Cal Quantrill COL, Ryan Weathers MIA, Gavin Stone LAD, and Reynaldo Lopez ATL. There’s no scenario where I am touching a Rockies starting pitcher and you probably shouldn’t either. From this short list I really like Olson and Lopez ROS and would look at the other non-Rockie SP’s if available. Just keep in mind team contexts and potential innings limits.
Chasing strikeouts in your league? Your May leaders were Dylan Cease, Chris Sale, Luis Gil, Seth Lugo, Tyler Glasnow, Jack Flaherty, Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Garrett Crochet and Pablo Lopez. It’s not a surprising group and each starter toed the rubber between 5 and 6 times during the month. Little chance any of these names are on your leagues waiver wire so it would take a trade to acquire one of them.
May saves leaders are mostly names you would think of. A couple of items that do stand out include Jhoan Duran’s bounce back logging 8 saves in the month, Trevor Megill with 7 saves in just 7 innings, Jalen Beeks appearing out of nowhere for 6 saves, and Kyle Finnegan knocking down 6 more to bring his season total to 16. I love Megill in the closer role but he’s unlikely to hold it once Devin Williams returns. And chase Jalen Beeks and Rockies saves at your own peril. Finnegan though, what a find.
Connor Norby is the latest Baltimore Oriole prospect to receive a big league promotion. Norby is expected to make his debut as early as tonight. A 2021 2nd rd pick Norby is a bat first player that fits in at 2B or corner outfield. This move has more to do with Jorge Mateo going on the IL for concussion protocol than it does Norby beating the door down. While he has performed well and steadily moved through the system Norby may not yet be a finished product. He is striking out 31% of the time this year and hit’s LHP better than RHP. Short of forcing the Orioles hand I would expect Norby to play situationally and likely head back to AAA for further seasoning once Mateo returns. The message, avoid the temptation to break the FAAB bank for this promotion. Bid smaller and if you win you can ride it and see what happens.
Did you know Milwaukee Brewers rookie Jackson Chourio has a younger brother in professional baseball? Jaison Chourio is just 19yo and currently playing at High A for the Cleveland Guardians. He’s been getting increased hype over the last month or so. In part due to the recognition that comes from having a top prospect older brother but also because he is looking like an exciting prospect in his own right. A switch hitting OF Jaison is currently at .288/32/2/27/17. This with an OBP of .411 and a 140 wRC+.
This is a speed over power profile and it’s reasonable to expect Jaison to handle any OF position needed. Splits are fairly even between the right and left sides, so no issues there. When I look at video I favor his LH swing even though both sides take more of a slash approach vs. driving the ball. Jaison is likely several years away from big league action so this is someone to keep an eye on or target in deep dynasty leagues. If his hype gets much hotter it might be a sell over buy scenario .
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