Tink Hence / Cardinals v Travelers Jun 5, 2024
Starting Line-Ups Jun 5, 2024
The Springfield Cardinals are in town for six games against the Arkansas Travelers. For the Travelers this is the back half of a 12 game home stand before they hit the road for six in Tulsa against the Drillers. The Cardinals and Travelers are battling for the Texas League North division and going into the series the Cardinals were up by just 1 game.
While I missed game 1 on Tuesday night I made sure to be there for game 2. Tink Hence was on the mound for the Cardinals. According to MLB.com Hence is the Cardinals #1 prospect and also #48 overall in baseball. Most industry rankers have him in a similar range and Fangraphs has Hence with a 50FV (future value) and ranked 96th overall.
Hence also comes with local fanfare in Arkansas as he was drafted in the 2020 2nd rd out of Watson Chapel HS in nearby Pine Bluff, AR. I noticed a number of Hence jerseys in the crowd and there was also more local media coverage than normal. Crowds have been solid for the Travelers and this one probably had a few more in attendance than normal. Arkansas has a deep history with the St. Louis Cardinals so there are still a lot of Cardinal fans here as well.
This wasn’t my first look at Hence though. I saw him pitch in relief several times during last years Arizona Fall League. Hence’s stuff looked really good in relief during the AFL and I felt at the time his body size and pitch mix both may line up more for high leverage relief than for a starting pitchers role.
The Cardinals continue to commit to Hence as a starter and that is all he has done over his three seasons outside of complex league play. During this time he has made 50 starts delivering a total of 202 innings. That’s 4 innings per start and speaks to one of the concerns I have for him in this role. Going deep into games is very demanding physically and usually larger framed pitchers hold up better.
Fangraphs has Hence using a 3 pitch arsenal that includes a change-up, slider, and fastball. This is consistent to what I saw tonight where he pitched off of the off-speed and seemed to only work in a few fastballs. The change was 86-88mph, slider 72-77, and the fastball touched 94. I’ve mentioned before that the gun at Dickey-Stephens Park is inconsistent and likely a bit slow. So take these reads with a grain of salt.
Hence sailed through the 1st using only 11 pitches (8 strikes) to move through Harry Ford, Cole Young, and Spencer Packard. You can see his full 1st inning in the video I shot below. The 2nd inning was more of a struggle though. Hence threw 24 pitches and only 12 for strikes, giving up a walk, 2 hits, and one run in the process.
Unfortunately, this was all we saw of Hence tonight. He was pulled after two innings. Part of this may have been the long time he had to sit during his teams at bats but there may have been another more important reason. Hence didn’t seem sharp, particularly in the 2nd inning and I was told there might be an injury or soreness that he is nursing right now. If that is indeed the case, pulling him after 2 innings was the right thing.
My summary takeaway from another limited look at Hence is that it’s still easier for me to see him in a high leverage bullpen role as opposed to a major league starting pitcher. Look, Hence has been very good this year at AA delivering a 3.19 ERA and almost 12 K’s per 9. And at 21yo he is young for the level. But he is averaging less than 5 innings per start and the pitch mix questions stand for me. I know the Cardinals are committed to him as a starter and I am fairly certain that will at least be the way he begins his big league career. Which is more likely to happen in 2025 versus this year.
Beyond Hence what mostly stood out from the game was bad defense that led to 4 errors between the two teams. The Cardinals walked away with this one, winning 6-1. And they probably have the better offense in general, even though it doesn’t include prospects the caliber of the Travelers Harry Ford or Cole Young.
Here’s a few other notes from the game:
RP Jack Ralston came in after Hence was pulled. Ralston is a 26yo drafted in rd 7 of the 2019 draft. He’s out of UCLA and has primarily been a reliever in the minors. I remember Ralston when he was drafted and even took a flyer on him in my deepest dynasty league. While he was effective last night, going 3 innings giving up no hits, it’s generally been a grind for Ralston. He has an extreme over the top and hitchy delivery. One that will make consistency and command very difficult to find - and it has been for him, walking over 7 per 9 this year. The deceptiveness in his delivery plays up for him but it’s hard to see him going far without further changes.
Harry Ford had a quiet night at DH. He was 0-4 with a BB and a K. I believe the Travs were down either 5-1 or 6-1 when Ford walked and the fact he was immediately picked off first base sort of sums up the sloppy play all around.
Cole Young was 1-5 with a K. He did make a heads up play at SS throwing behind a runner at 3B and getting the out call. The runner was safe, the call was missed, but regardless of outcome it was just a quick heads up play by Young. I don’t know if he primarily plays SS or 2B when he gets to the big leagues but I do know this is a talented and smart defender. Just about every night I find myself saying that was a really good play for Young.
Ben Williamson, who I have been keeping a close eye on since his promotion, had the night off. Through 13 AA games Williamson is hitting .275 with a .383 OBP. His K rate has spiked a bit to 27% and that type of jump is not unusual going from High A to AA. The pitching is significantly better at AA.
I expect to be back at the park tomorrow night for Edwin Nunez going against Reid VanScoter. Hoping the Cardinal’s are still wearing their baby blue jerseys - it’s a great throw back look!
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